Managing Severe Uncertainty

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June 2014

Work-in-progress research presentations from Alex Voorhoeve and Roman Frigg.

26 June 2014, 2:00 pm4:00 pm

Work-in-progress research presentations from Alex Voorhoeve and Roman Frigg.

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December 2014

Richard Bradley (LSE): Pooling Expert Opinion

4 December 2014, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Casey Helgeson (LSE): Climate Uncertainties and Expert Elicitation

11 December 2014, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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This talk will introduce the topic of expert-elicited knowledge as an input to risk management and policy decision making, and survey applications in the field of climate/global change. Topics to include: elicitation methodology, whether to aggregate expert opinions, expert elicitation versus `expert judgment’ in IPCC assessments, and the role of expert elicitation in climate services. The main aim is to…

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January 2015

Simon Dietz (LSE Grantham Institute): Spaces for agreement: A theory of Time-Stochastic Dominance and an application to climate change

15 January 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: Many investments involve both a long time-horizon and risky returns. Making investment decisions thus requires assumptions about time and  risk preferences. Such assumptions are frequently contested, particularly  in the public sector, and there is no immediate prospect of universal agreement. Motivated by these observations, we develop a theory and method of finding ‘spaces for agreement’. These are combinations of classes of…

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February 2015

Richard Bradley (LSE) and Casey Helgeson (LSE): Decision and Climate Change Assessments

26 February 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Thursday, 26 February, 2:00 Richard Bradley (LSE) and Casey Helgeson (LSE), presenting work co-authored with Brian Hill (HEC, Paris) Decision and Climate Change Assessments ABSTRACT. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has adopted official guidelines for communicating uncertainties attached to the scientific findings that appear in their assessment reports. One novel feature of their approach is the use of ‘confidence’,…

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March 2015

Hykel Hosni (LSE): Symmetric vs asymmetric extensions of classical expected utility – Part 2

12 March 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Thursday, 12 March, 2:00 Hykel Hosni  (LSE)  Symmetric vs asymmetric extensions of classical expected utility -  PART 2  

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Elizabeth Baldwin (LSE Grantham Institute): Climate Policy with Incomplete Knowledge

19 March 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Thursday, 19 March, 2:00 Elizabeth Baldwin (LSE Grantham Institute) Climate Policy with Incomplete Knowledge ABSTRACT.  The economic effects of climate change, and the costs of any policy response, are very uncertain.  Models ought to reflect this.  The `minimal' theory for decision-making under Knightian uncertainty is is a model of incomplete beliefs and tastes.  I define a `dismal' situation in which different assumptions,…

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April 2015

Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal) and Pauline Barrieu (LSE CATS): Economic Policy when Models Disagree

30 April 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Thursday, 30 April, 2:00, LAK 2.06 Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal) and Pauline Barrieu (LSE CATS) Economic Policy when Models Disagree ABSTRACT: This paper introduces a general approach to conceive public policy when there is no consensual model of the situation of interest. This approach builds on one basic attribute  of rational policymakers -- namely their ability to appraise their experts’…

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May 2015

Magda Osman (Queen Mary University): What processes enable us to control uncertainty?

7 May 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Thursday, 7 May, 2:00, LAK 2.06 Magda Osman (Queen Mary University) What processes enable us to control uncertainty? ABSTRACT: The presentation will start with a round trip of psychological research in the domain of dynamic control. For the most part the literature has focused heavily, and unnecessarily, on weak empirical demonstrations of unconscious processes that are thought to underpin control…

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Erica Thompson (LSE CATS), Roman Frigg (LSE), and Casey Helgeson (LSE): Expert Judgement for Climate Change Adaptation

14 May 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play…

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June 2015

Work-in-progress presentations by (mostly) PhD students (LSE Philosophy) – PART 1: Nicolas Wuethrich, Casey Helgeson

4 June 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Work-in-progress presentations by (mostly) PhD students (LSE Philosophy) - PART 1: Nicolas Wuethrich, Casey Helgeson Nicolas Wuethrich Conceptualizing uncertainty: An assessment of the latest IPCC’s uncertainty framework We are facing severe uncertainties regarding the phenomenon of climate change. To address these uncertainties, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has introduced a new version of its framework for communicating uncertainty which involves a…

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Matthew Adler (Duke University): Prioritarianism and Climate Change

11 June 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: “Prioritarianism” is an ethical view that has been much discussed in recent normative ethics and theoretical welfare economics, but thus far has had little impact on climate change scholarship. The view gives greater weight to well-being changes affecting those at lower well-being levels. Formalized as a social welfare function (SWF), prioritarianism sums a strictly concave function of individual utilities--by…

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Decision Making under Severe Uncertainty

19 June 201520 June 2015
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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This workshop will take place under the joint auspices of the Managing Severe Uncertainty project based at the LSE and the DUSUCA project based at GREGHEC (HEC Paris, CNRS). Further details for this event will be announced soon,

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July 2015

Work-in-progress presentations by (mostly) PhD students (LSE Philosophy) – PART 2: Silvia Milano, Thomas Rowe

2 July 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Work-in-progress presentations by (mostly) PhD students (LSE Philosophy) - PART 2: Silvia Milano, Thomas Rowe Abstract TBC

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October 2015

MSU Reading Group: “How Probabilities Reflect the Evidence”

1 October 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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For its first meeting of the term, Managing Severe Uncertainty will hold a reading-group style discussion of the article: James Joyce (2005) "How Probabilities Reflect the Evidence".

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Casey Helgeson (LSE) and Katie Steele (LSE): “Integrating Theory and Practice in Deep Uncertainty Decision Science”

22 October 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: How do applied tools for deep uncertainty decision support (e.g., Robust Decision Making, Decision Scaling, Info-Gap, Adaptive Pathways) relate to the more exact and mathematised decision models of philosophy and economics? And how can theoreticians from the latter tradition best contribute to the development of applied decision support? We discuss possible answers and illustrate with a close look at…

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December 2015

Hauke Riesch (Brunel University London): “Levels of Uncertainty”

3 December 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: There exist a variety of different understandings, definitions, and classifications of risk, which can make the resulting landscape of academic literature on the topic seem somewhat disjointed and often confusing. In this chapter, I will introduce a map on how to think about risks, and in particular uncertainty, which is arranged along the different questions of what the different…

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Alessandro Tavoni (LSE Grantham Institute): “Climate change games in the lab: economic experiments on bargaining and mitigation”

10 December 2015, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: TBA

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February 2016

Kasper Plattner (IPCC Technical Support Unit): “IPCC 2013/2014: Assessing the Science of Climate Change”

25 February 2016, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: TBC   #ManagingSevereUncertainty

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March 2016

Roberto Buizza (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts): “Signals and noise, hawk-moths and butterflies: Weather prediction in a world of uncertainties”

10 March 2016, 2:00 pm4:00 pm
LAK 2.06, Lakatos Building
London, WC2A 2AE United Kingdom
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Abstract: Ensemble-based, probabilistic systems provide (at least up to now) the most effective way to predict the weather taking into account all relevant sources of uncertainty, to extract predictable signals from sometimes noisy single forecasts. They help us living and dealing with both the butterfly effect (sensitive dependence to initial condition errors; see Lorenz 1963 J. Atm. Sci.) and the…

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