Thursday 11 September 2003, 9am, Conference Centre
The 2001 census: how was it for London?
John Hollis, Greater London Authority
When the draft London Plan (dLP) was published in June 2002, London's current population estimate was 7.375 million (mid-2000) and the plan forecast a rise to 8.149 million by 2016. The first 2001 census results published in September 2002 implied a reduced mid-2001 population of 7.188 million. The first evidence on households and the household population was published on 13 February 2003 - just 18 days before the dLP Examination in Public was due to start.
This presentation will build on last year's British Society for Population Studies (BSPS) Conference paper by Hollis and Holmans to show what the first results meant in terms of amended population projections and household forecasts for the London Plan. It will go on to look at some of the 2001 census standard tables on population and households that have been released since the Examination in Public and draw conclusions about what has been learnt about changing household formation and housing stock utilisation since 1991.
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Authority
City Hall, Queen's Walk
London SE1 2AA
Tel: +44 (0)20 7983 4604
Fax: +44 (0)20 7983 4057
Email: john.hollis@london.gov.uk
What can the 2001 samples of anonymised records (SARs) offer demographers?
Angela Dale and Mark Brown, Cathie March Centre for Census and Survey Research (CCSR), University of Manchester
The UK census has long been and remains a unique and vital source of demographic data. As well as providing 'more of the same', the 2001 census offers new opportunities for demographers. In particular, the use of a household matrix on the census schedule will considerably improve the available information on household composition and provide for much greater accuracy and detail in the identification of family relationships than was possible in previous decades. For those working on ethnic minorities, the addition of a question on religion will enable a more detailed and meaningful breakdown of the south Asian population.
While much of the new information will be incorporated in the standard census output tables, the release of SARs will provide much greater flexibility in realising the full potential of the data. For example, users will be able to derive tailor-made household and ethno-religious classifications.
The 1% Household File will record the full relationship information as well as detailed information on ethnic groups (16 categories) and religion. Increased concerns over confidentiality means that there will be reductions in the individual details available for large households compared to 1991 SARs. In particular, for households with ten or more individuals there will be no person-level records while for households of size eight and nine there will be banding of age and some reduction of detail on marital status and ethnic group. The paper will discuss strategies for overcoming this loss of information and discuss the impact this is likely to have on analysis.
CCSR
Dover St Building
University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 4735
Fax: +44 (0)161 275 4722
Email: Angela.Dale@man.ac.uk or Mark.Brown@man.ac.uk
Office for National Statistics (ONS)'s Small Area Population Estimates Project
Andy Bates, Office for National Statistics
This project is investigating which data sets and methods could be used to produce an authoritative set of small area population estimates for England and Wales.
When the small area census data is released in spring 2003, a number of administrative data sources available to the project team will be evaluated against it to establish their strengths and weaknesses. The data sets include the Department of Work and Pensions' child benefit and pensions data, electoral roll information and health authority patient registers. This analysis will take into account area characteristics to see whether the differences between the data sets can be accounted for by differences in area type.
This analysis of data sets will then feed into the development of a model for producing small area population estimates. Test estimates will be produced and evaluated against the 2001 census to establish their accuracy. A working group has been set up to help ONS consider whether the test estimates are of an acceptable level of quality.
By the time of the BSPS Conference, ONS should be in a position to present the results of the analysis of these data sets and give an indication of how they might be used to produce small area population estimates for England and Wales.
Small Area Population Estimates
Office for National Statistics
Segensworth Road
Titchfield
Fareham
Hants PO15 5RR
Tel: +44 (0)1329 813753
Email: Andrew.G.Bates@ons.gsi.gov.uk
Household classifications in the 2001 census
Rachel Leeser, Greater London Authority, Jo Wathan, University of Manchester, and Clare Holdsworth, University of Liverpool
The way of looking at households in the 2001 census has changed radically since the 1991 census, although the basic definition has remained stable. Whereas the standard 1991 classifications were based mainly on numbers of adults and children, the new relationship question for 2001 and the 100 per cent coding of this question means that a new approach is used. The household classification used for standard output is a social one, based on families. This paper will look at the changes in the standard classification between 1991 and 2001 and what comparisons are possible.
However, this standard classification is just one way of describing households. We have also produced a range of alternative household classifications that are available from the 2001 census, which users have said they would find most useful. These classifications are on the themes of demographic household type, deprivation and ethnicity. A blueprint for producing multivariate household profiles has also been developed and work on the final classification is ongoing.
The demographic household type classification follows the historical trends in producing household classifications for projections and the paper will describe its uses and limitations. The household deprivation classification aims to look at deprivation at a household level in the context of other deprivation measures available and the paper describes its derivation and purpose. The household ethnicity classifications recognise that describing a household in terms of the 'head of household's' ethnicity is inadequate for many purposes and suggest alternative ways of tackling the issue. The methods proposed for the multivariate household profiles are also discussed.
Rachel Leeser
Data Management and Analysis
Greater London Authority
City Hall
Queen's Walk
London SE1 2AA
Tel: +44 (0)20 7983 4699
Fax: +44 (0)20 7983 4057
Email: Rachel.Leeser@london.gov.uk
Jo Wathan
CCSR
Dover St Building
University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester M13 9PL
Tel: +44 (0)161 275 4735
Fax: +44 (0)161 275 4722
Email: Jo.Wathan@man.ac.uk