Abstracts - migration strand

Strand organiser: Professor Tony Champion, University of Newcastle

Abstracts are presented in the order scheduled for presentation. Please refer to the programme for timings

Ethnic group population change and neighbourhood belonging
Nissa Finney & Stephen Jivraj, University of Manchester

The community cohesion agenda in Britain has focused attention on the ethnic character of neighbourhoods and concern has been expressed about the effect of population change on neighbourhood cohesion. This paper examines the relationship between neighbourhood ethnic group population change and neighbourhood belonging. The paper measures population change as immigration, gross internal migration and with a categorisation of ethnic group population dynamics that combines migration and natural change. Pooled 2005 and 2007 Citizenship Survey data are analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. The paper does not find evidence for relationships between immigration or local population turnover and levels of neighbourhood belonging; nor is there evidence that ethnically differentiated population change matters. However, the overall population change of an area may be significant in that highest levels of belonging were found in areas of White and Minority population growth driven by migration.

Email: Dr. Stephen Jivraj: stephen.jivraj@manchester.ac.uk|

Placing Northern Ireland residential segregation in its geographical context: population patterns, residential moves, and history
Ian Shuttleworth, Queens University Belfast; Myles Gould, University of Leeds; Paul Barr, Dartmouth College

Residential segregation appears to have remained constant in Northern Ireland (NI) since 1991 despite community differentials in migration propensities and destinations that might have been expected to have led to greater segregation (Shuttleworth et al 2012). Part of the explanation for this lies in the nature of residential moves. Typically, most are short distance and they occur in a particular spatial context where there are relatively large geographical blocks of population. Everything else being equal, this means that many moves start and end in the same type of place. This presentation therefore explores how current geographical population structures limit the possibilities for radical changes in segregation levels. It does this by: (a) modelling how local population structures shape individual probabilities of moving to and from \'Catholic\' areas; and (b) describing the types of people who move far enough to remix the NI population. The analysis is set in a wider historical context to consider how population processes can sometimes rapidly \'ratchet drive\' segregation levels upwards; whilst there are other periods where migration has only a minor effect.

Email: Dr. Ian Shuttleworth: i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk|

The well-being of migrants engaged in residential migration: an uneven impact of different life domains
Allan Findlay, Beata Nowok, University of St. Andrews/ESRC Centre for Population Change

Life satisfaction and motives for migration are both complex entanglements, reflecting multiple desires and experiences. The aim of this paper is to show that a focussed analysis of satisfaction with particular domains of life can prove that residential migration is not only a life stressor but also a positive means to enduring improvements in individual satisfaction. Using the British Household Panel Survey we examine life satisfaction and satisfaction in various life domains such as housing, job, social life, household income, spouse and health, both prior to and after moving. A temporal pattern of migrants\' satisfaction for a number of years before and after the move is derived employing a fixed-effects model. Our results reveal that moving into a new house increases housing satisfaction considerably and despite some decrease over time, five years after migration housing satisfaction is still significantly higher than it was initially. The positive effect of migration on housing satisfaction is much stronger and endures longer for those with a sustained desire to move before migration. Changes in satisfaction with other life domains are much less pronounced and no lasting improvements in satisfaction are observed for them. Besides, improvements in housing conditions do not produce considerable increases in overall life satisfaction, because housing makes a small contribution to life satisfaction judgments.

Email: Dr. Beata Nowok: bn7@st-andrews.ac.uk|

Urban migration of adolescent girls in developing countries
Mark Montgomery, Poverty, Gender & Youth Program, Population Council, New York;
Deborah Balk and Zhen Liu, CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch College, New York

Internal migration plays a key role not only in the economic development of poor countries, but also in the efforts of individuals to improve their own lives. This paper focuses on an important yet under-studied group of migrants: adolescent girls. Using over 200 Demographic and Health Surveys (from the late 1980s to the present) and 76 census micro-samples (covering 32 countries, from 1960 to 2009) from the IPUMS program, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the urban moves undertaken by adolescent girls in low- and middle-income countries, comparing their migration rates with those of boys of the same age and with adults of both sexes. The percentages of urban adolescent girls who are recent migrants range as high as 40 percent (in Ethiopia), and exhibit substantial variation across countries. We present new evidence on trends over time in migration rates and examine post-migration differentials in education and living arrangements, looking for evidence of social isolation and the potential risks to which girls may be exposed. The paper is the quantitative and methodological core of Girls on the Move, a larger study of the causes and implications of migration for girls. It will inform researchers and policy-makers about the scale, patterns and outcomes of migration among adolescent girls in poor countries.

Email: Dr. Mark Montgomery: mmontgomery@popcouncil.org|

Researching left-behind children in China: The need for a multidisciplinary approach
Rosario Franco, The University of Nottingham Ningbo China

China has about 58 million of left-behind children. These are not just the product of transnational migration (e.g. China to Europe), but also (and overwhelmingly) of sub-national rural to urban migration. The latter group is produced when parents (including mothers) migrate to the richer coastal cities and come back home few times or even just once a year (e.g. on Chinese New Year). In this paper I shall report on some of the current social policies and forms of social intervention developed by Chinese civil society. These findings are the result of research I carried out while organising the 4th EU-China (Civil Society) Dialogue on \'Left-Behind Children: Problems and Solutions\', (Ningbo 20-22 February 2012), a 3-day, EU-funded workshop in which 64 academics and INGOs/ NGOs from the EU and all over China participated. In the paper I shall argue that crucial issues of gender and kinship relations, history and politics (ideology) are currently played down in the agenda of practitioners and researchers working on China, while they are indeed crucial to our understanding of the specific dynamics of the Chinese LBC phenomenon and any effective form of local social intervention. This multidisciplinary approach will be hopefully relevant for studies of LBC in other cultural contexts. Topics: Left-behind children- migration - social action - social policy

Email: Dr. Rosario Franco: rosaria.franco@nottingham.edu.cn|

Early-years migration in rural South Africa
Rachel Bennett, Victoria Hosegood, Jane Falkingham, University of Southampton

Infancy represents a stage of the life course where the circumstances of migration are poorly understood, particularly in developing country contexts. In South Africa, infants often have complex living arrangements as care responsibilities are shared between multiple family members. Low marriage rates and high levels of male and female migration have contributed to dynamic life trajectories amongst parents. This paper explores the relationships between propensity to migrate in the early years and parental circumstances and life events, wider kin networks, housing quality and household composition. Discrete time event history modelling is employed to identify factors associated with migration in the first two years of life, using data from a demographic surveillance system in rural northern KwaZulu Natal. The results indicate that 19% of children born in the surveillance area between 2005 and 2008 migrated at least once by their second birthday. However, only a minority of the children who moved (17%) were engaged in whole household migration. Household migration was most common amongst children born into small two-parent households. The majority (84%) of infants who did not migrate with all other members of their household retained social membership of their initial household. This form of migration was associated with having social ties to other households. The influence of parental circumstances varied by whether children shared household membership with both parents or their mother only at birth. The findings contribute to understanding the contexts of early years migration and are an important step in unravelling the relationships between exposure to migration and wellbeing across childhood.

Email: Rachel Bennett: Rachel.Bennett@soton.ac.uk|

You say goodbye and….so do I: trying to quantify the Italian brain drain from 2000 to 2010
Alessandro Albano, Dipartimento per lo Studio delle Società Mediterranee, Università di Bari "AldoMoro"; Antonella Biscione, Dipartimento per lo Studio delle Società Mediterranee, Università di Bari
degli studi di Salerno

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dimensions of the highly skilled migrations flows from Italy during the decade 1990-2000 in order to quantify and “qualify” the phenomenon. After a short overview of the different methods proposed by several social scientists, the decomposition method proposed by Son in 2003 will be introduced in order to quantify the change of the different migration typologies over the time. This analysis will give us the opportunity to evaluate the real weight of the brain drain on the total emigration from Italy. Data from OECD and the dataset made available by Doquier, Lowell and Marfouk (2009) will be used as main sources.

Email: Alessandro Albano: alessandro.albano83@gmail.com|

New mobilities or old? Perspectives on intra-national migration in the developed world
Tony Champion, University of Newcastle; and Ian Shuttleworth, Queen\'s University Belfast

Recent theoretical literature in the \'new mobilities paradigm\' (Sheller and Urry 2006) posits a 'world on the move'. In common with older thinking on the 'mobility transition' (Zelinsky 1971), and indeed broader perspectives on social and economic change, it assumes that advanced societies will become increasingly mobile and migratory. But what if these concepts are not fully supported empirically? On at least one dimension - that of inter-county and inter-state moves in the USA - recent evidence (Cooke 2012; Kaplan and Schulhofer-Wolf 2012) shows that mobility is declining. Explanations for this reduction include some of the same structural and technical changes that have been suggested as causes of mobility/migratory increases. The presentation explores this contradiction in two ways. Firstly, it considers evidence on migration in comparable societies to the USA to answer the question, 'Is the USA exceptional?' Structural forces should play out in similar ways in similar societies albeit with some national differences. Secondly, it considers the theoretical literature on migration and social change to suggest a research agenda on the future of migratory trends in advanced societies.

Email: Professor Tony Champion: tony.champion@ncl.ac.uk|

Introducing Acxiom's ROP data for the analysis of internal migration in Great Britain
Michael Thomas, Myles Gould, John Stillwell, University of Leeds

Spatial analysts of internal migration in Britain have typically sourced data from population censuses or administrative registers because national survey data are usually restricted by sample size. Censuses provide extensive demographic and socio-economic attributes for migrants that are reliable and comprehensive but are only decadal. Administrative sources provide inter-censal data on a continuous quarterly or annual basis but the range of attributes tends to be very limited. As part of the 'Beyond 2011' programme, national statistical agencies across Britain are currently attempting to identify and evaluate alternative sources of migration data from administrative registers and social surveys in order to establish robust methods of annual population estimation as well as methods for providing disaggregated population counts for service providers. This paper considers Acxiom's Research Opinion Poll (ROP) commercial data, hitherto unused for the analysis of internal migration in GB. It is a very large and rich national lifestyle survey collected annually for postcoded individuals (n≈750,000 p/a). The ROP contains individual level demographic and socioeconomic, as well as indicators of area satisfaction. It is large enough to analyse/model \'movers\' and 'stayers' and determine geographical patterns of residential mobility at relatively detailed spatial scales. Before presenting some preliminary empirical results of characteristics and patterns, the paper will outline some data quality issues and report an initial validation exercise involving comparison of the ROP data with census, administrative and/or survey data from alternative sources. Finally, the paper will outline potential modelling framework(s) for further analysis of this rich data set.

Email: Dr. Myles Gould: m.i.gould@leeds.ac.uk|

Distributing short-term in-migrants to Local Authority level using administrative sources
Jennifer Farnall, Helena Rosiecka, Simon Whitworth, Ian McGregor, Office for National Statistics

Following on from the work on distributing long-term migrants to Local Authority level (presented to YSM 2011) the Improving Migration and Population Statistics team at the Office for National Statistics has developed a methodology for distributing short-term in migrants to Local Authority level.  This data is important to Local Authorities as, although short-term migrants are not considered part of the normally resident population, they do consume resources and use services such as public transport and thus this usage has to be planned for. The methodology distributes those the UN define as short-term migrants (3-12 month stays for the purpose of work or study) in England and Wales to Local Authorities using a range of administrative sources.  This total is estimated using International Passenger Survey (IPS) data, subset using reason for visit and length of stay, then distributed using a range of administrative sources which have recently become available to the ONS via cross-governmental data sharing arrangements.  For example EU \'workers\' are distributed using data on National Insurance Number registrations and Higher Education students are distributed using the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) Student Record.  Other sources include Learner Records for Further Education students and Home Office data on visa applicants and sponsorship forms for some non-EU migrants. This approach combines the use of the IPS with administrative data sources that provide greater richness for small areas. The detailed methodology and LA level estimates were published on the ONS website on 23rd February 2012. This paper provides a high level outline of the methodology, highlights some of the complexities with the proposed method, and provides an overview of the results.

Email: Jennifer Farnall: jennifer.farnall@ons.gsi.gov.uk|

Using administrative data to set plausibility ranges for population estimates in England and Wales
Ann Blake, Alistair Dent, Sofie de Broe, Melissa Randall,  Office for National Statistics

ONS has produced plausibility ranges for local authority mid-year population estimates for children in England and Wales.  The aim was to take the available administrative sources, explore the quality of these and the relationships between them to identify ways in which they could be combined to give upper and lower limits within which the estimates could reasonably be expected to fall.
Several data sources have been explored, and two different techniques for producing the ranges developed.  The techniques use methods that combine aggregate or record level data, demonstrating alternatives that may be adapted for other sources in different age groups in the future.  These will be presented, along with the results of comparisons with the indicative mid-year estimates.
The ways in which the research has contributed to 2011 Census QA and population rebasing will also be presented.

Email: Ann Blake: ann.blake@ons.gsi.gov.uk|

Quality indicators for local authority mid-year population estimates
Paola Serafino, Sue Dalton, Enliz V'souza, Office for National Statistics

The Uncertainty Project was established as part of the Migration Statistics Improvement Programme to meet the need for more detailed information on the quality of the local authority mid-year population estimates. This paper presents the results from the Quality Indicators work stream; this focused on producing a table of indicators enabling comparison between local authorities in terms of the risk of uncertainty in the mid-year population estimates. The first stage involved using previous research and the literature to identify as many potential sources of error in the estimation process as possible, using this to identify a wide-ranging pool of possible indicators. This initial pool consisted of 27 indicators. This was then refined to a shortlist of key indicators. A panel of methodologists and demographers were consulted to develop a list of criteria that the key indicators should meet. This enabled several of the initial indicators to be removed. Principal components analysis, correlation and sensitivity analysis were used to further refine the list to give a final shortlist of six key indicators. Based on the proportion of these indicators within the local authority area, a table was generated. The table shows the ranking of local authorities in England and Wales in terms of the percentage range (0-2%; 2-5%; etc.) for each indicator. The table of Quality Indicators for 2010 was published in March 2012.

Email: paola.serafino@ons.gsi.gov.uk|