Friday 12 September 2003, 11am, Quiet Room
Living apart together and stepfamilies
John Haskey, Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This paper will report on results obtained from running two separate modules of questions in the ONS Omnibus Survey on the two subjects of the title. The module of questions on living apart together (LAT), ie non-co-residential cohabitation, was recently designed as an initial exploratory tool to investigate the prevalence and residence of non-married respondents who report that they have a regular partner who is not usually resident in the same household. (Similar questions are asked of married respondents whose spouse is not usually co-resident - to act as a comparison group.) In addition, for LAT respondents, the sex of the regular partner is asked - so enabling a trial estimate of the relative number of same-sex LAT couples.
In contrast, the module of questions on stepfamilies has, in essence, been run before. The questions have been revised in the light of disadvantages and some inconsistencies detected in the results of answers to the previous set of questions. Findings on cohabiting couple stepfamilies will be distinguished from those of married couple stepfamilies, and comparisons made with the set of previous 1990-92 results. Most importantly, because the stepfamilies module of questions has been purposely concurrently run with the LAT module, it is hoped that some extra results can be derived, based on the possible interdependence of the two subjects.
Family Demography Unit
Population and Demography Division
Office for National Statistics
1 Drummond Gate
London SW1V 2QQ
Tel: +44 (0)20 7533 5121
Fax: +44 (0)20 7533 5103
Email address: john.haskey@ons.gov.uk
The implication of the census for household estimates and projections
Dave King, Population and Housing Research Group, Anglia Polytechnic University
The paper outlines the official projection process and then examines the implications of the census for official household estimates and projections at national and regional levels. A comparison is made of the census 2001 position versus the previously projected 2001 position, revealing overall that there were fewer people and households than had previously been anticipated nationally. The paper then considers the two main types of impact:
-
relating to the revised view of net migration levels engendered by the census results (and their possible impact on projections at national and regional level); and
-
more detailed impacts of census estimates of transient population numbers, marital composition and household composition.
Population and Housing Research Group
Anglia Polytechnic University
Victoria Road South
Chelmsford
Essex CM1 1LL
Tel: +44(0)1245 493131 x 3264
Fax: +44(0)1245 493136
Email address: d.g.king@apu.ac.uk
Socio-economic characteristics, completed fertility, and the transition from low to high order parities in Mexico
Alfonso Miranda, Economics Department, University of Warwick
The present paper reports a study on the socio-economic determinants of completed fertility in Mexico. Special attention is given to how socio-economic factors such as religion and ethnic group affect the likelihood of transition from low to high order parities. This methodological approach allows the researcher to enquiry about the role that such socio-economic characteristics have played in the process of adoption and diffusion of a low fertility norm in Mexico.
Hurdle Poisson and Negative Binomial count data models are used as main econometric tools. Among other models, an endogenous treatment (or sample selection) count specification is estimated. The findings indicate that Catholicism is associated to reductions in the likelihood of transiting from low to high order parities in Mexico and that broad ethnic group does not affect such a probability. Hence, empirical results suggest that ethnic background does not constitute an obstacle for the diffusion of a low fertility norm (contraception use) in Mexico.
Department of Economics
University of Warwick
Coventry CV4 7AL
Email: Alfonso.Miranda-Caso-Luengo@warwick.ac.uk