Friday 12 September 2003, 11am, Conference Centre
A 'cultural' census for London
Baljit Bains, Greater London Authority
The 1991 census was the first time a question on ethnicity was asked in a UK census. In 2001 the number of categories was expanded, particularly with the addition of 'mixed' categories and subdivisions of the 'white' category in England and Wales. A further (voluntary) question on religion was added. These, together with country of birth, make up the 'cultural variables' in the census.
This paper aims to explore the issues regarding the census's cultural data, looking at change as far as it can be measured, and at the value of these variables to researchers and policy makers. The diversity of the population in the capital makes this a particularly important area for research and information for London, but this does not mean the issues are not relevant elsewhere.
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Authority
City Hall
Queen's Walk
London SE1 2AA
Tel: +44 (0)20 7983 4613
Fax: +44 (0)20 7983 4057
Email: Baljit.Bains@london.gov.uk
Population projections of minority ethnic groups in England: what can we conclude from the differences with the 2001 census?
Lee Williamson, University of Manchester
The paper will offer an assessment of various population projections by ethnic group for England only. The ten main classifications of ethnic group as used in the 1991 census are projected forward and evaluated using the 2001 census results.
The forecasting package Popgroup, which uses the standard cohort component method to project, is used to create the projections. An introduction is given to all the different data sources incorporated in the projections, and the various sets of assumptions for the components of change over the period are outlined. For example, for fertility, one scenario of using age-specific fertility rates for each of the ten ethnic groups is compared to projections containing different fertility assumptions. Similarly for mortality, different scenarios of assumptions are considered.
The most plausible projection of England's natural increase over the decade will then be assessed using the 2001 census results. The projection will also be evaluated with respect to the changing categories of ethnic group since the 1991 census. Some of the newly created categories, for example the mixed categories included in the 2001 census, are amalgamated in order to calibrate the projection for evaluation. Interpretation of the findings are reported, with information on migration taking place over the decade, and a short description is given on the changing age structures of the minority ethnic groups.
Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR)
Dover St Building
University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 7025
Fax: +44 (0)161 275 4722
Email: lee.williamson@stud.man.ac.uk
Religion in Scotland: quit, stick or twist?
David Voas, University of Sheffield
Important new evidence from Scotland on the relationship between religious diversity, identity, participation and disaffiliation is becoming available in 2003. Questions on religion (both current and of upbringing) were included in the most recent census, making Scotland one of the few places to have census data on this topic. In addition, results of a comprehensive church census (conducted by the Christian Research Association) will soon be released. Finally, the new Scottish Social Attitudes survey contained a special section on religion. In combination, these data will arguably make the religious situation in Scotland the best documented in Europe.
On a conservative estimates, one Scottish adult in every five raised in a religion now describes him or herself as belonging to none. By contrast, only one in twenty of such individuals say that they currently have a different religion, and it seems likely (though the hypothesis must be tested) that most of these changes are associated with marriage. The amount of personally motivated religious mobility, then, appears to be quite small both in absolute terms and relative to the incidence of complete defection.
Small-area output from the 2001 census (combined with other sources) will be used here to test different theories of religious change. To the extent that Scotland can be viewed as representative of Europe, the conclusions will be a significant pointer to what we might find elsewhere.
Department of Sociological Studies
University of Sheffield
Elmfield
Northumberland Road
Sheffield S10 2TU
Email: d.voas@shef.ac.uk