Smith, Leonard A

Hazeleger, W. and van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. and Min, E. and van Oldenborgh, G.J. and Petersen, A.C. and Stainforth, D. A. and Vasileiadou, E. and Smith, L. A. (2015) Tales of future weather Nature Climate Change, 5 (2). 107-113. ISSN 1758-678X

Smith, Leonard A. and Suckling, Emma B. and Thompson, Erica L. and Maynard, Trevor and Du, Hailiang (2015) Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation Climatic Change, 132 (1). 31-45. ISSN 0165-0009

Smith, Leonard A. and Du, Hailiang and Suckling, Emma B. and Niehörster, Falk (2015) Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (689). 1085-1100. ISSN 0035-9009

Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Model error and ensemble forecasting: a cautionary tale In: Guo, Guichun C. and Liu, Chuang, (eds.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science: Selected Papers from the International Conference on SEMS 2012 Shanxi University, Taiyuan, China, 17–19 September 2012. World Scientific, Singapore, 58-68. ISBN 978-9814596633

Thompson, Erica and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) The hawkmoth effect. In: LSE Research Festival 2014, 8 May 2014, The London School of Economics, London, UK

Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Laplace's demon and the adventures of his apprentices Philosophy of Science, 81 (1). 31-59. ISSN 0031-8248

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part I: the perfect model scenario Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). 469-482. ISSN 0022-4928

Lopez, Ana and Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support Climatic Change, 122 (4). 555-566. ISSN 0165-0009

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2014) Pseudo-orbit data assimilation. part II: the perfect model scenario Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71 (2). 483-495. ISSN 0022-4928

Glendinning, Paul and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Lacunarity and period-doubling Dynamical Systems. 1-11. ISSN 1468-9367

Frigg, Roman and Smith, Leonard A. and Stainforth, David A. (2013) The myopia of imperfect climate models: the case of UKCP09 Philosophy of Science, 80 (5). 886-897. ISSN 0031-8248

Gibbs, Peter and Hanlon, Michael and Hardaker, Paul and Hawkins, Ed and MacDonald, Averil and Maskell, Kathy and Mayfield, Heather and Mclean, Angela and Morris, Elizabeth and Mylne, Ken and Naylor, Mark and Palmer, Tim and Rawlins, Michael and Royse, Katherine and Smith, Leonard and So, Emily and Spiegelhalter, David and Stainforth, David A. and Stewart, Ian and Tyler, Chris and de Vocht, Frank and Brown, Tracey and Innocent, Tabitha (2013) Making sense of uncertainty: why uncertainty is part of science Sense About Science, London.

Frigg, Roman and Bradley, Seamus and Machete, Reason L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill In: Andersen, Hanne and Dieks, Dennis and Gonzalez, Wenceslao and Ubel, Thomas and Wheeler, Gregory, (eds.) New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. The philosophy of science in a European perspective (4). Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 479-492. ISBN 9789400758445

Suckling, Emma B. and Smith, Leonard A. (2013) An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models Journal of Climate, 26 (23). 9334-9347. ISSN 0894-8755

Beven, Keith and Buytaert, Wouter and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) On virtual observatories and modelled realities (or why discharge must be treated as a virtual variable) Hydrological Processes, 26 (12). 1905-1908. ISSN 0885-6087

Du, Hailiang and Smith, Leonard A. (2012) Parameter estimation through ignorance Physical Review E, 86 (1). 016213. ISSN 1539-3755

Rowlands, Daniel J. and Frame, David J. and Ackerley, Duncan and Aina, Tolu and Booth, Ben B. B. and Christensen, Carl and Collins, Matthew and Faull, Nicholas and Forest, Chris E. and Grandey, Benjamin S. and Gryspeerdt, Edward and Highwood, Eleanor J. and Ingram, William J. and Knight, Sylvia and Lopez, Ana and Massey, Neil and McNamara, Frances and Meinshausen, Nicolai and Piani, Claudio and Rosier, Suzanne M. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Stone, Dáithí A. and Thurston, Milo and Yamazaki, Kuniko and Hiro Yamazaki, Y. and Allen, Myles R. (2012) Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble Nature Geoscience, 5 (4). 256-260. ISSN 1752-0894

Khare, Shree and Smith, Leonard A. (2011) Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation using indistinguishable states Monthly Weather Review, 139 (7). 2080-2097. ISSN 0027-0644

Smith, Leonard A. and Stern, Nicholas (2011) Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1956). 4818-4841. ISSN 1364-503X

Oreskes, Naomi and Stainforth, David A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2010) Adaptation to global warming: do climate models tell us what we need to know? Philosophy of Science (Proceedings), 77 (5). 1012-1028. ISSN 0031-8248

Smith, Leonard A. and Cuellar, Milena C. and Du, Hailiang and Judd, Kevin (2010) Exploiting dynamical coherence: A geometric approach to parameter estimation in nonlinear models Physics Letters A, 374 (26). 2618-2623. ISSN 0375-9601

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2008) From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 60 (4). 663-678. ISSN 0280-6495

Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Chaos: a very short introduction Very short introductions, 159. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. ISBN 0192853783

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams Weather and Forecasting, 22 (3). 651-661. ISSN 0882-8156

Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Scoring probabilistic forecasts: the importance of being proper Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2). 382-388. ISSN 0882-8156

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth?: using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626). 1309-1325. ISSN 0035-9009

Stainforth, David A. and Allen, M. R. and Tredger, Edward and Smith, Leonard A. (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365 (1857). 2145-2161. ISSN 1364-503X

Guerrero, Alexandra and Smith, Leonard A. (2005) A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 355 (2-4). 619-632. ISSN 0378-4371

Stainforth, David A. and Aina, T. and Christensen, C. and Collins, M. and Faull, N. and Frame, D. J. and Kettleborough, J. A. and Knight, S. and Martin, A. and Murphy, J. M. and Piani, C. and Sexton, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Spicer, R. A. and Thorpe, A. J. and Allen, M. R. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases Nature, 433 (7024). 403-406. ISSN 0028-0836

Weisheimer, Antje and Smith, Leonard A. and Judd, Kevin (2005) A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble seasonal forecasts Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 57 (3). 265-279. ISSN 0280-6495

Kwasniok, Frank and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Real-time construction of optimized predictions from data streams Physical Review Letters, 92 (16). 116-120. ISSN 0031-9007

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) The boy who cried wolf revisited: the impact of false alarm intolerance on cost-loss scenarios Weather and Forecasting, 19 (2). 391-397. ISSN 0882-8156

Smith, Leonard A. and Hansen, James A. (2004) Extending the limits of ensemble forecast verification with the minimum spanning tree Monthly Weather Review, 132 (6). 1522-1528. ISSN 0027-0644

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. and Weisheimer, Antje (2004) Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative informations Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 190 (3-4). 153-166. ISSN 0167-2789

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789

Kilminster, Devin and Clark, Liam and Roulston , Mark and Ziehmann , Christine and Bröcker, Jochen and Smith, Leonard (2004) From MOS to eMOS: generalising model output statistics for full ensemble forecasts Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.

Golobic, I. and Pavlovic, E. and von Hardenberg, J. and Berry, M. and Nelson, R.A. and Kenning, D.B.R. and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (4). 435-444. ISSN 0263-8762

von Hardenberg, Jost and Kenning, David B. R. and Xing, Huijuan and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2). 298-304. ISSN 0142-727X

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2004) Indistinguishable states II: the imperfect model scenario Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 196 (3-4). 224-242. ISSN 0167-2789

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, Lionel (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant? Nature Medicine, 9 (3). 241-242. ISSN 1078-8956

Orrell, David and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: the spectral bifurcation diagram International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 13 (10). 3015-3027. ISSN 0218-1274

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability and chaos In: Holton, James R. and Pyle, John and Curry, Judith A., (eds.) Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, Amsterdam, London, 1777-1785. ISBN 9780122270901

McSharry, P.E. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2003) Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (5). 628-633. ISSN 0018-9294

Roulston, M.S. and Kaplan, D.T. and Hardenberg, J. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production Renewable Energy, 28 (4). 585-602. ISSN 0960-1481

McSharry, P. E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 50 (3). 289-294. ISSN 0018-9294

Roulston, M.S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Combining dynamical and statistical ensembles Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 55 (1). 16-30. ISSN 0280-6495

Smith, Leonard A. (2003) Predictability past predictability present. In: ECMWF Seminar on Predictability, 2002, Reading, UK

McSharry, Patrick E. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Consistent nonlinear dynamics: identifying model inadequacy Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 192 (1-2). 1-22. ISSN 0167-2789

Roulston, Mark S. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory Monthly Weather Review, 130 (6). 1653-1660. ISSN 0027-0644

McSharry, P. E. and He, T. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings Medical and Biological Engineering and Computing, 40 (4). 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

Smith, Leonard A. (2002) What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 99 (Suppl.). 2487-2492. ISSN 0027-8424

McSharry, Patrick E. and Ellepola, Jerome H. and von Hardenberg, Jost and Smith, Leonard A. and Kenning, David B. R. and Judd, Kevin (2002) Spatio-temporal analysis of nucleate pool boiling: identification of nucleation sites using non-orthogonal empirical functions International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 45 (2). 237-253. ISSN 0017-9310

McSharry, Patrick E. and He, T. and Smith, Leonard A. and Tarassenko, L. (2002) Linear and non-linear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4). 447-461. ISSN 0140-0118

McSharry, Patrick E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) A method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours Computers in Cardiology, 29. 225-228. ISSN 0276-6574

McSharry, P.E. and Clifford, G. D. and Tarassenko, L. and Smith, Leonard A. (2002) Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours. In: Computers in Cardiology , 22-25 Sept. 2002 , Memphis, USA

Roulston, Mark S and Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) A forecast reliability index from ensembles: a comparison of methods London School of Economics and Political Science, London.

Judd, Kevin and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Indistinguishable states I: perfect model scenario Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 151 (2-4). 125-141. ISSN 0167-2789

Orrell, D. and Smith, Leonard A. and Barkmeijer, J. and Palmer, T. N. (2001) Model error in weather forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8 (6). 357-371. ISSN 1023-5809

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2001) Probabilistic noise reduction Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 53 (5). 585-598. ISSN 0280-6495

Smith, Leonard A. and Roulston, Mark S and von Hardenberg, Jost (2001) End to end ensemble forecasting: towards evaluating the economic value of an ensemble prediction system Technical memorandum, 336. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

Gilmour, Isla and Smith, Leonard A. and Buizza, Roberto (2001) Linear regime duration: is 24 hours a long time in synoptic weather forecasting? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58 (22). 3525-3539. ISSN 0022-4928

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Rough survey of how ticks all add up Times Higher Education (26 May 2000)

Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (2000) Localized Lyapunov exponents and the prediction of predictability Physics Letters A, 271 (4). 237-251. ISSN 0375-9601

Smith, Leonard A. (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100. In: Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, 01 Oct - 04 Oct 2000, Lake Louise, Alta. , Canada

Hansen, James A. and Smith, Leonard A. (2000) The role of operational constraints in selecting supplementary observations Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57 (17). 2859-2871. ISSN 0022-4928

Ziehmann, Christine and Smith, Leonard A. and Kurths, Jürgen (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 126 (1-2). 49-59. ISSN 0167-2789

Smith, Leonard A. and Ziehmann, C. and Fraedrich, K. (1999) Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 125 (560). 2855-2886. ISSN 0035-9009

Smith, Leonard A. and Gilmour, Isla (1998) Enlightenment in shadows In: Kadtke, James B and Bulsara, Adi, (eds.) Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Systems Near the Millennium. AIP Conference Proceedings (411). American Institute of Physics, New York, United States, 335-340. ISBN 9781563967368

Moroz, Irene M. and Smith, Leonard A. and Hide, Raymond (1998) Synchronized chaos in coupled double disk homopolar dynamos International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 8 (11). 2125-2133. ISSN 0218-1274

Smith, Leonard A. (1997) The maintenance of uncertainty

Allen, Myles R. and Smith, Leonard A. (1997) Optimal filtering in singular spectrum analysis Physics Letters A, 234 (6). 419-428. ISSN 0375-9601

Paparella, F. and Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Taricco, C. and Vio, R. (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes Physics Letters A, 235 (3). 233-240. ISSN 0375-9601

Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, C. and Fraedrich, K. and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeitsexperiment im Lorenz-Modell Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 4 (1). 16-21. ISSN 0941-2948

Theiler, James and Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates Physical Review E, 51 (4). 3738-3741. ISSN 1539-3755

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Accountability and error in ensemble prediction of baroclinic flows In: Seminar on Predictability, 4-8 September 1995. ECMWF seminar proceedings, 1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK, 351-368.

Smith, Leonard A. (1995) Locally optimized prediction of nonlinear systems: stochastic and deterministic In: Tong, Howell, (ed.) Chaos and Forecasting. Nonlinear time series and chaos (2). World Scientific Publishing , Singapore. ISBN 9789810221263

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Local optimal prediction: exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348 (1688). 371-381. ISSN 1364-503X

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: a dynamic systems approach In: Beven, Keith J. and Chatwin, Phillip C. and Millbank, John H., (eds.) Mixing and Transport in the Environment : a Memorial Volume for Catherine M. Allen (1954-1991). J. Wiley, Chichester, UK, 383-399. ISBN 9780471941422

Smith, Leonard A. (1994) Visualizing predictability with chaotic ensembles In: Luk, Franklin T., (ed.) Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, and Implementations V (Proceedings Volume). SPIE, Bellingham, USA, 293-304. ISBN 9780819416209

Allen, Myles R. and Read, Peter L. and Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Temperature time-series? Nature, 355 (6362). 686. ISSN 0028-0836

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Comments on the paper of R Smith, estimating dimension in noisy chaotic time series Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 54 (2). 329-352. ISSN 1369-7412

Smith, Leonard A. (1992) Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). 50-76. ISSN 0167-2789

Provenzale, A. and Smith, Leonard A. and Vio, R. and Murante, G. (1992) Distinguishing between low-dimensional dynamics and randomness in measured time series Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 58 (1-4). 31-49. ISSN 0167-2789

Smith, Leonard A. (1991) Applied chaos: quantifying complex systems In: Atmanspacher, H., (ed.) Information Dynamics . NATO ASI series B (256). Plenum Press, New York, USA, 97-102.

Smith, Leonard A. (1990) Quantifying chaos through predicitve flows and maps: computing unstable periodic orbits In: Abraham, Neal B. and Albano, Alfonso, (eds.) Measures of Complexity and Chaos . NATO ASI series B (208). Plenum Press, New York, USA, 359-366. ISBN 9780306433870