ESRC-COMPLEXITY SEMINAR SERIES
SEMINAR 1: COMPLEXITY & POLICY: THE GLOBAL GOVERNANCE OF NEW HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES
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SESSION 3: PREDICTING COMPLEX FUTURES: THE ROLE OF REGULATION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
JOYCE TAIT
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ABSTRACT:
The Innogen Centre was asked to write a scenario report for the OECD International Futures Programme on the future trajectory of the health-related bio-economy and the societal, economic and policy precursors for these projected outcomes from 2015 to 2030. Our starting premise was that the current innovation system in the pharmaceutical industry is fundamentally unsustainable, although it still dominates health care systems in developed countries, at least from the perspective of potential impacts of biotechnology. The scope and inventiveness of innovation in life sciences, across the board, have been constrained by the expensive and lengthy regulatory systems that act as a barrier to entry for small companies that could challenge the industry status quo. Radical change in regulatory systems is a necessary precursor for the emergence of a more innovative health care sector. This paper will briefly outline the implications of a ‘no change’ scenario and describe the pre-conditions needed to lead to a ‘radical change’ scenario. The latter would require regulatory agencies to collaborate, as an integral component of the innovation system, in the proactive development of new, smarter regulatory approaches to the generation of benefits based on fundamental discoveries in life sciences.