Modelling is vital if we are to control COVID-19, but it is not infallible. In this post, Roman Frigg and James Nguyen explain how epidemiological models work and consider the uncertainty inherent in their predictions.
Jessie Munton (Cambridge): “Base rate neglect in the service of modal knowledge”
Are there ever good epistemic reasons to misrepresent base rates? I investigate this question in the context of recent legislation restricting the presentation of gender stereotypes, and the representation of minority groups in children’s books. I argue that our hesitancy around certain base rates makes sense […]
Miklós Rédei (LSE): “On the Tension Between Physics and Mathematics”
Because of the complex interdependence of physics and mathematics their relation is not free of tensions. The talk looks at how the tension has been perceived and articulated by some physicists, mathematicians and mathematical physicists. Some sources of the tension are identified and it is claimed that the […]
Can the justification for current COVID restrictions be challenged on scientific grounds? Philippe van Basshuysen and Lucie White look at the evidence used by Winsberg et al. in their case against lockdowns.
Julia Staffel (Colorado): “Updating Incoherent Credences – Extending the Dutch Strategy Argument for Conditionalization”
In this paper, we ask: how should an agent who has incoherent credences update when they learn new evidence? The standard Bayesian answer for coherent agents is that they should conditionalize; however, this updating rule is not defined for incoherent starting credences. We show […]
We’re pleased to welcome Giacomo Giannini to the Department as a new LSE Fellow.
The 8th annual LSE-Bayreuth Student Philosophy Conference will take place 7-8 May 2021 online via Zoom, hosted by the University of Bayreuth.
SAGE uses a set of assumptions called the “reasonable worst-case scenario” in its pandemic planning. In this post, Jonathan Birch looks at the group’s minutes and documents from early 2020 and argues that over-reliance on these assumptions led to costly delays.
What unfolded in the UK in the spring of 2020 was a national tragedy within the global tragedy […]
We’re pleased to announce that this year’s MSc prizes have been awarded to Oscar Flowers, Marabel Riesmeier, Jan-Paul Sandmann and Alice Vandermosten.
Join us on 13 January for this free workshop on the future and the challenges of open access publishing in philosophy, organised by the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science.
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