Strand organiser: Steve Smallwood, Office for National Statistics.
Ekisa L. Anyara and Andrew Hinde
School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton
Kenya's total fertility of 7.9 children in 1979 has declined to a current level of 4.7. The decline has taken place in both less and more developed regions and socio-economic groups and has occurred with a rapidity many did not anticipate. The explanations so far advanced of this phenomenon are neither clear nor conclusive. Among the salient unaccounted for features of the decline are the marked regional differentials and the large declines in some regions with low contraceptive use. Previous studies (NAS 1993, Brass and Jolly 1993, APPRC 1998, Macrae et al. 2001) were limited to the use of data collected until 1993 and did not seek for clues which might explain the regional fertility differences. This paper presents some preliminary results which demonstrate the extent of regional variation in fertility in Kenya, using individual-level Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected in 1989, 1993, 1998 and 2003, consistent regional boundaries across all surveys, and exact exposure to estimate fertility rates. The potential role of the proximate determinants of fertility in explaining the regional patterns, in view of recent work on the calculation of Bongaarts's indices of the proximate determinants in an African context is examined.
The African Population and Policy Research Center (APPRC) (1998) Fertility Decline in Kenya: Level, Trends and Differentials, Nairobi, Population Council, African Population and Policy Research Center.
S.M Macrae, E. K Bauni, J.G.C Blacker (2001) "Fertility trends and population policy in Kenya" In Basia Zaba and John Blacker (eds) Brass Tacks: Essays in Medical Demography: A tribute to the memory of Prof William Brass London, The Athlone Press
Brass W, Jolly C.L. (eds) (1993) Population Dynamics of Kenya Washington DC National Academy Press.
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1993) Demographic effects of Economic Reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa, Washington DC, and National Academy Press.
Dr Andrew Hinde and Ekisa L. Anyara, Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences,
University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ
E-mail: email@example.com & firstname.lastname@example.org
Tel + 44 (0)2380 593419 (Dr Hinde)
Historical demography in Tanzania (1920-1961) using census data
Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, University of Cambridge
There is little empirical evidence for pre-1950 demographic trends in sub-Saharan Africa. Since the 1970s attention has shifted away from the colonial period, focusing instead on current population concerns. This paper suggests that with improved techniques and an accumulation of datasets demographers may now be in a better position to quantify historical demographic trends. A series of censuses and demographic surveys from Tanzania (1948-1999) was used to model trends in fertility and child mortality during the period of British rule (1920-1961). The completed family size of birth cohorts of women was compared across the datasets. Where women had not yet finished childbearing this was projected using the Gompertz relational model, correcting for reference period error in the reporting of current fertility on the basis of parity information. The trend in the shape and level parameters of the fertility distribution and a stable population model of the age-distribution were used to estimate the numbers of children born to women in 1948 and 1957. Adjusted indirect techniques of estimation were applied to reconstruct the past trend in child mortality. The study found that fertility was rising from the 1940s to the 1970s. Child mortality was level from the 1920s until the late-1940s, when it began a steady decline. The mounting evidence of a 'pre-decline' rise in fertility across sub-Saharan Africa needs to be acknowledged and explored in any future 're-statements' of demographic transition.
Sarah Walters, PhD student, Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure
Contact address: 873 King's College, Cambridge CB2 1ST
Tel. 01223 766570
Email: email@example.com /firstname.lastname@example.org
Fertility variations in Scotland 1981-2001: are there local cultures of fertility?
Paul Boyle, Elspeth Graham and Zhiqiang Feng
University of St Andrews
Scotland's population is projected to decline by 17 percent over the next half century and is ageing more rapidly compared to populations elsewhere in the UK. Current estimates suggest that there will be a quarter of a million fewer working-age people in Scotland by 2027. Since net migration has fluctuated around zero over the last decade, low fertility (TFR of 1.48 in 2002) is the main driver of this decline. To date, there have been few studies of low fertility in Scotland and none that provide a detailed picture of fertility variations within the country.
This paper uses vital registration and census data to investigate the hypothesis that there are local cultures of fertility in Scotland. It models geographical variations in fertility over three time periods. In particular, we are interested in whether there are significant spatial clusters of relatively high or low fertility, and whether these endure over time. We find, on the one hand, that low and declining fertility is remarkably consistent across certain population groups. On the other hand, the number of births in the population shows significant geographical variation even when local age structures and socio-economic circumstances are taken into account. We argue that a local perspective on fertility can provide helpful insights into possible influences on fertility that vary spatially but that population sorting must be taken into account before firm conclusions can be drawn about the existence of local fertility cultures.
Professor Paul Boyle, School of Geography & Geosciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9AL, Scotland Tel: +44 (0) 1334 462397 (St Andrews) Tel: +44 (0) 1382 348662 (Dundee)
Fax: +44 (0) 1334 463949
Tak Wing Chan and Brendan Halpin University of Oxford and University of Limerick
We examine the stability of divorce determinants in the UK between 1960 and 1989. Using retrospective marriage history data, we show that the effects on divorce rate of educational attainment, premarital cohabitation, and spouse's previous marital status have all undergone significant changes. This is in sharp contrast to results recently reported for the US (Teachman, 2002). We also confirm an unexpected finding of Böheim and Ermisch (2001) and Chan and Halpin (2002): that in the UK children are now associated with higher divorce risks. The destabilising effect of children, we further show, is partly related to premarital birth.
Teachman, J. D. (2002). Stability across cohorts in divorce risk factors. Demography, 39(2), 331-351.
Böheim, R. and Ermisch, J. (2001). Partnership dissolution in the UK the role of economic circumstances. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 63(2), 197-208.
Chan, T.W. and Halpin, B. (2002). Union disruption in the United Kingdom. International Journal of Sociology, 32(4), 76-93.
Dr Tak Wing Chan, University Lecturer in Sociology, Fellow of New College, Department of Sociology,
University of Oxford, Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ.
Dr Brendan Halpin, Department of Sociology, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland
Fax : +353-61-202569
Email : email@example.com
Antonella Pinnelli, Francesca Fiori, Anna Maria Testini
Department of Demographic Sciences, University of Rome La Sapienza
One of the major demographic change investing Europe since the Seventies has been the increase in the proportion of women and men living together as a couple without formalising their union with the marriage. Whether we consider such unions as a real alternative to marriage or merely as a trial period, prelude of a formalised union, informal cohabitations are often associated to changes in the status of women and to their gained independence. They seem to be an option particularly attractive for people sharing more liberal and gender-egalitarian attitudes. Many studies demonstrated that those who choose to cohabit are, on average, more liberal, less religious and more favourable to more egalitarian relations and to less traditional family roles. On the basis of data from the ECHP, which allow the utilisation of the couple as the unit of analysis, we look for an empirical evidence of these theories with special reference to the European countries.
The work to be presented will compare the two typologies of union - consensual unions vs. marriages - according to various characteristics describing the gender contract into force within the couple. We hypothesise that consensual unions are characterised by less asymmetrical gender roles. The comparison is carried out for the 2001 wave, by means of logistic regressions. We will present results from the fitting of various models: first of all Model Europe, to provide a general overview, then the models fitted separately for Northern Europe, Southern Europe and Continental Europe, following clustering according to typologies of gender system and used in previous studies of Pinnelli and Di Giulio (2003). Finally, two models will provide a special focus on Italy and Great Britain. We will conclude with ideas for better exploitation of the longitudinal panel for the study of the transition from cohabitation to marriage.
Antonella Pinnelli, Full Professor, Department of Demographic Sciences, University of Rome La Sapienza, Via Nomentana 41, 00169 Roma. Tel +390649919527 firstname.lastname@example.org . Francesca Fiori, Ph.D Student in Demography, Department of Demographic Sciences, University of Rome La Sapienza, Via Nomentana 41, 00169 Roma. Tel +390649919511. email@example.com .Anna Maria Testini, Department of Demographic Sciences, University of Rome La Sapienza, Via Nomentana 41, 00169 Roma. firstname.lastname@example.org
Recent literature shows the puzzling result of a positive and significant cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate (TFR) and the female labour force participation rate (FLP) between Western European countries. The present study shows that this result survives an adjustment of the TFR for tempo distortions (arising from increasing age of childbearing), proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney. In addition, it is shown that this cross-country correlation becomes negative and significant, once one controls in cross-country regressions for childcare use outside the home and female long-term unemployment.
Countries that have a low FLP have also low childcare use outside the home and high female long-term unemployment. For this reason, failure to control for these variables leads to an omission bias of the coefficient of the FLP, because the FLP picks up some of the effects of the omitted variables. Furthermore, the sum of the contributions of childcare use outside the home and female long-term unemployment to cross-country differences in the TFR exceeds the contribution of the FLP. This explains why failure to control for these variables even changes the sign of the cross-country correlation between the TFR and the FLP. The results of this study survive when the FLP is treated as an endogenous variable.
Moreover, the present study shows that 74 percent of the cross-country differences in childcare use outside the home can be explained with differences in attitudes towards childcare outside the home. However, it is shown that nevertheless availability of childcare services contributes to cross-country differences in fertility.
Tomas Kögel, Lecturer, Department of Economics, Loughborough University,
Loughborough , Leicestershire LE11 3TU
Denise Hawkes and Heather Joshi*
Institute of Education
While the age at motherhood has generally been delayed in the UK, along with other European Countries, the minority who still enter motherhood as teenagers is high by international standards and is concentrated within the socially disadvantaged. This paper focuses on the circumstances leading to this phenomenon rather than its consequences. In particular we ask whether trends in the youth labour market have left traces in the differentially delayed patterns of childbearing across social groups. We use data on the age at first birth of some 18,000 women who gave birth to members of the UK Millennium Cohort Study, whose first births are spread between 1970 and 2001, and whose own births occurred from the 1950s to the mid 1980s. Using an event history framework, we shall consider evidence which may predict the transition to motherhood of the mother's of the cohort, including family break-up in the previous generation, education, ethnic group & country of birth. Education will be treated both as a fixed and a time-varying covariate. In addition, exposure to differential labour market circumstances in the late teenage years will be investigated by dummy variables for the women's birth cohort and by time varying covariates. The objective is to contribute to the explanation of Britain's high teenage motherhood rates and to better understand the circumstances which lead families into this often disadvantageous state.
Denise Hawkes and Heather Joshi*
Centre for Longitudinal Research, Institute of Education, University of London
20 Bedford Way, London, WC1H OAL, UK
* author for correspondence: email@example.com
Adele Menniti* and Maura Misiti*
Institute for Population Research & Social Policies, Rome
Since 1998, the Institute for Population Research and Social Policies have conducted a series of surveys on fertility. The study gathers information on a number of aspects characterising reproductive behaviour, including fertility intentions, preferred timing for having the first child and the total number of desired children. Each year, a survey on a sample of Italian women and a panel survey on the sample interviewed 2 years before are carried out. In each survey the respondents are a representative sample of the Italian female population living with a partner and aged between 20 and 39; the size of the sample is 1,500. Around 900-950 women are interviewed for the panel sample.
The analysis to be presented is based on data from the last two waves of the study and the subsequent re-interviews. Comparing the information collected during the waves and the panel surveys, the paper will firstly examine the stability over time of fertility preferences concerning the desired number of children and the preferred age at first motherhood; secondly, the paper will analyse the coherence between the fertility intentions and the fertility behaviour of the women interviewed. In accordance with what emerged in literature, our study will show that in the reproductive field the coherence between expectations and behaviour varies according to the intention previously stated: the majority of the women who did not want children behaved coherently with the intentions expressed, while coherence was lower in the group that wanted children.
* Institute for Population Research and Social Policies, Via Nizza, 128 - Rome (Italy)
Adele Menniti: firstname.lastname@example.org
Maura Misiti: email@example.com
Office for National Statistics
This presentation will examine some current trends and issues in British fertility in the context of the work of the Fertility Analysis Unit at ONS.
The last two years have seen rises in the number of births and the total fertility rate (TFR) in England and Wales. These rises follow on from the record low TFR for England and Wales of 1.63 children per woman in 2001. This paper presents some analysis of this recent increase in fertility looking at variables such as age, parity and geography. It also looks at these increases by registration type, country of birth of parents and socio-economic classification of father.
The paper will then discuss the work of the Fertility Analysis Unit focusing particularly on some initial ideas and analysis on two current issues in fertility the Unit will be examining. The first is the relationship between fertility and migration. Studies in other countries (for example France, Norway and America) have shown that, controlling for age, women have low fertility before migration and then show higher fertility than average. This paper examines the current literature on this relationship and looks at initial scoping work on the possibility of using the General Household Survey to analyse whether this trend is true for England and Wales. Secondly this paper looks at the preliminary thoughts on calculating and analysing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales. Any ideas and comments regarding the development of both of these projects are welcomed.
Jessica Chamberlain, Fertility Analysis Unit, Office for National Statistics
Room B602, 1 Drummond Gate, London SW1V 2QQ
Tel: 020 7533 5137