Longitudinal and cross-sectional perspectives on fertility in selected Scottish settings in the late nineteenth century.
Eilidh Garrett
University of Cambridge
Understanding of the fertility transition in late nineteenth century Britain has largely relied on the use of published reports and census enumerators' books to consider the differentials in behaviour among various socio-economic groups within the population. Neither of these sources is ideal. The published reports do not allow for direct comparison between individual circumstances and fertility behaviour and the census enumerators' books contain no information on children who did not survive to be enumerated, nor do they indicate where children have not been recorded because they have left home, and they give little clue as to how long a couple have been married and whether that marriage was a first for both partners.
For such details researchers require longitudinal data, where demographic events have been linked to each other and to the individual-level information recorded in the census. While parish registers provide data on individual demographic events for earlier centuries, restrictions on access to post-1837 civil registers have meant that very few studies have been able to create longitudinal data for late nineteenth century Britain by linking a couple's marriage to the births, and possible deaths, of their children. Permission from the General Register Office, Scotland has meant that the present paper can draw on longitudinal data constructed from the civil registers of four Scottish communities: Skye, Kilmarnock, Rothiemay and Torthorwald for the period 1861-1901. The longitudinal data has then been tied to the 5 censuses spanning the same four decades.
It is thus now possible to compare the picture of fertility behaviour which can be gleaned from the cross-sectional view provided by the censuses, with the much richer perspective provided by the longitudinal family-building histories. The paper will examine the questions of whether spatial or occupational migration impose selection effects on the groups 'captured' in fertility schedules derived from the census material, and will consider how these effects differ across the various economic settings represented by the study communities.
Email: eilidh.garrett@btinternet.com
'The years are too short, the days are too long': the variable reporting of ages in nineteenth-century Scotland.
Alice Reid
University of Cambridge
It is well known that reporting of ages is subject to error, particularly in circumstances where literacy levels are not high. Common problems include considerable age-misstatement in the form of digit preference and systematic over- or under-representation of ages in particular age- and gender-groups. Ongoing surveys are able to use corrective devices such as dating calendars to help respondents identify years in which events occurred, but this is obviously not available for historical studies, where overall patterns of actual age distributions can be compared to expected distributions, but which have little recourse for checking or confirming reported ages or dates.
This paper utilises linked census returns and civil registrations of births, marriages and deaths to compare patterns of age-misstatement in individuals and groups over a life-course perspective for four communities in late nineteenth century Scotland: the Island of Skye, the town of Kilmarnock and the rural communities of Tothorwald and Rothiemay. The linked data allow actual dates of birth to be compared to dates implied by ages given in the census and in the registrations of death and marriage. This will allow comparison with known birth date for those born between 1861 and 1901 and experiencing an event in the same period, that is up to a maximum age of 40 years. Comparisons for older adults will be less rigorous, as only cross-checking between the censuses and marriage and death registers is possible. We can look in particular detail at the ages at death of young children to see whether ages tend to be reported accurately in days, or rounded up to weeks or months. The tendency to over- or under-state age at different ages can be compared, and the influence on this of factors such as whether the person reporting the age is the individual or a third party (such as a parent), and the juxtaposition of external factors such relative age of spouse. For the reporting of age at marriage and death, where the informant either signs or makes a mark, the effect of literacy can also be gauged. The paper will end with an assessment of the implications for the use of age information derived from these sources.
Email: amr1001@cam.ac.uk
Long-run improvement in life expectancy since 1840: Separating quantity and efficiency in age-specific mortality change.
Jim Oeppen
Max Plank Institute for Demographic Research
Since 1840, the international frontier for life expectancy has advanced linearly at three months per calendar year. The mechanism by which this linearity has been achieved is not fully understood, but it implies that countries with very high survival have smoothly shifted the focus of mortality change from infants and children, through adults, to the elderly. The effect of an age-specific mortality change on life expectancy depends firstly on its size, and secondly on its "efficiency" - whether it occurs in an age-group that matters. The extent to which advanced economies have combined quantity with demographic efficiency since 1840 is quantified. Although efficiency is part of the historical record, mortality projections to 2050 assume total inefficiency.
Email: oeppen@demogr.mpg.de
Families and households in seventeenth century London: a social snapshot.
Mark Merry & Philip Baker
Centre for Metropolitan History, University of London
This paper seeks to examine the social and demographic make-up of the household and family in London at the end of the seventeenth century.
Evidence for this type of examination can be found in the rich taxation material of the 1690s, principal among them the returns made for the Marriage Duty Act of 1695. The value of the Marriage Duty Act material has long been recognised. Since the 1930s it has been used to analyse a whole range of demographic and social phenomena, including population density, the topography of wealth and status, occupational distribution, and household size and composition. Ongoing large-scale immigration and incredible population growth resulted in changes in the characteristics of London's population by the end of the 17th century; and the burgeoning processes of urbanisation and commercialisation changed the existing patterns of employment, material consumption, economic relationships and social regulation in the city. Without question these processes had a significant impact on the way households and families organised themselves and their domestic environment.
Using careful definitions of terms such as 'family', 'household', and 'unit', the paper seeks to place the demographic and social survey into the specific local context of five parishes at the heart of the City.
The eastern end of Cheapside, as one of London's most significant commercial centres, generated living conditions whereby domestic activities, production, retail and wholesale went on in close proximity, and where multiple occupancy and divided dwellings were the norm. Within these spaces, about which much is known for the survey area in the period after the Fire, the domestic unit was shaped. A comparison with earlier periods and the poorer parish of St Botolph Aldgate illustrates the nature and extent of this adaptation.
Email: mark.merry@sas.ac.uk
Death on a strange isle: the mortality of the stone workers of Purbeck in the nineteenth century.
Michael Edgar & Andy Hinde
University of Southampton
Occupational mortality differentials in nineteenth century England have long attracted the attention of historians. Contemporaries believed, and subsequent work has confirmed, that the mortality of miners, both of coal and of metals (such as tin and lead) was higher than the average. This paper analyses the mortality of a similar group of rural workers in an extractive industry, the stone quarriers of the Isle of Purbeck in the southern English county of Dorset. The analysis uses a database created by nominal record linkage of the census enumerators' books and the Church of England baptism and burial registers to estimate of age-specific death rates (ASDRs) at all ages for males and females, and hence statistics such as the expectation of life at birth. The ASDRs are estimated using a two-state model of the transition from life to death. The results are compared with mortality statistics published by the Registrar General of England and Wales (on the basis of the civil registers of deaths) for the Registration District of Wareham, in which Purbeck is situated. The stone quarriers had, as expected, heavier mortality levels than the rest of the population of Purbeck. Closer inspection, however, reveals that their high mortality was confined to males, and was almost entirely due to especially high mortality among boys aged less than five years. In contrast to the situation with coal and other metal miners, adult male mortality among stone workers was no higher than that among the general population. The final section of the paper speculates about the explanation for these results, especially the suggestion that genetic factors may be implicated.
Email: prahinde@aol.com
Death and burial in Newcastle-Gateshead, 1750-1850
Stuart A. Basten
University of Cambridge
This is an exploration of the various means and methods by which families disposed of their dead in this important northern town. The main goal of the paper is to demonstrate the various sources which may be employed to plug the "gaps" present in traditional contemporary demographic data.
Particular attention will be paid to children, the politics of cemetery relief and freindly society provision.
Email: sab64@cam.ac.uk
The demographic experience of the London suburbs, 1550-1750: A case study of Clerkenwell
Gill Newton
University of Cambridge
Clerkenwell in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was a large, rapidly expanding suburb on the north western edge of the City of London, adjoining the meat and livestock market of Smithfield at its densely populated city end and widening northwards into gardens, springs and open countryside. Based on a family reconstitution of the births, marriages and burials registers of both St James Clerkenwell and St John Clerkenwell, this paper will explore the demographic experiences of a suburban population from 1550 to 1753, focusing in particular on marriage patterns and infant mortality.
Family reconstitution studies in London are notoriously difficult because of high population turnover and the close proximity of other parishes. However, the Clerkenwell study is uniquely supplemented by marriage records from all London and Middlesex parishes where Clerkenwell inhabitants could be traced, increasing the observational period for a number of families and enabling more robust calculations of age at first marriage. This is particularly important in the final half century of the reconstitution (1700-53), when marriages at clandestine centres in London became so popular that they outstrip local parish church marriages. Age information in the burial register for some of the period offers the possibility of multiple ways of calculating infant mortality rates, and a comparison with annual Bills of Mortality totals sheds some light on possible tax evasion by parish officials. As Clerkenwell is an unprecedentedly large parish for computer-assisted family reconstitution, generating a total of some 120,000 vital events over the two hundred year period, it has been necessary to evaluate established record linkage methodologies and adapt them where necessary to obtain the best possible result. The study is part of a larger project to compare an affluent group of intramural parishes in Cheapside with the significantly poorer parish of Clerkenwell, and there will be some comparative consideration of the two areas.
Email: ghn22@cam.ac.uk