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X-WR-CALNAME:Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20160204T113000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20160204T130000
DTSTAMP:20161128T162100
CREATED:20160127T111845
LAST-MODIFIED:20160127T125652
UID:5525-1454585400-1454590800@www.lse.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Franz Dietrich (CNRS): "Decisions under uncertainty with variable concepts of outcomes and states"
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: A notorious problem with Savage's decision theory and much of the literature on decisions under uncertainty is the reliance on ready-made and fixed concepts of outcomes and states. Real decision makers first of all need to form such concepts before even beginning to engage into expected-utility reasoning. Worse\, a real agent’s concepts of outcomes and states – that is\, his ontology – are far from fixed: they vary and can be more or less fine-grained\, depending on framing effects\, and more generally on the context. In this paper\, I introduce a "context-dependent Savage framework"\, in which I then propose six plausible Savage-style axioms on preferences. I prove that these axioms imply that the agent decides following the expected utility rule\, where the agent’s utility and probability functions can vary\, albeit in a systematic\, non-arbitrary way. Although important parts of beliefs (probabilities) and desires (utilities) remain stable\, the model can explain choice reversals. Savage's classic theorem emerges in the special case of a single context\, i.e.\, fixed outcome/state concepts.\n\nFranz Dietrich is Research Professor (Directeur de Recherche) at Paris School of Economics\, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne\, CNRSA.\n\nA working paper by Prof Dietrich on a related topic is available here.\n\n \n\n#LSEChoiceGroup
URL:http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/events/franz-dietrich-decisions-under-uncertainty-with-variable-concepts-of-outcomes-and-states/
LOCATION:Lakatos Building\, London\, WC2A 2AE\, United Kingdom
CATEGORIES:Choice Group
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