Cognitive function in normal-weight, overweight, and obese elderly: A cross-country analysis
Valeria Bordone, Vienna University of Economics & Business; Daniela Weber, IIASA; Vegard Skirbekk, IIASA
Every Year the World Health Organisation (WHO) reports growing numbers of overweight and obese adults in both the developed and the developing areas of the world. At the same time, world population is ageing and the focus on health and labour productivity requires attention. Given its public health implications, it is of high interest to further explore the relationship between health and human capital in later life. We therefore analyse the relation between body mass index (BMI) and cognitive skills by gender over the age of 65. Particularly interesting is an adjusted worldwide focus, which includes Europe and the USA as well as Asian and African societies. We use four indicators of cognitive skills as dependent variables: fluency, immediate recall, delayed recall and digits. For each of them, we run generalized linear regressions including instrumental variable estimates to study the association between the cognitive indicator and BMI, separately for males and females. Preliminary descriptive results based on the Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) show a clear negative association between BMI and cognitive abilities at old age, with overweight and obese people reporting higher levels of cognitive impairment in Western countries, Mexico and Russia. This relation holds especially for women rather than men. Hence, maintaining the BMI at normal levels in midlife and old age might represent a key strategy for avoiding a steep cognitive decline.
Email: valeria.bordone@wu.ac.at
Is fertility decline stalling in Jordan?
Valeria Cetorelli, London School of Economics
During the 1960s and 1970s, the total fertility rate in Jordan was above 8 children per woman. Since the 1980s, the country has entered a rather rapid fertility transition, with the TFR dropping to approximately 4 children per woman in the late 1990s. However, according to recent Demographic and Health Surveys, the declining trend has apparently halted in the early 2000s and fertility seems to have remained constant during the past decade at a rate exceeding 3.5 children per woman. Previous studies have identified cases of fertility stall in a number of mid-transitional countries. Several of these stalls have, nevertheless, been found to be spurious – i.e. related to data quality problems.
This research is the first to study the fertility stall in Jordan and to carry out a rigorous data analysis demonstrating its genuineness. An in-depth evaluation of data concerning age and dates of birthof women and their children shows they are only mildly affected by misreporting. The reconstruction of retrospective TFRs using Poisson regressions reveals no serious discrepancies across fertility estimates from consecutive surveys. Finally, the assessment, through a linear regression model, of a smoothed fertility trend covering a period of over 30 years leads to the conclusion that the rate of fertility decline during the last decade is not statistically different from zero. The stall is therefore real and not due to data errors.
E-mail: v.cetorelli@lse.ac.uk
Does anaemia coexist with under-nutrition among young children among Malawian households?
Lana Chikhungu, University of Southampton
Child under-nutrition has persisted in Malawi for many years. The estimate for under-five stunting in Malawi is at 48% whilst underweight is estimated at 22%. These levels are extremely high considering that the expected level of stunting and that of underweight for a well nourished population is 2% (ORC Macro, 2006). Iron deficiency, the main cause of anaemia is also high estimated at 61.5% (Shawa, 2010). Are the factors determining anaemia and under-nutrition the same?
Whilst previous studies have analysed the relationship between childhood diarrhoea or being unwell in the last two weeks and child under-nutrition in Malawi, the association between anaemia status of the child and stunting/underweight has not been analysed. This study uses the 2004 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey data to examine the association between anaemia and stunting as well as anaemia and under-weight in under-five children in Malawi.
Multivariate analysis results indicate that even after taking into account diarrhoea status and fever status of the child, being anaemic increases both the likelihood of being stunted and being underweight, and that it increases the likelihood of being stunted more than it does the likelihood of being underweight. Programmes that improve the anaemia status of children may therefore help in improving their stunting and underweight status as well.
Email: lcc1g08@soton.ac.uk
Improving the quality of international migration estimates to and from the UK
George Disney, University of Southamptn
In comparison with natural components of population change – births and deaths – international migration can exert a major influence on the size and composition of the UK's population. As such, measures of migration flows can provide Government with the information required to plan particular social policies (Raymer 2007). However, the various data sources that could be used to measure international migration into and out of the UK have significant limitations; including inconsistencies in availability, definitions and quality (Poulain et al 2006; Raymer and Willekens 2008). The main source of numbers on immigration and emigration from the UK comes from the International Passenger Survey (IPS). With its relatively small sample size, the patterns of migration taken from the IPS over time can be highly irregular, when one considers flows by country, age and sex. The aim of this poster is to investigate methods to improve the reliability of IPS estimates of the origins and destinations of migrants to and from the UK. The effectiveness of various methods will be explored and assessed. These include simple pooling of data over time and groups of countries; smoothing and weighting of flows according to population and overall levels of migration; and unsaturated log-linear models. Furthermore, the use of auxiliary data-sets to augment the IPS data and improve its reliability will be explored. Finally there will be a consideration of ways that one can quantify the extent to which the aforementioned techniques have improved the reliability of the estimates, and suggestions of future work.
Email: gd1e10@soton.ac.uk
Sexual behaviour and HIV prevalence over the life course in rural Malawi
Emily Freeman, London School of Economics; Philip Anglewicz, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine
This poster compares HIV prevalence and sexual behaviour of individuals aged 15-49 with those aged 50 years+ and 65 years+, and examines patterns of HIV risk and sexual behaviour over the life course in rural Malawi. We use data from the 2010 wave of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), a longitudinal panel survey collecting demographic, socioeconomic and health data in three regions of rural Malawi. Data were collected from around 4000 adults aged 15 and over. HIV infection remains a risk at older ages in rural Malawi. Prevalence at age 50 and older was 7.7% among men and 4.2% among women. Our data suggest that HIV infection in this population is likely to be sexually transmitted. Sexual activity remains considerable after age 49, 45% of women and 72% of men reporting having sex in the past year. Numbers of men and women's recent extramarital partners were not significantly different after age 50 from those reported before age 50. However our data suggest women may be less aware of their husband's extramarital partners at older ages. We demonstrate that in Malawi questions about sexuality and HIV testing can be offered to older adults in population-based studies without the risk of high non-response bias. This, coupled with our findings of considerable levels of HIV infection and sexual activity among older Malawians, suggests that individuals aged beyond 49 should and can be included in HIV/AIDS research and prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.
Email: E.Freeman@lse.ac.uk; panglewi@tulane.edu
Sex that gives and takes away: sexuality in older age in rural Malawi
Emily Freeman, London School of Economics
This poster deals with practices and beliefs about sex among older adults. It is part of a larger project on experiences and meanings of ageing in rural Malawi. Fieldwork was carried out between 2008 and 2010. Qualitative data were collected from men (n=20) and women (n=21) aged between 50 and 90 using novel in-depth multiple dependent interviews (n=135). Data analysis is thematic and makes comparisons across themes and individuals. The ageing body was viewed in terms of declining strength and potency, or 'heat'. Sex was understood both as requiring and as giving strength. On one hand, men and women understood declining desire for sex as a reflection of the body's 'cooling' with age, and declining strength to perform sex as a reflection of a decline in physical strength more generally. Women particularly discussed sex as another form of 'work' requiring bodily strength that must be balanced with other necessary work to be done in the household and garden. On the other hand, sex was understood to confirm or give strength. For men and women sex was seen as confirming the strength and contribution they were making to their households. For women, sex and semen was understood to replenish some of the strength and 'blood' lost as their bodies had aged. This research is one of few qualitative examinations of the ageing process in Africa. It posits the ageing body as central to understandings and experiences of ageing and sexuality in older age.
Email: E.Freeman@lse.ac.uk
Contraceptive choice, abortion and socio-economic status in Cambodia
Eleanor Hukin, London School of Economics
This research examines the relationship between socio-economic status, abortion and choice of contraceptive method. The research takes a mixed methods approach bringing together quantitative analysis of the Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey data and ethnographic research in Siem Reap Province Cambodia. Results of binary logistic regressions showed counter-intuitive findings: increased education and wealth are associated with increased likelihood of using traditional rather than
modern methods. Results of the ethnographic research explained the quantitative findings. Most women were concerned about the health side-effects of modern contraception, and also recognized the unreliability of traditional methods. Wealthier women were better able to deal with unintended pregnancies which may arise when using withdrawal or periodic abstinence. They know they have the option of a
safe abortion, which would not jeopardize their health and finances to a great degree. Therefore they were able to avoid widely perceived health risks of modern contraceptive methods. However economically disadvantaged women, equally concerned about side-effects, felt they could not risk another child or an abortion so opted for a more
reliable contraceptive method. There was low knowledge about the legality of abortion, where to access services, costs and safety. Rural women from economically disadvantaged backgrounds relied on traditional massage techniques and herbal drinks for abortion, perceiving other methods to be out of reach financially or less safe
than traditional abortion techniques. This dynamic between socio-economic status, traditional method use and abortion has important implications for policy makers, as traditional (less effective) contraceptives are becoming increasingly popular in Cambodia.
Email: efhukin@gmail.com
The Demography of Armed Conflict: Reconstructing Demographic Estimates before, during and in the aftermath of the 1998 –2004 D. R. Congo Armed Conflict
Richard Kapend, University of Southampton
In an effort to scientifically document and monitor the scale and scope of the recent armed conflict (1998-2004) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the International Rescue Committee (IRC), in conjunction with some of the world's leading pidemiologists, conducted a series of five surveys in the country over a seven years' period (2000 – 2007). Estimates of mortality generated from the IRC's surveys range from 3.3 million deaths between years 1998 and 2002, to 5.4 million deaths in the period between 1998 and 2007. Reflecting from the IRC's work, the present study aims to combine four different data sources – 1984 DRC Population Census, 1995 & 2001 DRC Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) – to reconstruct demographic estimates in the DRC around the conflict period (1998 –2007) and measure the extent of excess mortality or/and fertility deficit associated with the conflict period. A forward projection is to be conducted on the 1984 Census data at both national and sub-national level. Data from 1995 MICS1, 2001 MICS2 and 2007 DHS will be used as benchmark from which demographic profiles related to intercensal periods will be generated in order to estimate the extent and scope of demographic changes associated to the conflict period. Due to the fact that demographic profiles are likely to vary over the considered period, this paper will measure then propagate the level of uncertainty associated with the estimated range at both national and sub national levels.
Email: rtk105@soton.ac.uk
Breaking down cultural barriers to modern contraceptive use: A systematic review of intervention studies
Megan Ledger, University of Southampton; Zoë Matthews, University of Southampton; Ying Cheong, University of Southampton in collaboration with MNCAH, WHO, Geneva and Oxford Brookes UniversityContext: This study aims to identify and assess interventions which have addressed cultural barriers to the uptake of modern contraception, in order to improve understanding of these interventions and their impact. By collating studies ystematically, this study will contribute to the evidence base for future programme and policy planning in situations where cultural barriers influence uptake of family planning services. In turn, this will help to provide women and their partners' greater reproductive freedom and improved reproductive health. Objective: The primary objective of this review is to review interventions that have been undertaken to address cultural barriers to modern contraceptive use and assess their effectiveness. Data sources and search method: Literature searches of over 40 databases, including PubMed, Embase and POPLINE will be conducted. There will be no language, date, geographical, gender or age restrictions implemented into the search strategy. Study selection: Due to the wide variety of study designs concerning public health it is necessary to include those with both quantitative and qualitative methods in this study.
Email: megan@ledgeronline.eu
Hours of work and retirement behavior
C. Sofia Machado , Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave and NIPE Miguel Portela - NIPE, Universidade do Minho and IZA
Using a novel dataset from the 2006 Portuguese Labor Force Survey this poster examines the impact of a voluntary reduction in hours of work, before retirement, on the moment of exit from the labor force. If, as often suggested, flexibility in hours of work is a useful measure to postpone retirement, then a reduction in working hours should be associated with retirement at later ages. Results prove otherwise suggesting that reducing hours of work before retirement is associated with early exits from the labor force. A reduction in hours of work seems to signal the worker's wish to retire sooner rather than to announce the desire of remaining in the labor market.
Email: cmachado@ipca.pt
Age and opportunities for promotion
C. Sofia Machado, Instituto Politécnico do Cávado e do Ave and NIPE Miguel Portela NIPE – Universidade do Minho and IZA
Using a panel of new firms and their employees, this pster studies the promotion opportunities for older workers within the same firm. Survival analysis suggests that younger employees experience shorter times to promotion than older workers and, therefore, the latter face a smaller likelihood of promotion. Although men are promoted more often than women, empirical results show that women have shorter survival times to promotion than men. Also, previous promotions are stronger determinants of subsequent ones and this finding provides support to the evidence on promotion "fast-tracks".
Email: cmachado@ipca.pt
Comparative study of childbearing intentions of Polish men and women living in Poland and in the UK: progression to the second child.
Joanna Marczak, London School of Economics
This presentation will be related to an ongoing PhD research, with the overall aim to explore the rationales behind, and justifications for, intentions about whether to have a second child among Polish people living in the UK and Poland as researching fertility intentions provides invaluable insights not only into factors that influence these intentions but also into obstacles to meet them. The intended and desired number of children remains at around 2 for Polish people; however, low levels of progression to the second and higher parities have contributed to low Total Fertility Rate in Poland (TFR 1.39 in 2009) while childlessness has remained low. Since 2004 there has been a considerable raise in actual numbers of births to Polish mothers in the UK; in 2008 they were 2.3 % of all childbirths up from 0.5 % in 2005. This has led to claims by British press and general public that Polish migrants have contributed to the baby boom in Britain, although there is little research on their fertility trends. This project, consequently, examines fertility intentions of men and women with similar socio-cultural background but who live in different countries to see whether diverse environments contribute to underlying factors that shape intentions for second and higher parities and whether these factors differ between genders to explore reasons for possible failures to realise intentions. The research is based on in-depth interviews (n=50) with men and women living in London and Krakow who already have one child.
Email: J.Marczak@lse.ac.uk
Topic modelling of public debates on fertility: an innovative approach to cultural analysis in demographic research
Emily Ann Marshall, Princeton University
Demographers have long been interested in cultural processes related to demographic trends. It is notoriously difficult, however to measure many of the cultural factors thought to matter. Where printed texts are widely circulated, popular publications may be studied as evidence of culturally salient understandings of fertility and family. Frame analysis may be used to identify different frames, or ways of understanding, used in discussions found in popular accounts. Scholars often identify frames by laborious hand-coding of texts, or non-replicable interpretative accounts. This poster uses topic modeling, a type of automated text analysis, to analyze public debates over fertility rates and demographic change in British mass-media publications from 1935 through 2000. Topic modeling inductively identifies a set of latent topics that characterize a given set of documents, representing each topic as a set of words found to co-occur across documents, and describing each document as a probabilistic combination of some subset of these topics (Blei and Lafferty 2007). When large amounts of digitized text are available, topic modeling is fast and simple, allowing comparisons over longer periods of time and analyses of a greater variety of sources than is possible using conventional methods of textual analysis. Another great strength is that the researcher need not impose categories of analysis: comparative analyses can thus capture shifting relationships among concepts represented in texts. This analysis compares the relative prevalence of frames and changes over time found in popular media (both papers of note and high-circulation tabloids) to discussions of demographic change in British academic publications.
Email: emarshal@princeton.edu
Health expectancy in Russian federation: gender differences and cross-country comparisons
Aleksander Ramonov, Moscow Higher School of Economics, Institute of Demography
Health expectancy indicators as measures combining data on population mortality and health were invented by Sullivan in 1971 and since then widely used in surveys worldwide and especially in European Union (EHEMU organization). Numerous works on population health have been published in different countries using health expectancy methodology (g.e. Determining Health Expectancies, J.-M. Robine et all.). Still in the Russian federation there is much less literature on the topic whereas usage of such measures is topical as they indicate not only the average amount of years lived in total population and its subgroups but also their quality which is dependent on health states. Among works on Russian population health using health expectancy methodology should be mentioned: Bobak M., Kristensen M. Marmot M., Life span and disability: a cross sectional comparison of Russian and Swedish community based data. BMJ, doi:10.1136 Andreev E.M., McKee M., & Shkolnikov V.M. Health expectancy in the Russian Federation: a new perspective on the health divide in Europe. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2003;81:778-788. These works showed that health situation in Russia is worse than in Western and Eastern European countries not only due to high mortality, but also due to worse health especially among elderly women. Novelty of this article is that different data sets (RLMS and GGS, 2004) and sets of variables are be used for calculating health expectancies for Russian Federation/ Moreover, in depth analysis of gender differences in health expectancies is provided using Andreev's health expectancy decomposition method.
Email: ramonov@gmail.com
British attitudes to population
Simon Ross, Population Matters
An online survey of UK adults conducted in May 2011 explored the public understanding of, and attitudes to, both global and UK population issues. The survey looked at the extent to which people understood population size and trends and whether they linked population trends to a range of significant social and environmental concerns. Preferences for future population size and trends were explored. It found that, while detailed knowledge was limited, there were clear views and preferences and an identification of linkages.
The survey also explored attitudes to a number of potential behavioural and policy responses to population trends. While general agreement was found on some questions, significant differences were found on others, particularly between more and less densely populated areas of the UK and between different age cohorts. The results are particularly relevant in 2011, when the world population reaches the milestone of seven billion and the UK population is estimated to be growing by the largest annual number for almost fifty years.
Email: simon.ross@populationmatters.org
Social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assaults, England and Wales, 2001-03.
Veronique Siegler, Office for National Statistics; Alaa Al-Hamad, Office for National Statistics; David Blane, Imperial College
Accidents and assaults are major causes of avoidable mortality in children. This study is an analysis of social inequalities in fatal childhood accidents and assault at the start of the 21st century. Age-specific mortality rates of children for selected causes of accidents and assault are presented, using the NS-SEC (National Statistics Socio-economic Classification). In oder to classify children by NS-SEC, the most advantaged class of the parents is used. The study is restricted to the period 2001-03 as a consequence of constraints on the availability of population data suitably classified by NS-SEC. The mortality rates from accidents and assault are also calculated for children whose parents could not be classified by occupation. The poster presents the causes and age groups for which the inequalities in mortality between the least and the most advantaged children are the widest.Published as a paper in HSQ 48, Winter 2010, available at:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hsq/downloads/hsq48.pdf .
Email: veronique.siegler@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Mortality rates and excess mortality among diabetics in the United States
David W. Smith, Consultant; Stephanie L. McFall, University of Essex; Benjamin S. Bradshaw, University of Texas
We estimate mortality probabilities, excess deaths, and excess years of potential life lost among diabetics and all others using the National Health Interview Survey for 1997-2001 with followup for deaths through 2006. All deaths within five years of interview were used to estimate survival and death probabilities by age groups. These were used to compute annual death probabilities, odds ratios, excess deaths, and excess years of productive life lost (YPLL). Excess deaths and YPLL among diabetics were separated by diabetes as a cause of death. The annual death probabilities (per thousand) of diabetics were: females, 35.7 (se: 0.8), males, 37.5 (se: 1.1), and combined, 34.1 (se: 1.0), increasing by age. The age-specific odds ratios of male to female diabetics were between 0.46 and 1.46; for non-diabetics they were between 1.49 and 1.72. There were 208 thousand annual excess deaths among diabetics or 93% more than expected: 94 thousand among males (77% more than expected) and 114 thousand among females (113% more than expected). 80% of the excess deaths were caused by diabetes (any mention). There were 1,122 thousand excess YPLL among diabetics, annually (235% more than expected): 588 thousand among males (185% more than expected) and 533 thousand among females (314% more than expected). 55% of the excess was caused by diabetes (any mention), 53% among men and 57% among women. The number of deaths among diabetics was nearly double the number expected, most with diabetes as a cause. The presence of diabetes reduced the female advantage in death rates.
Email: davidwsmithphd@gmail.com
Religiosity and the rise of right wing politics in Finland. A municipality level study. Emma Terama, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) and Environment Institute, University College London
Laestadianism, a conservative Lutheran revival movement, has an estimated 100.000 followers in Finland and constitutes a significant religious minority. Laestadians have characteristics differing from the followers of the mainstream state church in religious activity, regional concentration, fertility and family planning. The recent (April 2011) parliamentary elections were widely publicized in international media for the rise of a party with right wing immigration policies. They allegedly acquired a high percentage of voters from the commonly centre-aligning regions in Finland, which also happen to be home to the most religious municipalities, including Laestadians. As suggested in Kaufmann, E. 2010 (Shall the religious inherit the earth?), religious and political conservatism often go hand in hand. To what extent this applies in Finland, and whether the pro-natalist Laestadians and the True Finns nationalist party share any form of conservatism is investigated through regional and/or municipal demographic mapping together with simple regression. This study highlights the intrinsic value of a high fertility population for the local, often rural communities that would otherwise be net migration losers. Correlations between such variables as religious density and total fertility rate, unemployment and education are investigated in Laestadian rich regions of the country. The recent election results are added to investigate the regional to municipal correlations of religiousness and right wing constituency. The regional variation of religiousness, and the subsequent effect on population structure and socio-political factors are discussed.
Email: emma@terama.fi
Phenomenological Exploration of the Psychological Significance of the "Lived Body" in Late Adulthood
Matlyn Thomas, University of Glasgow
The body in Developmental Psychology is either reduced to its materialism [i.e., physiological changes are considered as merely symptomatic of transition (Overton, 2008)] or is abstracted as a construct [(e.g., body image, largely understood as perceived appearance (Öberg & Tornstam, 1999)] whereby, the Cartesian mind-body dualism problematically persists. And, as the United Kingdom emerges as an ageing nation (Office for National Statistics, 2010), issues of late adulthood necessitate empirically acknowledging the body as a physiological-psychological continuum because interventions (e.g., medication; assistive technology) involve one's rethinking of and negotiation with the body. This Interpretative Phenomenological study analyses ten Glaswegian interviewees' (65-90 years) individual articulation of the daily life-world shaped by the ageing body (perceived onset of ageing, familial acceptance, identity dynamics and coping). Data collection is now completed, and certain emergent themes (analysis in process) have been found to root the lived body as a topical subject within Developmental Psychology: - Bodily changes prompting goal setting - Body as a social text - Extension of self in others' bodily tasks (e.g., dance; death) and one's assistive aids (e.g., wheely-walker) - Self-talk, humour and objectification alleviating physical limitations References Öberg, P. & Tornstam, L. (1999). Body Images among Men and Women of Different Ages. Ageing and Society, 19, 629 – 644. Office for National Statistics (2010). Fastest Increase in the 'Oldest Old'. Retrieved from <http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=949> Overton, W. (2008). Embodiment from a Relational Perspective. In W. Overton, U. Müller & J. Newman (Eds.), Developmental Perspectives on Embodiment and Consciousness (pp. 1 – 18). Mahwah: Lawrence-Erlbaum.
Email: marlyn.thomas@gmail.com
Area migration typologies to assess variation in death rates between deprived neighbourhoods in Britain
Helena Tunstall, Univeristy of York; Kate Picket, University of York; Danny Dorling, University of Sheffield; Ruth Lupton, London School of Economics
This study explores the value of typologies of area migration characteristics to the understanding of variation in death rates between deprived areas of Britain. While research has consistently found death rates to be higher in more deprived areas in Britain in comparison to less deprived places it has also indicated that there is greater unexplained variation in death rates between deprived areas. Some studies have suggested that patterns of migration have a particularly large impact on rates of death in deprived areas. Better descriptions of the characteristics of migration in deprived areas may therefore support understanding of their death rates. This study uses complex area migration typologies based on 2001 census data to categorise migration in deprived neighbourhoods of Britain. These typologies focus on three aspects of neighbourhood migration: population turnover, change and connection. The definition of population turnover is based upon the proportion of the population that moved in and out of the deprived areas in the year before the census. Population change describes how these moves altered the total population and socio-demographic characteristics of the population resident in the deprived areas. Lastly, population connection describes how movements link areas, categorising the deprived neighbourhoods based upon the degree of deprivation in the areas mobile people have moved to and from. Preliminary analysis outlines how death rates vary between these migration typologies in deprived neighbourhoods in Britain.
Email: helena.tunstall@york.ac.uk
Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS)
Lee Williamson, Longitudinal Studies Centre – Scotland (LSCS), University of St Andrews
The Longitudinal Studies Centre – Scotland (LSCS) was established in 2001 and hosts the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS). This study links together routinely collected administrative data for a 5.3% representative sample of the Scottish population (about 270,000 people). It currently includes a wealth of information from the 1991 and 2001 censuses, vital events registrations (births, deaths and marriages), and can be linked to cancer registry and hospital admission data.
The size and scope of the SLS make it an unparalleled resource for analysing a range of socio-economic, demographic and health questions. Additionally, the longitudinal nature of the SLS is particularly valuable, allowing an exploration of causality in a way that cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time does not. In this way, the SLS can provide insights into the health and social status of the Scottish population and, crucially, how it changes over time.
The poster will introduce the SLS and the datasets, the application process for researchers interested in using the SLS and outline research examples and SLS future developments.
Email: lscs@st-andrews.ac.uk
Bayesian modelling of international migration with Labour Force Survey data
Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Southampton
Information obtained from Labour Force Surveys (LFS) is developed in this study. The motivation for using LFS data is the general poor quality or absence of data provided by the national statistical institutes. A simple Bayesian model of flows between two countries is considered, assuming that migration can be measured in the LFS by both sending and receiving countries. The undercount in a particular destination-specific emigration flow is estimated by using the LFS sample of the corresponding receiving country. The model developed in this paper is applied to estimate recent migration flows between Poland and the United Kingdom.
Email: A.Wisniowski@soton.ac.uk