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Leonard Smith - Weather

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Resources related to the case study:

About the author, department and centre

Personal webpage:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Whos%20Who/Lenny%20Home%20Page.aspx

Statistics Department:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/statistics/home.aspx

Centre for the Analysis of Time Series:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/CATS/Home.aspx

Relevant research

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory, Monthly Weather Review 130 6: 1653. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16906/

MS Roulston, DT Kaplan, J Hardenberg & LA Smith (2003) Using Medium Range Weather Forecasts to Improve the Value of Wind Energy Production, Renewable Energy 29 (4) April 585.http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16909/

MS Roulston, J Ellepola & LA Smith (2005) Forecasting Wave Height Probabilities with Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Ocean Engineering 32 (14-15), 1841. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/16926/

J Bröcker & LA Smith (2007) Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2), 382. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/22219/

J Bröcker & LA Smith (2008) From Ensemble Forecasts to Predictive Distribution Functions Tellus A 60(4): 663. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/22220/

R Hagedorn & LA Smith (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorological Applications 16 (2): 143. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24790/

Evidence of impact

Example of ECMWF training involving weather roulette: http://old.ecmwf.int/newsevents/training/meteorological_presentations/2013/PR2013/Leutbecher/handout2.pdf

UK Met Office 3-month outlook (as example of impact): http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

 

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