ST304      Half Unit
Time Series and Forecasting

This information is for the 2018/19 session.

Teacher responsible

Dr Matteo Barigozzi COL.7.11


This course is compulsory on the BSc in Statistics with Finance. This course is available on the BSc in Actuarial Science, BSc in Business Mathematics and Statistics, BSc in Mathematics with Economics and BSc in Mathematics, Statistics, and Business. This course is available as an outside option to students on other programmes where regulations permit and to General Course students.


2nd year statistics and probability

Course content

The course introduces the student to the statistical analysis of time series data and simple models. What time series analysis can be useful for; autocorrelation; stationarity, trend removal and seasonal adjustment, basic time series models; AR, MA, ARMA; invertibility; spectral analysis; estimation; forecasting; introduction to financial time series and the GARCH models; unit root processes. 


20 hours of lectures and 10 hours of seminars in the LT.

There will be a reading week in week 6. 

Formative coursework

Written answers to set problems will be expected on a weekly basis.

Indicative reading

Brockwell & Davis, Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting; Brockwell & Davis, Time Series: Theory and Methods.

C Chatfield, The Analysis of Time Series.


Exam (100%, duration: 2 hours) in the summer exam period.

Student performance results

(2015/16 - 2017/18 combined)

Classification % of students
First 26.8
2:1 21.9
2:2 19.6
Third 19
Fail 12.7

Key facts

Department: Statistics

Total students 2017/18: 123

Average class size 2017/18: 41

Capped 2017/18: No

Lecture capture used 2017/18: Yes (LT)

Value: Half Unit

Guidelines for interpreting course guide information

PDAM skills

  • Problem solving
  • Application of information skills
  • Communication
  • Application of numeracy skills
  • Commercial awareness
  • Specialist skills