England & Wales Mid-Year Population Estimates
Ruth Fulton
Office for National Statistics
This poster contains a simple flowchart illustrating how the England & Wales Population estimates are calculated. Explanatory boxes provide further detail, summarising the individual components that contribute to the calculation of the national and sub-national estimates: home armed forces, foreign armed forces and their dependants, prisoners, schools, births, deaths, internal migration and total international migration. These explanations include information about where the data are collected from and how the methodology is applied.
Email: ruth.fulton@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Improving access to Vital Statistics
Paul Norman, Sam Smith and Jo Wathan
Economic and Social Data Service (ESDS) Government, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census & Survey Research (CCSR), University of Manchester
Although vital statistics data on births and deaths for areas within England and Wales have been available in computer files since the 1980s, this valuable and high quality data source has been underutilised. This lack of use is the result of low levels of user awareness, data format issues and lack of data consistency over time. To enable widespread use of these data ESDS have been undertaking work to improve the usability and consistency of the vital statistics series. This work has three aspects:
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A set of web pages which describe data availability and link to UK Data Archive and ONS data
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Improving the usability and consistency of previously released vital statistics data by reformatting these data to give a consistent, accessible data format across 20 years
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Making data available to users through an easy to use online GIS tool
The ESDS Government Vital Statistics web pages can be found at http://www.esds.ac.uk/government/vitals/ the page includes details of the data series which are available. Tables VS1 and VS2 provide a range of fertility measures including counts of live and still births by sex within and outside marriage and standard fertility measures such as the GFR and TFR. Tables VS3 and 4 focus on mortality including cause of death by age.
This poster will describe work being undertaken to improve use of these resources and will demonstrate the functionality of the GIS interface.
Emails: paul.norman@manchester.ac.uk sam.smith@manchester.ac.uk jo.wathan@manchester.ac.uk
Measuring population similarities: an area deprivation example
Stuart Booker
Fife Council
Rankings can be used to compare the social and economic characteristics of populations living in different geographical areas. This approach lies at the heart of indices like the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), which measures deprivation at the datazone (i.e. small area) level across Scotland.
Attention is often focussed on the "top of the table", but it is sometimes more useful to consider the distribution revealed by the table as a whole. This poster demonstrates one approach to studying this problem, based on standard mathematical measures applied to the deciles of the ranking. It can be used to compare the rankings of datazones in two different local authorities, or to compare the ranking of datazones in each local authority with the national average.
Results are presented comparing Scotland's 32 local authorities with the Scottish national average, as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) and each of the six individual domains of the SIMD: income deprivation, employment deprivation, education deprivation, health deprivation, housing deprivation, and access to services deprivation.
It will be shown how this approach can be used: (i) to establish population-based comparator classes for some local authorities; and (ii) to find the most "typical" local authority population, as measured by a particular characteristic of interest.
E-mail: stuart.booker@fife.gov.uk
Early Motherhood and Neighbourhood Characteristics
Dylan Kneale
Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, University of London.
Contemporary UK fertility patterns are characterised by a comparatively older age at first motherhood and a lower overall fertility rate than in previous eras. However, this is not a universal trend, with certain concentrations of social groups and geographies experiencing higher fertility rates and higher rates of early motherhood than others. This raises the issue, among others, of how early motherhood should be defined - either as a collective definition or contextually through temporal, neighbourhood or social conventions. There exists a considerable body of work that examines the individual level predictors of early motherhood, as well as independently, a considerable body that examines neighbourhood level predictors of early motherhood on an ecological level. However, very few investigations have assessed the effect of neighbourhood on the individual level. In addition, there is little justification for the definition of early motherhood used in the literature, with digit preference alone a possible reason for the prevalence of 'teenage motherhood'. The aim of this research is threefold. Firstly, the research will aim to investigate the effect of neighbourhood on individual level demography, using universal definitions. Secondly, the definitions of early motherhood, and in particular contextual definitions of early motherhood, will be investigated. Thirdly, this work will integrate both ideas to examine how neighbourhood factors may influence decisions on childbearing, and how these operate depending on the type of neighbourhood. This poster will introduce the preliminary conceptual framework of this work as part of a wider research project, as well as some initial empirical findings using data from the National Child Development Study (1958).
Email: dkneale@ioe.ac.uk
Depression, Disability and socio-economic position among older adults 'left behind' by out-migration: A multilevel study in Kanchanaburi Province, Thailand
Melanie Abas
Institute of Psychiatry, Kings College London
Background:
There is a rise in demographic ageing in rural areas in many developing countries. The high level of rural to urban migration of young adults may have negative impacts for older adults left behind in the provinces.
Methods:
Setting
The Kanchanaburi Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) surveys population change in 100 neighbourhoods and 12,500 households in Kanchanaburi province, Western Thailand.
Hypothesis
There is an increased risk of depression and disability among older adults who were exposed to out-migration of one or more co-resident children between 2000 and 2005, compared to those co-residing with at least one child and not exposed to out-migration.
Design
A historical cohort study, making use of the longitudinal DSS data to define those exposed and unexposed to out-migration.
Interim results:
Since 2000, 12% of households had at least one member out-migrate every year and 7% had at least one in-migration. Descriptive analysis of the longitudinal dataset and qualitative work show that most OAs live with a child co-resident or close by. They get support from elderly neighbours and siblings. They do not expect remittances from out-migrant children and commonly continue to support children by working into very old age as labourers/agriculturalists.
Interim conclusion and ongoing work:
Despite the high level of youth out-migration from this Thai province, many families arrange at least one child to live close to elderly parents. It is not known how OAs are coping with greater exposure to out-migration. This study will enable an adequate sample of OA exposed to out-migration to look at risk of depression and disability and at change in socio-economic position.
Email: melanie.abas@dsl.pipex.com