2002 Conference - Newcastle

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Special theme: Population, mobility and migration

University of Newcastle, 9-11 September 2002

The Society acknowledges the generous support of The Wellcome Trust and The Simon Population Trust.


On behalf of the British Society for Population Studies, I am pleased to welcome you to the 2002 Annual Conference. There are eight strands in this year's conference, as well as four plenary sessions. The special theme of the conference is 'Population, mobility and migration'.

I would like to thank all those who have helped organise the conference - in particular, all the strand organisers, and Tony Champion and Anne Shepherd of the Population Investigation Committee (PIC). The eight strands - and their organisers - are as follows:

  • Local planning and migration, organised by Roy Lewis (Essex County Council)
  • Methods, models and projections, organised by Oliver Duke-Williams (University of Leeds)
  • Reproductive health, organised by Ernestina Coast (London School of Economics)
  • Fertility, organised by Steve Smallwood (Office for National Statistics)
  • Families and households, organised by John Haskey (Office for National Statistics)
  • Mortality and health, organised by Mike Murphy (London School of Economics)
  • Ageing, organised by Karen Glaser (King's College London)
  • Historical demography, organised by Eilidh Garrett (University of Portsmouth)
  • Poster session, organised by Ann Berrington (University of Southampton)

I would like also to thank the Wellcome Trust and the Simon Population Trust for their generous financial support, which has enabled a number of students to attend the conference. The Simon Population Trust unfortunately closed last year, but has allowed us to put the remaining balance from their grant last year towards this year's conference. The Society would like to record its gratitude for their consistent support over many years. The Population Investigation Committee (PIC) have also provided - and will be providing - very valuable practical support.

Anne Shepherd of PIC will be at the registration desk not only to help conference delegates at registration, but also to answer any administrative queries delegates may have during the course of the conference.

I wish you all an enjoyable and rewarding conference.

John Haskey
President of the British Society of Population Studies (BSPS)


Monday 9 September

10:30-1pm - Registration

12:30pm - Lunch

2-3pm - Plenary 1
Fenwick Room
Michel Poulain - Catholic University of Louvain
An overview and comparison of the state of migration in EU countries: what the data reveal
(Chair: John Haskey - Office for National Statistics)

3-3:30pm - Tea

3:30-5pm - Session 1

E Percy Room - Reproductive health

(Chair: Ernestina Coast - London School of Economics)

Contraceptive use in Mongolia: Gereltuya Altankhuyag, Ian Diamond, Zoë Matthews - University of Southampton

The sexual and reproductive health of internally displaced young people in Freetown, Sierra Leone: Rachel Partridge, Pamela Greene, Roger Ingham - University of Southampton

Taking risks: predicting contraceptive use amongst sexually active American adolescents: Elizabeth Cooksey, Dawn Hurst, FrankMott - Ohio State University

Fenwick Room - Families and households

(Chair: John Haskey - Office for National Statistics)

Change and continuity in family formation among young adults in Britain: Ann Berrington - University of Southampton

Grandparenthood: its meaning and contribution to older people's lives: Lynda Clarke, Ceridwen Roberts - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)

The increase in one-person households in Britain: John I Clarke - University of Durham

Havelock Room - Historical demography

(Chair: Eilidh Garrett - University of Portsmouth)

The vaccination registers as a source for the study of infant mortality: Michael Drake, Peter Razzell - Open University

Migration and rural mortality in rural Kent, 1876-88: Ann Clark - Open University

Infant and early childhood mortality in Fenland England during the later 19th century: Samantha Sneddon - Queen Mary College

5-6pm - Plenary 2
Fenwick Room
Tim Dyson - London School of Economics
Future patterns of migration and urbanisation in India
(Chair: Heather Joshi - Centre for Longitudinal Studies)

6-7pm - Reception and poster session


Posters will be displayed throughout the conference.

The 2001 SARs for demographers: Angela Dale, Mark Brown, Ed Fieldhouse, Jo Wathan, Yaojun Li, Ruth Durrell, Margaret Martin - University of Manchester

Below-replacement and high fertility in one entity: the case of Ethiopia: Muluye Desta - University of Southampton

Early parenthood: a longitudinal study in Avon: Ann Berrington, Riccardo Borgoni, Ian Diamond, Roger Ingham, Jim Stevenson - University of Southampton; the ALSPAC Team - Institute of Child Health, University of Bristol

The Millenium Cohort wave 1: the delivery of a birth cohort: Kate Smith and the Millenium Cohort team - Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education

POPGROUP - population estimation and forecasting software: Ludi Simpson - City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

Estimating 'net' child mortality patterns due to HIV in populations with generalised epidemics: Milly Marston, Basia Zaba - Centre for Population Studies, LSHTM

Should we try to forestall Malthus in Africa - or is it already too late? Maurice King - University of Leeds

Tuesday 10 September

9:15-11:15am - Session 2

Havelock Room - Families and households

(Chair: John Haskey - Office for National Statistics)

Young fatherhood and adult social exclusion in Britain: Wendy Sigle-Rushton - London School of Economics

Life histories of lineages and key figures: first explorations of a new French survey: Eva Lelievre, Geraldine Vivier - INED

Some considerations on estimating the number of one-parent families, and tentative plans for estimating families and relationships which extend beyond household boundaries: John Haskey - Office for National Statistics

Considerations and reflections on race, residential polarisation and policy: Ludi Simpson - City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council

Fenwick Room - Methods, models and projections

(Chair: Oliver Duke-Williams - University of Leeds)

Spatial and temporal patterns of internal migration in England and Wales: S Kalogirou and AS Fotheringham - University of Newcastle

Computer simulation of cultural change and the fertility transition: David Voas - University of Sheffield

Mobile families and other challenges in the design of the Millenium Cohort study: Heather Joshi, Ian Plewis, Andy Cullis, Mahmood Sadigh, Mos Mojaddad - Centre for Longitudinal Studies; Katie Dodds, Joanne Woods, Aliy Chapman - Department of Work and Pensions

The development of neighbourhood statistics in Scotland: housing related information: Cecilia Macintyre - Scottish Executive Development Department

MGM Room - Historical demography

(Chair: Eilidh Garrett - University of Portsmouth)

Faith Street, 'that troublesome place': an examination of infant mortality in a West Yorkshire colliery village 1894-1911: Linda Davies - Open University

Environment and occupation - significant factors in infant mortality rates? Fulham, a developing London suburb, 1876-88: Sue Smith - Open University

Mortality and the metropolis: the case of the London Foundling Hospital in the 18th century: Alysa Levene - University of Cambridge

An exploration of neonatal mortality in Northamptonshire, 1880s: Tricia James - Open University

E Percy Room - Reproductive health

(Chair: Ernestina Coast - London School of Economics)

Maternal health care in south India: do adolescents seek more care than older women? Asha Kilaru, Martyn Brookes, Zoë Matthews - University of Southampton; Saraswathy Ganapathy - Belaku Trust

Organisational objectives versus local expectations: reproductive health centre in Yemen: Jane Diamond - University of Southampton

Can the use of information, education and communication promote the uptake of the intrauterine contraceptive device in rural areas of Nepal? Sally Kidsley - University of Southampton

Barriers and opportunities for improved school based sex education in Nepal: Nicole Stone, Padam Simkhada, Roger Ingham - University of Southampton

11:45am-12:45pm - Plenary 3
Fenwick Room
Tony Champion - University of Newcastle
Beyond the urban/ rural dichotomy: towards a new conceptualisation of settlement for demographers (page 26)
(Chair: Jane Falkingham - London School of Economics)

2-4pm - Session 3

MGM Room - Mortality and health

(Chair: Mike Murphy - London School of Economics)

Comparisons of cause-specific mortality rates in England and Wales using ICD-9 and ICD-10: implications for time trends: Clare Griffiths, Cleo Rooney, Lois Cook - Office for National Statistics

The migrant mortality advantage: selectivity, culture or hope? Jon Anson - Ben Gurion University of the Negev

Integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches to understand the nutrition transition in India: Paula L Griffiths - Loughborough University; Margaret E Bentley - Carolina Population Center

Havelock Room - Families and households

(Chair: Lynda Clarke - LSHTM)

Models of family formation in the north of Tunisia: endogamy, motivations and constraints: Noureddine Chalbi - Faculté des Sciences de Tunis

What does single-mother household, as applied to Russia, mean? Shireen Kanji - London School of Economics

HIV/ AIDS: changing household structures and primary school enrolment in Tanzania: Ulli Huber, Bill Gould - University of Liverpool

Fenwick Room - Ageing

(Chair: Ruth Hancock - University of Leicester)

Trends in marital age gaps among older people in Britain: evidence from cross-sectional surveys and marriage statistics: Geraldine Baker, Ruth Hancock - University of Leicester; Rachel Stuchbury - King's College London; Cecilia Tomassini - Università 'La Sapienza', Rome

Gender differences among older people in Britain and Italy in carrying out, and receiving help with, domestic and caring tasks. Are women better able than men to cope with independent living? Cecilia Tomassini - Università 'La Sapienza', Rome; Karen Glaser, Janet Askham - King's College London

Family care, employment and pension prospects: Maria Evandrou, Karen Glaser - King's College London

Gender dimensions of ageing in India: living arrangements and health issues: Usha Ram - Gokhale Institute

E Percy Room - Fertility

(Chair: Jane Falkingham - London School of Economics)

Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of central and eastern Europe: Dimiter Philipov - Max Planck Institute

Later first births and likelihood of progression to higher-order births by socio-economic correlates in England and Wales: Michael Rendall, Steve Smallwood - Office for National Statistics; Heather Joshi - Centre for Longitudinal Studies

Childless Italian women between economic constraints and value change: Massimo Livi Bacci, Letizia Mencarini, Silvana Salvini, Maria Letizia Tanturri - University of Florence

4:30-6:30pm - Session 4

E Percy Room - Reproductive health

(Chair: Ernestina Coast - London School of Economics)

Contraception use in developed countries: towards an explanatory framework: Rebecca Bentley, Anne Kavanagh, Anthony Smith - Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society

The outcomes of teenage motherhood in Europe: Richard Berthoud - Institute for Social and Economic Research

Sexual risk behaviour and perception on love, relationship and marriage among young single men in Nepal: Govinda Prasad Dahal - University of Southampton

Who are we serving? An analysis of the population served by private reproductive health centres in seven countries: Jane Diamond, Richard Mutemwa - University of Southampton

Fenwick Room - Local planning and migration

(Chair: Roy Lewis - Essex County Council)

Household projections in Scotland, a practitioner's view: Jan Freke - Glasgow City Council

Regional households and dwelling stocks: what is the current picture and what does it imply for household forecasting? John Hollis - Greater London Authority; Alan Holmans - University of Cambridge

A structural cointegrating VAR approach in examining economic effects on changing headship rate and forecasting future numbers of households in England: Alei Duan, Dave King - Anglia Polytechnic University

MGM Room - Historical demography

(Chair: Eilidh Garrett - University of Portsmouth)

The use of infant mortality as a general indicator of health: Tony Wrigley - University of Cambridge

The concentration of infant mortality within families: peerage vs parish: Jim Oeppen - University of Cambridge

The decline of mortality in the northwest of England, 1860-910: an exercise in demographic and geographic decomposition: Graham Mooney, Eilidh Garrett, Humphrey Southall - University of Portsmouth

Regional differentials in Spanish mortality at the turn of the 20th century: Diego Ramiro Fariñas - Spanish Council for Scientific Research

Wednesday 11 September

9-10am - Plenary 4
Fenwick Room
Graeme Hugo - University of Adelaide
Population movement between Australia and the United Kingdom: recent trends and issues
(Chair: Michael Rendall - Office for National Statistics)

10:30am-12:30pm - Session 5

Fenwick Room - Local planning and migration

(Chair: Roy Lewis - Essex County Council)

Population forecasts for wards in the Bradford area using the POPGROUP package: Lee Williamson - University of Manchester; Ludi Simpson - University of Manchester/ Bradford Council

Developing a simple method of migration flows forecasting as an outcome of single-region cohort survival methodology: Dave King - Anglia Polytechnic University

Migration and local housing markets: new research opportunities? Mike Coombes - CURDS, University of Newcastle

E Percy Room - Reproductive health

(Chair: Ernestina Coast - London School of Economics)

Sexual behaviour and the extent of unwanted pregnancy among young factory workers in Nepal: Mahesh Puri - University of Southampton

The development of an institutional audit into maternal mortality in Yemeni hospitals: Jane Diamond - University of Southampton; Abdullah Wali-Nashar - International Bank of Yemen; Nagiba Abdul Ghani - Ministry of Health, Yemen

In search of indicators and benchmarks of human rights and health: Subrato Kumar Mondal - National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi

Havelock Room - Fertility

(Chair: Steve Smallwood - Office for National Statistics)

Fertility rates in rural Gambia, the effects of kin? Rebecca Sear, Ruth Mace - University College London; Ian A McGregor - MRC Keneba, The Gambia

Age at first sex and first birth in South Africa: Anne Bakilana - University of Cape Town

Projections of the ethnic minority populations in Britain - first steps: David Coleman, Martin Smith - University of Oxford

National trends in ectopic pregnancies: Patrick Carroll - Pension and Population Research Institute