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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20150430T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20150430T160000
DTSTAMP:20161128T160330
CREATED:20150423T101955
LAST-MODIFIED:20150423T101955
UID:2791-1430402400-1430409600@www.lse.ac.uk
SUMMARY:Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal) and Pauline Barrieu (LSE CATS): Economic Policy when Models Disagree
DESCRIPTION:Thursday\, 30 April\, 2:00\, LAK 2.06\n\nBernard Sinclair-Desgagné (HEC Montreal) and Pauline Barrieu (LSE CATS) Economic Policy when Models Disagree \n\nABSTRACT: This paper introduces a general approach to conceive public policy when there is no consensual model of the situation of interest. This approach builds on one basic attribute  of rational policymakers -- namely their ability to appraise their experts’ scenarios and  forecasts -- and uses only one normative criterion: that the value to policymakers of a  remedy’s projected outcomes meets their willingness to escape the current situation.  Unlike the methods currently put forward in the literature\, it does not need -- but  is compatible with -- a representative policymaker’s objective function (as in the ambiguity aversion literature)\, a reference model (as in robust control theory) or some prior probability distribution over the set of supplied scenarios (as in Bayesian model-averaging). It can handle situations where policy decisions are made through collective deliberations and voting. Policies constructed in this manner are shown to be effective\, robust\, simple and precautionary in a precise and intuitive sense.
URL:http://www.lse.ac.uk/philosophy/events/bernard-sinclair-desgagne-hec-montreal-and-pauline-barrieu-lse-cats-economic-policy-when-models-disagree/
LOCATION:Lakatos Building\, London\, WC2A 2AE\, United Kingdom
CATEGORIES:Managing Severe Uncertainty
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