Dr G Montibeller, NAB3.16

Compulsory for MSc Management Science (Decision Sciences) and an optional course for MSc Management Science (Operational Research) students. The course is available as an outside option where regulations permit.

OR434 Principles of Decision Sciences

This half unit course extends the concept of 'decision capability', that is the ability of people to make judgments and decisions, and shows how that ability can be enhanced with appropriate modelling and analysis. Based on rigorous concepts of normative, descriptive and prescriptive decision-making research, the course has an emphasis on the practice of decision sciences. It uses illustrations of real-world Decision Analysis applications in organisations, and employs several case-studies (supported by specialised decision software) to build students' skills in decision modelling and analysis.

It covers modelling and supporting decisions involving multiple stakeholders and conflicting objectives (multi-criteria evaluation and resource allocation problems) as well as uncertainty (decision trees, influence diagrams, risk analysis and Bayesian belief networks).

One three-hour seminar each week in the LT. Seminars are conducted differently each week, and involve a mixture of lectures, discussions, exercises and projects. One revision session in week 11 of LT.

Four problem sets will be assigned over the course of the term.

J. Baron, Thinking and Deciding (3rd Ed.); R. Hastie & R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World; W. Edwards & D. von Winterfeldt, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research; P. Goodman & G. Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (3rd Ed.); R.T. Clemen and T. Reilly, Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite. W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, D.v. Winterfeld (Eds.) Advances in Decision Analysis.

A two hour examination in the ST (100%).