Migration, population distribution and ethnicity.

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Strand organiser: Tony Champion, University of Newcastle upon Tyne.

Dispersing from immigrant cities? Destination choices of the 1.5 Generation children of immigrants in the U.S.

Jamie Goodwin-White
University of Washington

This paper examines the determinants of inter-metropolitan destination choice between 1995 and 2000 for foreign-born and 1.5 generation adult children of immigrants in the U.S. In addition to distance and labour force variables, variables measuring immigrant-native wage inequality between cities and metro-level immigrant concentration are considered. A competing destinations accessibility parameter is included in order to assess the spatial structure of destination choice. Although assimilation theories, especially in their spatial assimilation variant, might suggest that intergenerational social mobility should be connected with spatial dispersion, these models reveal the continuing importance of immigrant concentration for the children of immigrants. When the destination concentration variable is added to reduced-form models, the positive effect of employment growth declines significantly, indicating that ethnic concentration may continue to be more important for the children of immigrants than economic conditions. At the same time, a comparative origin-destination immigrant-native wage gap measure is a strongly positive determinant of destination choice. Further, the increased model strength and parameter estimates associated with immigrant concentration and a concentration-weighted accessibility measure suggest the spatial structure of destination choice has much to do with immigrant concentration at multiple scales - both to metro areas and to immigrant states or regions.

From 1 September 2005 -
Division of Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ
Email: jamiegw@u.washington.edu

Ethnic population distribution, immigration and internal migration in Britain: what evidence linkage at the district scale?

John Stillwell and Oliver Duke-Williams
University of Leeds

The geographical distribution of ethnic minority groups across the nation has become characterised by concentrations in London and in certain provincial towns and cities. As non-white populations in metropolitan Britain increase in size through natural change, there is a suggestion that ethnic communities are becoming increasingly concentrated spatially across the country and that levels of segregation within the biggest cities are rising. Whilst these demographic processes are likely to be drivers of ethnic expansion and concentration, it is also fundamental to understand the dynamics that are brought about through immigration and internal migration behaviour of white and non-white ethnic groups since it is these components of population change that have been the most significant in recent decades.
Using data from the 2001 Census Area Statistics (CAS) and the Special Migration Statistics (SMS), this paper maps the geographical patterns of ethnic group residential location, immigration and internal migration across Great Britain at the district scale, measures these patterns using a number of summary indicators and then attempts to quantify the relationships between ethnic concentration and immigration, between ethnic concentration and internal migration, and between immigration and internal migration across the country. Despite an extensive literature in the USA, relatively little work on these linkages has been undertaken in Europe.

The level of disaggregation by ethnic group is determined by the seven categories available in Table 3 of the 2001 SMS at district level, thus allowing variations to be observed between whites; Indians; Pakistanis and other South Asians; Chinese; Caribbean, African. Black British and other black; mixed; and other. A broad classification of districts by type of local authority will be used to summarize the patterns. Recommendations will be made for more detailed analysis using origin-destination flows data.

Email: j.c.h.stillwell@geog.leeds.ac.uk

Moving home: how migration affects London's ethnic composition

Marian Mackintosh, and Eileen Howes
Independent Consultant & Greater London Authority

The GLA commissioned two tables from the 2001 Census which contain information on the migration flows of ethnic groups in London boroughs. The tables contain information on how people from different ethnic groups moved around London in the year before the 2001 Census, as well as moves between London and the rest of Great Britain, and moves into London from countries outside England & Wales. These datasets allow the influence of migration patterns on the ethnic composition of London to be assessed. The data are available by age and gender. The ethnic categories contained within the data are the 10 ethnic groups used in the GLA's ethnic group projection model, which are the same categories included in the 1991 Census. This paper summarises the main patterns shown by the data and illustrates these with a series of maps.

Email: Marian.Mackintosh@blueyonder.co.uk , Eileen.Howes@london.gov.uk

Population dynamics in Oldham and Rochdale: the nature of dispersal

Ludi Simpson
University of Manchester

The relationship between race and sub-national migration has increasing relevance to social policy, over and above the bubbling politics of race and international migration. Forecasting demand for services depends on population dynamics, and the nature of that demand depends on an understanding of how the distinctiveness of different 'ethnic groups' is carried forward across time, space and generations. Additionally, a tension between 'segregation' and 'community cohesion' is high on the agenda of government social policy.
It has been established that the population dynamics of settled Black and Asian communities in Britain can be understood by separately identifying the contributions of natural change and migration, but there are few data to measure these components. This paper reviews the measurement of race and migration from the census and develops indirect estimators of the net impact of migration and natural change for the decade 1991-2001. Small areas within Oldham and Rochdale, with significant Bangladeshi and Pakistani populations, provide empirical evidence based on research for the Councils and the Housing Market Renewal pathfinder project in those two northern England Boroughs.

The results show clear patterns of dispersal, with two characteristics. Natural demographic growth from a young population creates migration of Asian families into areas neighbouring the original settlement areas, with similar socio-economic characteristics but fewer children. At the same time migrants who move further afield tend to have more resources, creating social stratification in much the same way as counter-urbanisation has affected the whole of Britain in the past half-century.

Email: ludi.simpson@man.ac.uk

Montreal nationalism: a default multidimensional identity

Yolande Bouka
Seton Hall University, NJ

This research was conducted on the urban/local nationalism in Montreal. The intent was to develop a theory, or to contribute to existing theories, which would explain why many Montrealers who are not of French or British descent define their identity as Montrealers, or Canadians to a much lesser extent, but not as Quebecois, while maintaining ambiguous ties to their homelands. This topic is not only relevant in understanding the crisis faced by Quebecois nationalism, but also helps conceptualize the relative stability of Canada as a country of opened citizenship, but not necessarily as a nation. In order to develop our model, we explored different theories and studies related to the conditions of Montreal, Quebec, and Canada as a whole. We looked into studies addressing nationalism, taking into account language and ethnicity as markers of identity, territorialization of nationality, bilingualism and identity, and transnationalism.

After developing a theoretical framework, a focus group, composed of Montrealers of different ethnic backgrounds, was carried out, during which were discussed: markers of identity, citizenship, patriotism, immigration, perception of identity, and ethnic and civic nationalism. So far our findings have led us to conclude that a growing number of Montrealers coming from ethnic minorities tend to define themselves as members of a nation confined within the Greater Region of Montreal due to the lack of specificity of what the Canadian nation is, and the fact that most people have an ethnic understanding of Quebecois nationalism rather than a civic one. Furthermore, the politicization of language usage in Quebec has led non-"Quebecois de souche" to refuse to take part in the debate that would crystallize language usage with identity, since a strong percentage of minority Montrealers are multilingual.

Email: boukayol@shu.edu

Patterns of migration and community formation among the Amish in the United States

Elizabeth C. Cooksey and Joseph F. Donnermeyer
The Ohio State University

Attracted by opportunities to own land in Pennsylvania, the first Amish moved to North America from Europe in 1737. By 1900 there were few Amish remaining in Europe but approximately 5000 in the United States living in approximately 20 communities. Today there are more than 200,000 Amish in North America living in approximately 350 communities, and the Amish population is doubling approximately every 20 years. A major response to rapid population growth has been migration to new areas of the United States.

Our analysis of Amish migration patterns is made up of two parts. First using community data from Amish publications including 3 newspapers that serve an Amish readership, we examine issues related to the formation of new communities, paying particular attention to factors associated with the search for appropriate locations for new communities, the point of origin of founding families, and motivations for establishing new communities: why certain families move there and what kinds of events are related to building the economic, social, and religious infrastructure necessary to sustain new Amish settlements over time. Second, we are able to analyze individual level data derived from published directories of various Amish settlements in Ohio. Ohio has the largest percentage of Amish families in the country with 27% of all Amish communities. A subset of the larger directories contain information about individual moves enabling us to examine the associations between moving to another community and various demographic and family background characteristics.

Email: Cooksey@experimentcentral.org
Cooksey.1@osu.edu

The impact of ethnic preference policies on inter-ethnic relations - Malaysia and Sri Lanka

Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran
National University of Singapore

Despite the voluminous scholarship on the proliferation of inter-ethnic conflicts in the multi-ethnic developing countries, a phenomenon of great significance remains largely unexamined: the impact of ethnic preference policies on inter-ethnic relation across multi-ethnic developing countries. The paper is an attempt to evaluate the ethnic preference policies and inter ethnic relation in Malaysia and Sri Lanka. In comparing the records of ethnic preference policies, Malaysia has been more extreme than Sri Lanka. While Sri Lanka's ethnic preference policy is limited mainly to the question of representation in public sector employment, education opportunity, and public policy, the ethnic preferential policy in Malaysia is more all pervasive, affecting most domains of society. Unlike Sri Lanka, almost all policy issues in Malaysia have been affected by ethnicity, including language, education, government, employment, business licenses, immigration, internal security, foreign policy, or virtually everything else. But comparing the consequence of ethnic preference policy, positive aspects of preferential policy encountered in Malaysia while negative in Sri Lanka. The principal problem here, while maintaining with a similar pluralistic society why Sri Lanka failed when a country like Malaysia succeeded. The findings of this paper suggest that the Malaysian governments put in place appropriate economic policies and planning exercises with ethnic preference policies to ensure better standard of living for all citizens at the right time.

Email: artp1493@nus.edu.sg

Questions of identity in the millennium round of Commonwealth censuses

A.J. Christopher
Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa

All Commonwealth census authorities have posed questions concerning identity in the millennium round of enumerations. The most controversial has been ethnicity. It is significant that no universal definition or classification system has been devised and each of the sixty-nine states and dependencies has tended to pursue the enquiry in virtual isolation from its neighbours. A simple standard Imperial classification in the early nineteenth century was abandoned as each colony recognised and explored the peculiarities of its own society. Inherited from the colonial era has been the attempt to describe the population in ethnic terms, although the terms and definitions currently used are sometimes different from those adopted in an earlier period. In some cases nation building and the promotion of a distinct national identity have been bound up in ethnic identification. More recently the requirements of monitoring the progress of affirmative action programmes in multi-cultural populations have resulted in the introduction or refinement of such questions. A few states, however, remain hostile to such an enquiry and so it is not pursued, but they remain a small minority of Commonwealth countries. The other questions of nationality, language and religion often fill the gaps left, supplying additional refinements in the depiction of identity. As a result an examination of current identity questioning in Commonwealth censuses reveals a highly complex and incoherent picture.

Email: AJ.Christopher@nmmu.ac.za

Population changes in Greece during the period 1940-51

Nikolaos Mostratos
University of Newcastle upon Tyne

This paper examines the changes that occurred in the population of Greece, during the turbulent period of 1940-51. The massive population changes during WWII, caused mainly by the war and resistance casualties, the destruction of towns and villages because of bombardments and German and Bulgarian atrocities, the great famine in the cities and remote areas, the holocaust of Greek Jews, the migration of people to safer areas, etc. are studied. The aftermath of WWII and the following Greek Civil War, caused even more dramatic changes, with more casualties, destroyed villages, especially in mountainous areas, the departure of non Greek speaking population groups (Bulgarians, Slavomacedonians, Albanians, Italians), the departure of political refuges to communist eastern European countries, etc.

I attempt to estimate the numbers and spatial distribution of the whole population and non-Greek speaking groups, by 1940, using overall population from the 1940 census and demographic data (including religion and language) from the census of 1928. I then compare them with the spatial distributions in 1951, to identify and determine these major changes in space and time. As a result of numerous administrative changes during this period, I had to create a detailed cartographic base of 1928-1951 in order for the data to be comparable. This is the first attempt to demonstrate spatially at the "OTA" level (local authority level), these population changes of the period and how some of them occurred in specific areas of Greece.

E-Mail: nikolaos.mostratos@newcastle.ac.uk

The Community Health Index for proxy measures of migration in Scotland

Cecilia Macintyre and Gillian Miller
General Register Office for Scotland

Since 1999 the General Register Office for Scotland has been using the Community Health Index to produce estimates of migration for use in calculating mid-year population estimates at a local authority level. Following a demand for population estimates at a smaller geography level, work was undertaken to use the CHI to create ward level estimates using the apportionment method. However, a review of these estimates following the 2001 Census proved them to be flawed and so the cohort-component method used to create local authority estimates was adopted for the production of small area population estimates (SAPE).

This paper looks at the use of the CHI since 2001 to estimate migration and the patterns of migration which have been generated at a local authority level. The initial results of the SAPE work will be presented, with reference to the differential patterns of migration at a small area level as recorded on the CHI. The processes involved in addressing the migration estimation problems found in areas of special populations will also be included.

Email: Cecilia.Macintyre@gro-scotland.gsi.gov.uk

Factors associated with commuting behaviour in England and Wales

David Owen and Anne Green
University of Warwick

Improving the accessibility of employment opportunities to non-employed people is of increasing importance for the UK government's labour market policies at a time when high levels of non-employment coexist alongside employment opportunities in many areas. This paper presents a series of regression models of geographical variations in the likelihood of being in work and of commuting behaviour using data from the 2001 Census. These models explicitly build space into labour market models via a series of explanatory variables which summarise the employment opportunities and workers of different types accessible to a given location. The paper explains how these variables are derived from the 'population potential' model formulation, and illustrates how this approach can be used in other types of local labour market models. Key results from various models are presented, with particular emphasis on those relating to people with poor skills (using qualification and occupation as a proxy for skills). This paper draws upon the findings of a research project t funded by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, entitled 'The geography of poor skills and access to work'.

Email: d.w.owen@warwick.ac.uk

Ethnic differences in commuting patterns in London

Eileen Howes
Greater London Authority

This paper is based on 2001 Census travel to work data from tables commissioned by the Greater London Authority. It looks at differences in commuting patterns and means of travel between ethnic groups in London. It also includes some analysis of workers by ethnic group, gender and occupation, industry, hours worked.

Email: eileen.howes@london.gov.uk

The likely impact of globalisation on internal migration, urbanisation and international migration with special reference to India

Atreji Majumdar
Delhi University

The increasing socio-economic-political integration of different nations, and the subsequent compression of the world through globalization, contains an immense potential for accelerating the movement of people across nations. Globalisation, with its uneven, uncertain and disruptive impacts, is expected to give a spurt to emigration from developing countries like India towards the affluent countries of the West, just as it is uprooting people from the rural areas and drawing them towards the cities resulting in rapid urbanization. At present, 20-30 million of the world's poorest people migrate to the cities each year.

However, this process does not seem to have gathered momentum in India yet. According to the 2001 Census, even though India has shown unmistakeable signs of growing 'metropolitisation', there has been a decline in the propensity to migrate in recent decades and the average annual rate of urban population growth slowed from 3.11% in 1991 to 2.71% in 2001. Nevertheless, the coming decades may easily reverse these trends, following large-scale job losses after the introduction of structural adjustment programmes.

This paper attempts to unravel the forces which may exacerbate the migration pressure in India culminating in mass exodus from the rural areas to cities and to the international arena in the near future.

Department of Economics, University of Delhi. UK address: 7 St Peter's Drive, Highfields, Blackwood, Gwent NP12 2ER

Measure of the integration of foreign migrants in Italy: some new experiences

G. Baio (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & Università di Milano-Bicocca, Department of Statistics) and M. Blangiardo (Imperial College London & Fondazione ISMU, Milano)

The objective of this contribution is to analyse thoroughly the theme of immigrant population integration within Italian territory. We make reference to a specific area, the Lombardia region (about 10 million inhabitants), for which a comprehensive information system is already available, which allows to monitor annually the phenomenon. This feature is unique in Italy -and the level of details is totally original and innovative- as in Lombardia region each year, since 2001, a survey is conducted over a probabilistic sample of around 8000 immigrants. In this work, we utilize the whole dataset acquired during the last four years (about 32000 cases). The sample, representative of the universe of individuals on the territory in terms of province, made available some structural, individual and family characteristics of foreign immigrants: gender, age, marital status, citizenship, education, religion, regular position of the staying, residence, housing condition, economic activity, and so on.

The level of integration and the differential aspects related to it are measured by a latent class model. In other words, we suppose the existence of a latent, unobservable variable, which represents the real integration level, for each group of individuals. The observed data are then used to infer back about the probability distribution associated with that variable.

Email: m.blangiardo@imperial.ac.uk

Immigration and labour accessibility in Madrid, Spain

Vicente Rodríguez, Ricardo Méndez, Ascensión Calatrava, and Ana Melero
Institute of Economics and Geography (CSIC), Madrid, Spain

Immigration from developing countries is rapidly increasing in Spain in the last years to reach more than 8% over Spanish population, being Madrid (and other metropolitan and economic regions) on the lead of this process. Such increase in the amount of newcomers, mostly workers, is generating a bunch of new economic situations and behaviours in the whole Madrid society. So, regional government is intending to design some policy measures to match the immigrants' labour conditions to the local market demands.

The paper is dedicated first to the analysis of the geographical features of the immigrant workers in the metropolitan region of Madrid, their employment and economic activity as well as the labour accessibility trajectories to the local demands, according to their educational attainment and new opportunities to overcome specific breakdowns. A review of former research has been completed to guide the analysis and to outline some conclusions for policy action in the region.

Data have been taken from a face-to-face questionnaire have given to a sample of the most relevant national communities (Ecuadorians, Moroccans, Colombians and Romanians) in Madrid and the metropolitan surroundings, following a direct and active approach to immigrant associations in Madrid. Methodology is completed with a set of personal interviews and focus groups.

Email: rodri@ieg.csic.es

Highly skilled migration and ethnic networks

Fei Qin
MIT Sloan School of Management & International Labor Office, Geneva

The increasing mass movement of engineers and professionals from developing to industrial countries since 1980s has rekindled the debates over the dimensions of highly skilled migration. In contrast to the previous one-way "brain drain," researchers have suggested that the new wave of highly skilled migration is characterized by a round-trip movement, or "brain circulation." However, most of the existing literature takes a functionalist perspective toward the "brain circulation" by focusing on the human capital side of story, and often looks at it on a highly aggregated level. This study examines the highly skilled migration as social processes. The project seeks to explore the development of social networks in the migration processes, and transformation of ethnic identity, and the labour market processes that connect highly skilled migration to the career outcomes for migrants.

The study is based on qualitative data from a semi-ethnographical study of the highly skilled Chinese community in Boston. The data used consists of 50 interviews of Chinese engineers and professionals, and participatory observations in three ethnicity-based associations, complemented by data from a survey. The study finds that co-ethnic networks, either formal or informal, provide important economic resources for migrants' labour market adaptation and serve as critical linkages between Diasporas and home countries. In particular, alumni and work ties, instead of family and kinship ties, are the most useful contacts for job search in both host and home countries. These ties are also important in promoting entrepreneurial activities.

Email: feiqin@mit.edu

Geographical analysis of fine level population changes in Greece: 1951 to 2001

Seraphim Alvanides
University of Newcastle upon Tyne

Post-war Greece has been gradually transformed from an agricultural economy to one of the fastest growing economies in Europe. In line with most other European countries, Greece experienced a significant degree of urbanisation from late 1940s to early 1990s. More specifically, the rural population declined from 52% in 1951 to 28% in 1991, while the urban population increased from 33% to 59% during the same period. This trend has been well documented at the national level and for large administrative areas such as the 52 "nomoi" (Kotzamanis & Androulaki 2004), but very little empirical research has been carried out for smaller geographical areas. Recent attempts to evaluate population changes in post-war Greece have either focused on specific areas, such as the mountainous settlements of Epirus (Karanikolas et al. 2003) or specific ethnic groups (Mostratos & Alvanides 2004). Preliminary analysis of population bases for the 1991 and the 2001 censuses has demonstrated that the degree and intensity of urbanisation may have been underestimated at the finer geographical scale.
This paper reports on a project linking the six decennial censuses for the period 1951-2001 for Greece. It applies innovative methods, developed recently in the UK, for linking demographic and population data at the finest geographical level of communities. In addition, the paper presents empirical evidence at a fine geographical scale towards understanding the detailed patterns of urbanisation in post-war Greece. The paper will quantify and evaluate detailed population changes in Greece during the above period, by attempting to answer the following questions: Which communities were affected from the post-war urbanisation wave? How did the demography of Greece change at a fine geographical scale? Did the various governments' counter-urbanisation policies have any effect? Is there any evidence of a counter-urbanisation trend from 1981 onwards?

Email: s.alvanides@newcastle.ac.uk

Comparisons between survey and population estimates of recent UK emigration

Giles Horsfield, Michael Rendall and Emma Wright
Office for National Statistics

In this study, we compare the UK's International Passenger Survey (IPS) estimates of emigration to continental Europe against alternative survey and register data sources in the 1990s and early 2000s. The IPS's estimated emigration flows to continental Europe are compared with estimates from those countries' "UK immigrant inflow" as seen from the continental EU receiving countries. These receiving country inflows are estimated alternately from the European Labour Force Surveys (EU LFS) and from individual country population register sources. The results show EU LFS estimates of total flows from the UK to continental Europe to be much lower those of the IPS and register estimates. IPS emigrant and receiving-country's immigrant estimates from population registers are more similar, with differences generally in the direction of lower IPS than register estimates. When analysing flows additionally by citizenship of the migrant, the EU LFS estimates are found to be much closer to the IPS and register estimates for returning citizens (non-UK citizens), while apparently severely underestimating their inflows of UK citizens.

Email: Giles.Horsfield@ons.gov.uk , Michael.Rendall@ons.gov.uk  Emma.Wright@ons.gov.uk

Are our cities still losing human capital? The evidence of the 'moving group' data from the 2001 Census

Tony Champion and Mike Coombes
University of Newcastle upon Tyne

Surveys often indicate that British - and especially English - people have a strong preference for living in the country, and detailed research has shown that the higher-skilled groups in the labour force predominate among the net migration flow from Britain's larger cities. Yet the new century has been greeted with claims of the revival of many large cities. Most notably, with so many of these centred in the old industrial areas, policy-makers are looking to this urban revival for the regeneration of the northern regions. One key aspiration is for cities to drive growth in the 'knowledge economy' through the attraction of professional and managerial migrants.

This paper examines new evidence to assess whether most larger British cities have started to gain, rather than lose, high-skilled migrants. The analyses use the 2000-2001 migration data from the latest Census to examine flows of migrants categorised by socio-economic class. The particular focus is on the flows of professionals and managers into, out of, and between 27 large cities and their regions.

Email: tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk

Comparative geographical study of out-migration between England & Wales and Japan using global and local statistical models

Stamatis Kalogirou1 , Tomoki Nakaya2 and Keiji Yano2
1London School of Economics, 2Ritsumeikan University, Japan

The aim of this paper is to compare migration behaviour between England & Wales and Japan with special attention to geographical variations in out-migration determinants. In order to achieve this we use a contemporary method of spatial analysis, namely Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). GWR allows spatially disaggregated (local) modelling by which we can find geographically local variations in migration and its determinants. Kalogirou during his doctoral studies built upon existing work to examine local models of internal migration using GWR. In Japan, in recent years there is a major contribution to this area. modelled destination choice for migrants also using GWR. A recent paper by Yano et al. allowed comparisons to be made between the migrant behaviour in Britain and Japan.

Here we combine the expertise in this area in order to study out-migration processes in both countries. The data sources for both migration and the explanatory variables for England and Wales come from the 2001 Census for Population. In the case of Japan the data come from the 2000 Population Census of Japan. The data are disaggregated by age and sex and the geography used is at the local authority level. Overall, the results of local models are novel in both Britain and Japan and allow a better understanding of the spatial variation of the effect economic conditions have on out-migration. The results also provide some evidence for universal trends in what determines the decision to migrate. This study was financially supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) under the "FY2004 JSPS Postdoctoral Fellowship for Foreign Researcher" (ID: PE 04012).

Email s.kalogirou@lse.ac.uk

Analysing the 2001 inter-district migration matrix

Robin Flowerdew and Zhiqiang Feng
University of St Andrews

Migration data for Great Britain from the 2001 Census are available from the Census Interaction Data Service and can be compared with other census variables at the areal unit level. This paper takes inter-district flows for local authorities in Great Britain. Following some descriptive discussion of the larger flows, drawing attention to military moves, we fit a series of statistical models to the data using Poisson regression analysis, investigating the relationship of migration to size and distance, and to a range of variables including demographic, economic, housing, employment and ethnic factors. In addition to analysis of total flows, models are presented for the same data disaggregated by age and sex, showing clear differences in the pattern between different groups. Stress is placed on the role of particular places as centres of migration activity.

Email: r.flowerdew@st-andrews.ac.uk

Population turnover for deprived neighbourhoods: structural or pathological?

Nick Bailey and Mark Livingston
University of Glasgow

There is a long history of Government interventions in small areas or "neighbourhoods" with the aim of tackling problems of multiple deprivation, stimulating area regeneration and so on. Under the present government, there has been renewed effort in this regard, and a major investment has been made in neighbourhood statistics so that the characteristics of small areas can be tracked over time. Remarkably little is known about the dynamics of change within these areas, however, including changes resulting from population turnover or migration; this is particularly surprising given that it is these flows which are the principal drivers of area change. In general, deprived areas are seen as having high levels of turnover which both reflect other social problems in these areas and reinforce them. In other words, turnover is seen in pathological terms for these neighbourhoods. Using migration data from the 2001 Census, the paper analyses the relationships between gross turnover and area deprivation for small areas in England and Scotland (Super Output Areas and Datazones, respectively). It stresses the extent to which higher turnover is a function of the structure of deprived areas or their population composition. It does also note, however, the wide variations between deprived areas and seeks further explanations for these in terms of neighbourhood and broader, regional influences.

Email: n.bailey@socsci.gla.ac.uk

21st Century migrants: who are they, and where are they going?

Daniel Vickers & Phil Rees
University of Leeds

By studying the rates of migration across the UK, we can establish trends in terms of numbers of migrants. However more information about migrants is needed to ascertain what types of people are migrating, this is especially relevant at very fine levels of geography. To find this information the migration data needs to be profiled against some form of socio-economic data. This will provide additional information about those people who have migrated. The release of the ONS/University of Leeds Classification of Census Output Areas provides the ideal product for this analysis to be done; it provides a plethora of information at a fine level of geography. By profiling the migration figures against the classification we have been able to extract some very interesting trends and patterns that form a picture of the migrants within the UK at the start of the 21st Century.

Email: d.vickers@geog.leeds.ac.uk

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