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BSPS Annual Conference 2008: Migration - Transnational & Subnational - Strand - Abstracts

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Migration mapping at the BSPS Conference.

Special session - Gemma Catney and Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester

Subnational migration and life stage: explaining the movement of young adults for ethnic groups in Britain

Nissa Finney
University of Manchester

This paper links a life-course perspective on migration with recent debates about population change of ethnic groups in Britain. The significance of life-stage for mobility is well documented (Champion et al 2007, Mortimer and Shanahan 2003). In particular, the migration of young adults differs both in magnitude and character from migration at other ages. The paper asks whether there are differences in the types of places that young adults of different ethnicities are moving to and from. In doing so it investigates if there is evidence of racially motivated residential migration for young adults. Although recent findings have questioned patterns of 'white flight' and minority 'self segregation' (Simpson and Finney 2008, Stillwell and Hussain 2008), the concepts remain politically lucid (Phillips 2005, 2008).

The paper hypothesises that migration patterns are explained by lifestyle and socio-economic factors, rather than racial ones. It addresses methodological and conceptual challenges of measuring migration for small areas, ethnic groups and age including disentangling the effects of student migration. Small areas are characterised in various ways: deprivation, urban-ness, ethnic composition and student composition. The paper uses Census 2001 commissioned tables and estimates of net migration (for single year of age) over the decade 1991-2001 for wards and districts of Britain. It concludes that the migration of young adults is distinct from that of other ages for all ethnic groups, though interesting differences between ethnic groups are also found. These differences, however, do not constitute ethnic retreat and separation. To the contrary, migration patterns indicate mixing and common migration motivations.

Acknowledgement: This work is funded by the ESRC through the UPTAP programme.

Champion, T., Coombes, M., Raybould, R. and Wymer, C. (2007) Migration and Socio-economic change Bristol: Policy Press/Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Mortimer, J.T. & Shanahan, M. J. (eds) (2003): The Handbook of the Life Course.
Phillips T. (2005) After 7/7: Sleepwalking to segregation, speech to the Manchester Council for Community Relations, 22nd September.
Phillips, T. The Today Programme, BBC Radio 4, January 2008.
Simpson, L. and Finney, N. (2008, forthcoming) 'Spatial patterns of internal migration: evidence for ethnic groups in Britain' Population, Space and Place
Stillwell, J. and Hussain, S. (2008) 'Ethnic group migration within Britain during 2000-01: a district level analysis' University of Leeds Draft Working Paper

Email: nissa.finney@manchester.ac.uk 

The evolution of economic activity-based migration within the UK, 1991-2007

Corrado Giuletti, James Raymer, Peter W. F. Smith
University of Southampton

This paper studies the evolution of interregional migration of several economic activity groups (eg employed, unemployed, economically inactive, and students) in the UK from 1991-2007 by combining data from the 1991 and 2001 Censuses and the National Health Service (NHS) Register. The NHS data are available annually but do not include such details as economic activity. This variable can be obtained from the decennial censuses. We develop a log-linear model for combining these two data sources with the final estimates representing migration flows cross-classified by origin, destination, age, sex, and economic activity over time. These estimates represent a synthetic and consistent data base that can be used, for example, by local and central government to strengthen their planning policies directed at providing social services or at monitoring the levels of particular migration groups.

Email: cg204@soton.ac.uk

Coexistence in Italy: the views of immigrant journalists on relations between immigrants and Italian nationals

Arianna Caporali
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Since the 1970s, Italy has become home to a rising number of foreign immigrants. It is desirable to gain a better understanding of immigrants' opinions on living alongside native Italians so that policies can be formulated to foster positive coexistence. The Italian mainstream press has been previously used as source of information about Italians' attitudes towards immigrants. However press targeting foreign ethnic minorities has so far had limited use as a source of information about immigrants' opinions on Italians and the Italian society. Our study analyses the transcripts of 31 semi-structured interviews with immigrant journalists of the newspapers targeted to immigrants spread nationwide. Using these journalists opinions, we explore how it might be feasible to foster positive coexistence between immigrants and Italians. We explain what we mean by 'coexistence', and we discuss the respondents' views on the following issues:

  • immigrants' legal and actual access to rights and opportunities;
  • interpersonal relationships between immigrants and other immigrants, and interpersonal relationships between immigrants and Italians; and
  • interactions between immigration and the Italian social system as a whole.

We capture two perspectives: a) the interviewees' perceptions of coexistence problems, and b) the interviewees' views on how the coexistence might be improved.
The analysis shows that most immigrants maintain ties with their home countries and therefore providing easier access to Italian citizenship would not be a key solution for encouraging positive coexistence. Rather, our informants would like to enhance both immigrants' and natives' mutual 'knowledge and respect' by means of education and media policies.

Email: caporali@demogr.mpg.de

Migration, settlement and identity among English graduates in Scotland

paper - full text

Ross Bond1, Katharine Charsley2, Sue Grundy1
1University of Edinburgh, 2University of Oxford

This paper is concerned with migration across national borders but within state boundaries; specifically, movement between England and Scotland. It focuses on an under-researched area - the medium-term migration behaviour and motivations of graduates - within a demographic and political context where there is a premium on the attraction of highly qualified migrants. It examines the potential influence of national identities upon migration and long-term settlement among this group. The status of 'English' graduate migrants in Scotland is highlighted. Identification and affinity with Scotland is widespread, and can be developed through a number of routes, thus indicating a positive potential for turning 'migrants' into 'settlers' in order to meet demographic and political objectives. However, there are also significant barriers to belonging which relate to the national identities of migrants. This shows that incongruity between formal citizenship and belonging may be a significant feature not only for those who migrate between states, but also for migrants who cross national borders within the same state, and this in turn may influence their future migration decisions.

Email: r.j.bond@ed.ac.uk 

Selective migration and neighbourhood change: an exploratory analysis of data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study

Nick Bailey, Ade Kearns and Mark Livingston
University of Glasgow' Department of Urban Studies

The paper examines the role of selective migration in driving neighbourhood change, focussing in particular on the extent to which migration acts to reinforce or deepen patterns of spatial segregation. This is an area of great policy relevance given concerns about the impacts that concentrations of deprivation have on individual welfare. Governments in the UK and elsewhere have long sought to intervene in deprived neighbourhoods to try to manage the consequences of segregation, yet there is a concern that these efforts may be undermined by selective migration ("those who get on, get out"). Recent analyses of 2001 Census migration data suggest these concerns may have been overstated (Bailey and Livingston, 2008). This paper extends that work in a number of ways: by exploring migration and neighbourhood change on a wider range of dimensions related to socio-economic status; by taking a longer-term perspective; and by examining in situ change (change for non-migrants) alongside selective migration. The paper takes advantage of the new data available through the Scottish Longitudinal Study. Analyses are carried out at the level of the CATTs (Continuous Areas Through Time). Hypotheses include the following: that spatial segregation rises over the period 1991-2001 on each of dimensions examined; that selective migration acts to reinforce segregation on each of the dimensions; and that selective migration is the dominant process driving area change (i.e. that any improvements that deprived areas see through in situ change are more than offset by net migration effects on average).

Email: n.bailey@socsci.gla.ac.uk

Migrant Workers in Fife- Survey 2007

Andrew Ballingall
Fife Council

This study was commissioned by a multi-agency working group of key public sector agencies in Fife. It focuses on quantifying social and demographic characteristics, rather than actual numbers of migrant workers, and tries to identify the key issues facing these people, for example, concerning employment, accommodation, health, qualifications, language, etc. It also tries to gain an insight into reasons why these people come to live and work in Fife.

The main target group for this study was people living or working in Fife, that had come from the eight countries that joined the European Union in 2004 (A8 Countries), although the study did include a few people from other countries.

The purpose of the study was to gather information about migrant workers that would help agencies to gain a better understanding of these people's needs and aspirations, and to consider the policy implications for service planning and delivery.

The study was carried out by the Fife Polish Association, and involved face-to-face interviews with 904 migrant workers across Fife.

Email: andrew.ballingall@fife.gov.uk

The impact of new migration to the English Midlands

D.W. Owen1, A.E. Green1, P.S. Jones2
1University of Warwick, 2Sheffield Hallam University

Since the mid-1990s, the UK has experienced consistently high levels of net international migration, resulting in this being one of the most controversial political issues. The high levels of asylum migration in the late 1990s was followed by substantial economic migration and the "largest wave of overseas migration" following the expansion of the European Union into eastern and central Europe in 2004.

In this wave of migration, not only did migrants have unfamiliar national origins, areas of the country which were unfamiliar with international immigration received relatively large numbers of new migrants. Official statistics provided little information on the characteristics of these migrants, which has mainly been provided through administrative data sources. This paper presents findings from two research projects which combine information from such sources with data from questionnaire surveys of migrants and employers to present a picture of the nature of new migration into the East and West Midlands. The paper presents a profile of new migrants, the type of work they do and their experience of living in the UK, and attempts to identify the impact of recent migration on the labour market.

Email: d.w.owen@warwick.ac.uk

Progress update on recommendations of the Inter-departmental Taskforce on International Migration Statistics

Richard Pereira
Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography

Migration is the most difficult aspect of population change to estimate in the UK. In 2006 the Interdepartmental Task Force on Migration Statistics made fifteen recommendations for improvements to the way in which migration and migrant populations are estimated and reported on. ONS Centre for Demography is taking forward these recommendations as part of the Improving Migration and Population Statistics work programme. This paper provides an update on the progress of the five work streams that were set up to deliver this work.

Email: richard.pereira@ons.gsi.gov.uk

International Immigration Estimates: Comparing ONS estimates to counts from administrative sources

Jonathan Smith & Sarah Healey
Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography

Discrepancies between ONS estimates of long-term migration (moves made for longer than 12 months) and counts of international migrants from administrative sources are known to relate to definitional differences in the populations covered. Most notably counts from administrative sources such as patient registers and national insurance number allocations will include some moves made for less than 12 months. In response to this in October 2007 ONS published a first set of short-term migration estimates allowing more direct comparison to be made with administrative sources. This paper explores how combined estimates of long and short-term migration estimates compare to counts of international migrants from (i) patient registers, (ii) national insurance number allocations, and (iii) the Worker Registration Scheme data. There follows a discussion on the possible causes of remaining discrepancies and a resulting series of recommendations.

Email: jonathan.smith@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Developments in Entry and Exit Data Sources

Nigel Swier
Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography

In 2006, the Migration Task Force (MTF) made a number of recommendations for improving migration statistics. One of these was to develop a port survey designed to capture a substantially increased sample of migrants and provide reliable estimates at regional and local levels. Some improvements to the International Passenger Survey (IPS) were implemented for 2008. However, more radical changes to the sample design are planned for 2009, which is expected to deliver a larger migrant sample. The MTF also recommended making use of emerging Home Office sources of entry and exit data prior to the planned completion of the e-Borders roll-out in 2014. Plans to accelerate the e-Borders roll-out
have led to a more concerted effort to clarify how these data could be used to improve migration statistics. This paper outlines the major developments within ONS for improving entry and exit data sources and will provide an update on progress.

Email: nigel.swier@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Is future net immigration inevitable? Lifetime cohort migration evidence from England and Wales

Danny Dorling
University of Sheffield

I am afraid that the migrants will not come to England and Wales in the numbers we expect. The reason that I am afraid is that, with a colleague, I have looked at the numbers who have come and gone over the last century in a way that people have not looked before (Dorling and Rigby), 2007. We have looked at how people come and go to England and Wales over the course of their lifetimes rather than the numbers arriving and leaving in a single year. This paints a very much clearer picture of the history of migration than is usually seen. It suggests that the link between trends in fertility and migration is very much stronger than has been supposed before, but this new look at the demography of England and Wales also hints at other influences. Among these the paper presents evidence which suggests that although events abroad matter for determining from where and exactly when people come and to where and exactly when they left, events abroad do not greatly influence the total numbers that come to England and Wales and leave these countries. It has been events and social prospects within these countries which appear over the long term to be of most importance. We are assuming in our official predictions that these countries will be remarkably attractive places to live in - year after year for almost a century to come - in a way they have only once and briefly been before.

Reference: Dorling, D. and Rigby, J. E. (2007) Net Cohort Migration in England and Wales: How Past Birth Trends May Influence Net Migration, Population Review, 46, 2, 51-62 http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/population_review/v046/46.2dorling.pdf 

Email: danny.dorling@sheffield.ac.uk

Use of administrative data to improve estimation of student migration

Cal Ghee, Jonathan Smith
Office for National Statistics Centre for Demography

Study represents one of the most common reasons for people to migrate, both into and around the UK. In the academic year 2003-04 there were more than 2.2 million students at higher education institutes, 300 thousand of whom were from outside the UK. Though the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) have been able to provide data on students in higher education for a number of years, from the academic year 2007/8 they will for the first time be collecting information on students' term-time addresses. Using this new data in combination with the students' home addresses has the potential to improve ONS estimates of both internal and international migration. This paper provides an overview of how ONS intend to investigate methods for using this new data source and a timetable for when future improvements might be made as a result.

Email@ cal.ghee@ons.gsi.gov.uk

The National Pupil Database - A new method of measuring residential movement

Naomi Marquis
University of Manchester, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census & Survey Research

As part of the Government's 'Sustainable Communities' plan, the Housing Market Renewal (HMR) Pathfinder Programme was established in 2002 in response to concerns about dysfunctional housing markets in parts of northern England and the Midlands. One such Pathfinder covers the boroughs of Oldham and Rochdale, located to the North East of Manchester. The boroughs are two of the most deprived in the country, and also experience marked problems of segregation related to income and ethnicity.

In order to understand the problems experienced by residents, the Oldham-Rochdale Pathfinder needs to understand the dynamics of local housing markets. Previously, Council Tax data has been relied on to study movement, but this lacks economic and ethnic detail. There is a clear need for a more informed measure that takes into account these dimensions.

I will present on the potential of a new data source - the National Pupil Database (NPD) - to measure family migration, as part of a wider project working with the Oldham-Rochdale Pathfinder.

The NPD is updated yearly, and records details of all state-school registered children in England and Wales. While the NPD is limited in its usefulness by only capturing the movement of families with school-aged children, its potential comes from the fact that it contains both ethnicity and household income indicators. The NPD then provides a new way of monitoring residential movement, with the benefit of including indicators that are lacking in other large-scale data sources.

This presentation will explore internal data quality within the NPD between 2002 and 2007, and compare rate of residential movement picked up in the data to those found in the 2001 National Census in order to demonstrate the potential that the NPD has for the purpose of investigating movement.

Email: naomi.marquis@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk

Towards an area classification for migration analysis and inter-censal monitoring

Adam Dennett, John Stillwell,
University of Leeds

An area classification developed by Vickers et al. (2003) for local authority districts in the UK based on a range of socio-demographic variables has been used as a framework for the analysis of internal migration patterns (Dennett and Stillwell, 2008). The classification excludes any migration variables and the results of the analysis demonstrate how net migration patterns for different types of district vary within categories of the classification.

This paper explores explore the development of classification system for districts based entirely on migration characteristics from the 2001 Census and argues that such a system might be used as a tool for monitoring inter-censal migration at district scale based on data from other sources (such as NHS patient registrations) as well as a means of identifying those variables associated with migration which are most discriminatory and vary most across space and consequently could be incorporated into future projection models.

The proposed migration classification system (MCS) would utilise key aggregate variables such as in-migration, out-migration and within-area migration but also a suite of additional migration variables including international migration characteristics and migration distance characteristics, as well as variables identifying the composition of migration flows in terms of demographic components such as age, sex, ethnicity, movement type (individual, group, household) and socio-economic components such as occupation, tenure and health.

The paper will outline progress to date in the development of a migration classification, focusing on particular conceptual and methodological issues and problems encountered and presenting the results thus far.

Email: a.r.dennett@leeds.ac.uk

Review of internal migration methods using health registrations

Cecilia Macintyre, Nick Wright
General Register Office for Scotland

The current approach to measuring migration flows in Scotland between Censuses uses information on migration flows at health board level, supplied through the National Health Service Central Register. Estimates for local authority areas, and lower levels, are provided by combining this information with one years worth of change of address data supplied by the Community Health Index.

These data sources are closely linked, as they are generated through the same process of registering with a general practitioner, although they measure different things. NHSCR counts all registrations throughout the year resulting in a change of health board area, whereas the Community Health Index looks at a change of address between two points one year apart.

The first part of this paper compares the characteristics of the two data sources, looking separately at flows in and out of Scotland, and within Scotland. The implications of the findings will be discussed

As part of a review of the NHSCR system in Scotland, the General Register Office for Scotland will be provided with a regular anonymised update of the NHSCR database. This will contain complete histories of individual's registrations with the health service, so will be invaluable in gaining more understanding of the process of movements. In future, this data source will include postcode of residence, and therefore it will be used to replace the current system described above. The presentation will outline the initial research questions which will be addressed using this new data source in order to improve migration estimates.

Email: cecilia.macintyre@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Determinants of return migration: The effects of integration and transnational ties on intentions and plans to return

Tineke Fokkema1, Hein de Haas2
1Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), 2International Migration Institute, University of Oxford

While return migration is receiving increasing scholarly attention, there is still a lack of knowledge about the factors which actually determine migrants' decision to settle or to return. It is commonly assumed that integration in receiving countries decreases the likelihood to return and that maintaining strong social and economic ties with sending countries increases the likelihood of return. However, the recent literature challenges these assumptions by showing that integration and transnationalism are not necessarily negatively correlated. It is unclear how these variables and their interaction affects return migration. On the basis of a unique dataset, this study aims to increase systematic insight in the micro-level determinants of return migration among four African migrant groups in Spain and Italy. Pooled and immigrant group-specific multinomial analysis is employed to simultaneously test hypotheses on the effects of socio-cultural and economic integration in receiving countries and socio-economic ties with origin countries on return migration. A second theoretical and methodological innovation of this study is that is distinguishes between intentions and actual plans to return.

Email: hein.dehaas@qeh.ox.ac.uk

Migration and the dynamics of sub-national population change in Cuba

Susan Ramsay
University of Manchester, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census & Survey Research

Cuba has one of the most rapidly ageing populations in Latin America and the Caribbean. The increasing proportion of older people in a population can be seen as a positive consequence of good public health policies and social development. However ageing also poses new challenges for society, necessitating policies that can cater effectively to the particular needs and abilities of the elderly population. Such responses require intelligent decisions about the appropriate distribution of resources at both individual and sub-national levels. The latter dimension is aided by a clear appreciation of the demographic dynamics that give rise to variations in the speed and extent of ageing in different areas.

Research in Cuba and other Latin American countries has raised questions about the potential effects of migration on the character of sub-national population ageing. However, there is little work that describes the dynamic effects of migration on the population age and sex structure in any depth. In contrast to these studies, this paper uses multiregional demographic techniques to incorporate internal and international migration flow data into an analysis of provincial population change in Cuba.

The analysis is based on administrative data extracted from the Cuban national statistical database and collected during fieldwork in 2007. It begins by describing the age and spatial structure of inter-provincial and international migration flows, as well as the nature of population ageing at the provincial level. The paper then uses multiregional life-table and stable population techniques in order to explore the long-run structural impact of migration flows between provinces. In particular, the analysis draws attention to the differential effect of age/sex-specific patterns of migration from eastern to western provinces.

Email: susan.ramsay@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk

Right to Buy... time to move?

Lee Williamson, Maarten van Ham, Paul Boyle, Peteke Feijten and Joe Doherty
University of St. Andrews

The consequences of the Right to Buy legislation, introduced in the early 1980s, have been studied intensively. One stated aim of the Right to Buy was that it was expected that freeing up the housing market, by removing the debilitating effect of public housing, would help to reduce constraints on inter-regional mobility. This would give people more freedom to move between regions for family, environmental and, especially, labour market reasons. Despite this clearly stated goal of the Right to Buy policy, there has been no research on whether council tenants became more mobile over long distances after buying their house.

This research is the first study to examine rigorously whether the Right to Buy legislation did indeed 'free-up' people to move inter-regionally. Initial results from studying the effect of the Right to Buy on mobility in the last 25 years using complex longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) will be presented.

Email: lepw@st-andrews.ac.uk

Estimating the socio-demographic composition of GP patients

Paul Williamson
University of Liverpool

It is know that the socio-demographic mix of patients on GP lists varies significantly between GPs, leading to marked disparities in GP workloads. Conventional approaches to estimating the socio-demographic composition of GP have involved ecological analysis based on patient postcodes, initially via the Jarman Index and more latterly through use of Indices of Deprivation and Geodemographic Classifications. This paper presents an approach which tackles the same problem through the reweighting of survey microdata to fit known area-level distributions of census respondents and GP patients. The extent to which this new approach allows a better teasing out of socioeconomically differentiated patient flows is considered, as is the use of the estimates for exploring the known mismatch between patient list and official population mid-year estimate totals.

Email: p.williamson@liv.ac.uk