Wednesday 10 September 2003, 6:30pm, Conference Centre. Posters will be displayed throughout the conference.
The 2001 census - the most comprehensive survey of the UK population
P Vickers and K Whitfield, Office for National Statistics
The results of the 2001 census represent our best estimate of the population of the United Kingdom. The use of the very latest technology and new statistical methods are factors that contributed to its success. To reflect changes in the way people now work and live, the census was organised differently so that census forms were issued with reply-paid envelopes so they could be posted back. This freed up the field force to concentrate on areas where response was low.
Census information was captured from digital images and by the use of optical mark recognition and optical character recognition software. Questions were coded using a combination of automatic software and manual intervention.
To adjust the results of the 2001 census to take account of the fact that a single attempt at counting the population never counts everyone, a new strategy known as the one number census methodology was used. This strategy was developed by statisticians from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Southampton University and was overseen by an independent panel of experts and subject to extensive consultation.
The results of the census have been subject to rigorous quality assurance which included demographic analysis using population estimates and aggregated administrative sources. Since their release, ONS are continuing to review the census results and have engaged with users and taken forward the matching exercises to help better understand the results of the census. This poster gives an overview of how the best technology and statistical methods were used to achieve a count of the entire population of the UK
Email: census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk
The 2001 census - what's available...
P Vickers and K Whitfield, Office for National Statistics
The census is a comprehensive count of all people and households. It provides essential statistical information enabling planning and funding of public services, including education, health and transport. The first results from the 2001 census were issued on 30 September 2002. Further results have since been released in reports to Parliament, and on National Statistics Online, many as part of the Neighbourhood Statistics Service. These are being complemented by commentaries on important findings and the development of services to provide customised census output. This poster highlights the many kinds of statistics that are available, how they can be obtained and what can be expected in the future.
Email: census.customerservices@ons.gov.uk
Living arrangements and place of death of people with cancer: results from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study of England and Wales
Emily Grundy, David Mayer, Harriet Young and Andy Sloggett, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
The objective of this paper is to determine whether the household circumstances of people aged 50 and over with cancer differ from those of the rest of the population; whether cancer incidence is a precursor of household change; and whether living arrangements and health of primary co-resident are associated with place of death among those dying of cancer and those dying from other causes. This is a prospective record linkage study of a one per cent sample of the population of England and Wales (the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study).
We found that the household circumstances of people with cancer were very similar to those of the rest of the population and both showed a large increase in living alone, and decrease in living with relatives, between 1981 and 1991. We found no evidence that cancer incidence is a precursor of transitions in household type.
The primary co-resident of cancer sufferers who did not live alone was in most cases a spouse, with much smaller proportions living with a child, sibling or other person. 30 per cent of spouse, and 23 per cent of other primary co-residents, had a limiting long term illness. Compared with people who lived alone in 1991, odds of a home death among those dying of cancer in 1991-95 were highest for those who lived with a spouse who had no limiting long term illness (2.52, 2.15 to 2.98), and raised for those living with a spouse with a long term illness (2.14, 1.79 to 2.56) and those living with someone else who was free of long term illness (2.13, 1.69 to 2.68). Lower socio-economic status, both individual and area, was associated with reduced chance of a home death.
The increased trend towards residential independence in the older population is as evident among people with cancer as in the rest of the population and has important implications for delivery of cancer treatments, including palliative and terminal care.
Email: Emily.grundy@lshtm.ac.uk
Email: david.mayer@lshtm.ac.uk
Email: harriet.young@lshtm.ac.uk
Email: andy.sloggett@lshtm.ac.uk
Areal variation in contraceptive use in East Africa
S Clements, A Baschieri, M Hennink, N Madise, R Stephenson, University of Southampton
Research has shown that the decision to adopt a modern method of contraception is closely related to a number of individual and household demographic and socio-economic factors, although substantial variation in contraceptive use often exists even when controlling for these factors. Previous research on contraceptive use has focussed on the role of such individual and household factors, and has largely ignored the influence of the social and physical environment in which the individual lives.
The application of multilevel modelling techniques to contraceptive use has facilitated the identification of areal level random effects. The presence of significant random effects indicates that contraceptive use varies across spatial units, and that the factors available in large-scale social surveys are often not adequate in explaining all the variation in outcomes between units.
The unexplained heterogeneity in contraceptive use has previously been accounted for through regional variations in cultural, linguistic and behavioural practices that influence health seeking behaviour or the location of health services. There has been little in-depth examination of these factors for explaining variations in modern contraceptive use, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. This is primarily due to the relatively recent uptake in modern methods in this region. Consequently, there is a need to examine a range of individual, household and contextual factors that may create areal variations in contraceptive use in this setting. This paper aims to identify areal variations in contraceptive use in three East African countries, and to examine patterns in such variation across and between the countries.
The main sources of contraceptive use data for developing countries are the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Recently these surveys, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have collected a global positional system (GPS) locator for the primary sampling units (PSUs) in the survey. This allows for maps of the modelling results to be plotted in order to better inform researchers and local policymakers, by highlighting those areas with unusually high or low contraceptive use. Using this new approach, the contextual characteristics of these areas can then be investigated as potential determinants of areal variations in contraceptive use.
The objectives of this poster are:
-
to quantify, using DHS data, the determinants of the use of modern contraception in three East African countries;
-
to identify communities of unusually high or low contraceptive use within each of these countries after controlling for a range of bio-demographic and socio-economic variables; and
-
to map the outlying communities within each country and to examine the variations in contraceptive use both within and across the three countries.
Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania were selected for this study as the GPS location identifiers were collected in these countries. It was also of interest to choose neighbouring countries to allow the identification of patterns in areal variation that may transcend political boundaries.
Findings from multilevel models will be presented that estimate the determinants of contraceptive use in each of the three countries. The models are estimated separately for each of the three countries, to allow a comparison of determinants between countries.
The models take the form of three-level logistic models, with women (level one) nested within primary sampling units (level two) that are nested within districts (level three). The use of multilevel modelling allows for this hierarchical data structure. The PSU and district level residuals are then used to identify areas in which women have unusually high or low odds of contraceptive use after controlling for a range of bio-demographic and socio-economic factors. The outlying communities identified in the modelling of contraceptive use will then be plotted using the ArcView package.
This research provides a unique opportunity to advance the methodology used to explain areal variations in contraceptive use in developing countries through combining multilevel modelling and geographic information systems. It also facilitates a comparison of the determinants of modern contraceptive use across three East African countries.
Email: ab5@socsci.soton.ac.uk
Development of census microdata as a teaching and learning resource
Mark Brown, University of Manchester
The poster will report on a Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC) funded project (to end in September 2003) to increase use of historical and contemporary census data (CHCC) in learning and teaching. Specifically it will outline the set of teaching materials developed at the Centre for Census and Survey Research based on the Sample of Anonymised Records (SAR). The materials build on new web-based modes of data access and exploration to deliver hands-on learning with real SAR data in methodological and substantive areas.
The Economic and Social Data Service
Jo Wathan and Vanessa Higgins, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR), University of Manchester
The Economic and Social Data Service (ESDS) is a new national data archiving and dissemination service that came into operation in January 2003. The service brings together expertise from The UK Data Archive, CCSR, The Institute for Social and Economic Research and Manchester Information & Associated Services (MIMAS).
ESDS provides data archiving, dissemination and user support services for many key data sources of use to demographers, including large government surveys such as the General Household and Health Survey for England. Value added services including training and improved documentation are also provided.
See The Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research.
Email: Jo.Wathan@man.ac.uk
In, out, in, out, they're moving all about: an examination into those leaving Liverpool
E Davies, University of Liverpool
This poster will seek to represent key findings that have been carried out as part of a University of Liverpool PhD studentship, 'The Leaving of Liverpool'. The aim of the research has been to examine the migratory characteristics of people who have left Liverpool and the reasons behind this geographical mobility.
The demographic knowledge of Liverpool is widely recognised and much talked about, via academic journals, the media and so forth. However, there has been little research done from a social perspective, for example, on who is leaving the city, where they are leaving to and why they are leaving.
This poster will aim to identify the mixed methods approach adopted: whereby qualitative interviews assessing 'place' and why or why not Liverpool, has been combined with quantitative work, looking specifically at the characteristics of migrants. The quantitative methodology will include looking at the 1971-91 Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) and assessing where the people who are leaving are going to; and also addressing the socio-economic characteristics of those who have left and those who have moved into Liverpool. Questions will be discussed such as: does a migration depend on one's socio-economic status; who are the people leaving Liverpool; why are they leaving and who are the people who are coming into the city and why?
Email: e.davies@liv.ac.uk
Abortion decline in the Baltic States
Gail Grant, University of Southampton
Research issue to be addressed
Until just over a decade ago the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were Soviet republics. It has been suggested that throughout the Soviet period, family limitation in the USSR was predominantly achieved through induced abortion. Contraceptives were perceived as unreliable or even dangerous. The only contraceptive supplies available (legally) were those produced behind the 'iron curtain'. These were less modern, less reliable and more hazardous than those available in the West. The promotion of family planning was limited, while abortion was legal and accessible, and attitudes to abortion were liberal.
Abortion rates have declined in the Baltic states over the years since independence, but remain high. This can be interpreted in two ways: as a sluggish decline or a success story. The first would assume 'failure' of policy makers and service providers to replace abortion with contraception as the primary method of fertility control over the last decade, while the second would acknowledge abortion decline as a success, given the context.
Methodology and data
Aggregate population, abortion and birth statistics from the Council of Europe publication Recent Demographic Developments in Europe will be used to demonstrate, using a simple simulation model, how prevailing fertility levels might influence abortion rates.
Results
I will argue that success in reducing the role of abortion has been remarkable, given that fertility decline has been so pronounced over the 1990s. If we can imagine a hypothetical situation where fertility had remained at 1991 levels, the number of abortions might have been considerably lower. While it is commonly accepted that there is an important association between abortion rates and contraceptive use (and use-effectiveness), it must also be the case that the 'imperative of low fertility' acts to maintain high abortion rates. Hence, trends in abortion rates cannot be discussed without reference to fertility levels.
Email: gpg@socsci.soton.ac.uk