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Leonard Smith - Climate Change

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About the author, department and centre

Personal webpage:

Statistics Department:

Centre for the Analysis of Time Series:

Relevant research

K Judd & LA Smith (2004) Indistinguishable States II: The Imperfect Model Scenario. Physica D 196: 224-242.

LA Smith, (2002) What Might We Learn from Climate Forecasts? Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 4 (99): 2487-2492.

DA Stainforth, et al (2005) Uncertainty in the Predictions of the Climate Response to Rising Levels of Greenhouse Gases Nature 433 (7024): 403-406.

DA Stainforth, MR Allen, ER Tredger & LA Smith (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161.

Evidence of impact

Impact on public policy and services: Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). 2007. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Professor Leonard Smith quoted in analysis by Pallab Ghosh, BBC News, 18 June 2009.

Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. (2010) Adapting Institutions to Climate Change, Twenty-eighth report. David Stainforth is acknowledged in the report as a key contributor.

HMT. (2010) The Stern Review.

International reach: Harvard Climate Extremes Report (Baker Committee Report for the CIA, 2011-2013)

Are climate scientists overselling their models? New Scientist, 4 December 2008.

Other sources

Additional sources of evidence can be found at:,%20Media%20and%20Outreach.aspx

Video and audio

Leonard Smith and Erica Thompson contributed to the making of the BBC broadcast called 'Climate Change by Numbers' - see

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