Local government strand abstracts

Demographic projections for local government: Tuesday 10 September, 11.00am

The production of small area population estimates and forecasts for customised geographies
Sally Kenyon, Hampshire County Council

This presentation will outline the data sources and methods used to produce customised population estimates, forecasts and projections for non-standard geographies. These include emergency planning zones, fire station catchments, flood zones, population within a distance of a point and school catchments. The presentation will also touch on the types of demography products produced by Hampshire County Council, their use in planning and policy and the threats to their existence.

sally.kenyon@hants.gov.uk

Population forecasting and demographic change in Luton
Eddie Holmes, Luton Borough Council

Luton has experienced strong population growth through a high birth rate and high levels of inward migration leading to pressure on housing, schools and services. The Luton local plan requires population and household projections and the education department require school place forecasts. The paper looks at the demographic issues surrounding Luton such as the under-estimation of the population in the mid-year estimates, measuring migration into Luton, population growth, fertility rates of the different ethnic groups and the implications of the population growth for school place provision, housing and demand for services. The paper looks at the results of the four different population forecasting scenarios for Luton which are trend migration, high migration, net-nil migration and a housing constrained scenario. Future issues are also looked at such as the implications of future migration and the housing benefit changes. The housing benefit changes could lead to extra population pressure for Luton with people moving from London to an area with cheaper rents.

edward.holmes@luton.gov.uk

Demographic projections for areas at risk of coastal flooding
David George, Lincolnshire County Council

Demographic projections for areas at risk of coastal flooding David George, Lincolnshire County Council Climate change poses an increasing risk to the population in low-lying areas along the east coast of England. The Lincolnshire Coastal Study, covering its three coastal Districts, was published in 2010 and recommended a strategic aim for housing development in the zones of highest flood risk to be of a level and type designed to keep the population broadly stable. To quantify this level of development and assess it against other trend based and policy scenarios for Local Plans in the area the County Council commissioned Edge Analytics to run a range of scenarios up to 2031 for the flood risk zones in each District using the POPGROUP suite of demographic forecasting models. These were completed in March 2011. This paper will describe:- • the technical challenges of running projections for bespoke areas based on Output Areas and, • how the results have informed Local Plans since then. Using that data, East Lindsey District Council has consulted on their Draft Core Strategy and the Joint Planning Unit covering Boston and South Holland will have published theirs by the time of the conference. It is hoped that by then work will have been undertaken to update the projections to check against the proposed levels of housing, using the results of the 2011 Census. All three Districts have seen major revisions to their 2010 Indicative Mid-Year Estimates based populations following the release of the 2011 Census.

 david.george@lincolnshire.gov.uk

Local government: Wednesday 11 September, 9.00am

Estimating population yield from new housing development
William Tonkiss, Ben Corr, Richard Cameron, Greater London Authority

The need to accurately predict the size and characteristics of new populations arising from housing development is well understood by local authority planners and private sector service providers alike. The GLA Intelligence Unit has used recent releases of 2011 Census data to assess past trends in population yield and to develop an evidence base for use by the London Plan team in setting housing targets, and by local authorities in negotiations with housing developers. The presentation focuses on the methodology, challenges and results of this project which seeks to transform the way population yield is understood in London.

william.tonkiss@london.gov.uk

Developing and running a local authority pupil projection models
Piers Elias, Tees Valley Unlimited

This talk looks at the processes and challenges of developing and running a Pupil Projection Model. Tees Valley Unlimited provide projections for all publicly funded Primary and Secondary schools in the Tees Valley – some 200 primary and 40 secondary schools with over 100,000 pupils – and have done so since the late 1970s when Cleveland County existed. The old Fortran model has long since been replaced with a much more transparent excel based model which has been in place since 1997 and has developed over the years with the emergence of

1. Alternative data sources such as ONS Postcode Birth Data, GP Patient Data; new legislation on parental preference; the disappearance of Infant and Junior Schools; the introduction and rapid expansion of Academies and now Free Schools and

2. New technologies, mainly GIS. With the emergence of Local Plans and Infrastructure Projects looking into the longer term, the model and outputs are coming under greater scrutiny, particularly on developer contributions, and its original purpose of providing DfES with projections for 7 years ahead in Primary and 5 years ahead in secondary has been superseded by planning requirements and alternative scenario building.

piers.elias@teesvalleyunlimited.gov.uk

Migration and the city regions of England and Wales
Tony Champion, Mike Coombes. Centre for Urban & Regional Development Studies (CURDS), Newcastle University

The UK’s switch from net emigration to net immigration, along with changes in the origins of immigrant flows and alterations in the patterning of internal migration, have substantially altered the context of population change for its cities. The aim of this paper is to document the recent migration dynamics of England and Wales and examine the way in which the population profiles of places reflect their history of migration. The primary geographical framework is the 38 CURDS City Regions (CRs), using a 4-way classification of the 25 largest of these (Gateway, Stronger, Moderate and Weaker) developed for a previous study plus a fifth residual category of Smaller CRs. The empirical part of the paper begins with a decomposition of the migration component of population change 2001-2011 into its international and internal elements for the 5 CR types, using the ONS’s official components of change data as revised in the light of the 2011 Census. Then data from the 2001 Census is used to compare the profiles of the CRs’ populations in terms of the proportion of overseas-born, the latter’s origins and their year of arrival. Further insights into the patterning of recent immigration are obtained from NINO registrations, while the role of internal migration is explored using data on the age of migrants from the NHS Central Register and Patient Register Dataset. Explanations for the patterns revealed include differences between the CR types in the performance of their economies.

tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk  
 

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