to issue 9 of CATS
We're delighted to
congratulate Swenja Surminski on the birth of baby Leo born 20th June. Looks
like he will be well and truly doted on by his three older siblings!
And we welcome back Pauline Barrieu whose baby Arthur appears to be settling
in well to the Department of Statistics!
Sadly there were also two
departures in June: Falk Niehoerster and Max Fehr. Falk will be taking up
the post of RPI (Risk Prediction Initiative) Science Program Manager at the
Bermuda Institute of Ocean Science (BIOS) at the end of July, and Max has
now begun a new post in the private sector here in London. We wish them both
the very best in their new posts, and hope they will nevertheless
continue to collaborate with CATS/GRI/CCCEP colleagues here at LSE.
This week sees the Royal
Society Summer Science Exhibition at which CATS/GRI/CCCEP will have a stand
from Uncertainty: Interpreting Climate Predictions'. Thanks to all though
who are helping out, and please come and visit us there at some point during
the week. Details of all the exhibits and opening times etc. can be found on
the RS Exhibition
We hope to run the 'Confidence
exhibition again as part
Festival of Social Science
which runs from 29th October to 5th November. Details are still to be
confirmed but please hold
Friday 4th November
in your diaries for this event. we plan to hold the exhibit here at LSE for
the afternoon coupled with a talk from an invited speaker.
Professor Henry Wynn on being awarded a Leverhulme Emeritus fellowship.
The award is for a 2-year project entitled
'Advances in algebraic statistics'.
Conferences, Workshops, presentations etc...
Smith gave a talk entitled "Insight or Numerical
Engineering? The Role of Simulation Modeling in Quantitative Decision
Support" at the
Epistemology of Modeling and Simulation Conference, University of
Pittsburgh, on 3rd April 2011.
Nicola Ranger and Swenja
Surminski took part in the workshop 'Risk Perception and Insurance in the context
of Climate Change' on 10th May 2011.
Visiting Professor Arthur
Petersen visited CATS/GRI from 16th May to 10th June.
David Stainforth presented a talk at the
2011 Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance, 17th - 20th May.
The talk was entitled "Seeking and Extracting Relevant Information: Linking
Natural Science, Social Science and Policy".
Leonard Smith, Arthur
Petersen, Hailiang Du and Milena Cuellar attended the
Predictability + School on Data Assimilation, held at NORDITA,
Stockholm, 25-27 May.
Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled "Things they didn't tell you last week:
DA in Maths, Physics, and Decision Support"; Hailiang Du gave a talk
entitled "Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards
Reality" and Milena Cuellar gave a talk entitled "Parameter and state
estimation nonlinear models".
Leonard Smith gave an
invited talk, "What (and who) do ensembles of climate models inform" at
Challenges in Climate Modelling 2011 at the University of Uppsala on
Alex Jarman presented the
poster 'Small-number statistics, common sense and profit: challenges and
non-challenges for hurricane forecasting' (Alex Jarman and Leonard Smith) at
the LSE Research Day, 26th May.
Jerome Ellepola along with
Jan van Schijndel, Nort Thijssen, Govert Baak, Abhijeet Avhale and Johan
Grievink presented a paper "Development of a synthesis tool for
Gas-to-Liquid complexes" at the ESCAPE 21
Symposium, Halkidiki, 29th May - 1st June.
Ralph Rayner was involved in organising the workshop 'Sweet
Sea Observations: How Great Lakes Observations Can Work for You'. The
workshop was held at the Edison Boat Club, Detroit, Michigan, 21 June.
David Stainforth was a
featured speaker at the
International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague 26th - 29th June where he gave two talks
keynote speaker at the
Advances in Marine
Ecosystem Modelling Symposium, University of Plymouth, 27-30 June.
& other news
Leonard Smith and Emma Suckling will be teaching and giving talks at the
Monsoon School on
Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation at the
TIFR Centre for Applicable Mathematics, Bangalore, India, 4 - 23 July
Leonard Smith will be giving
an invited talk at the 14th Congress
of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Nancy, 19-26 July.
Ralph Rayner will give a keynote talk to selected graduate students at
Imperial College on 28th July as part of the
London International Youth Science Forum.
The LIYSF is a two week residential event held at Imperial College and this
year has the theme Ocean Science: The Science of the Seas.
Milena Cuellar is visiting
professor at Universidad de los Andes
in Bogota, Columbia until August. She is currently teaching Physics to engineering
students and undertaking research whilst there.
Papers & other
Beven, KJ., Smith, PJ., and
Wood, A. (2011) "On
the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)"
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 8, 5355-5386, 2011
Beven, KJ (2011) "I believe
in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the
future?" Hydrological Processes, Vol. 25, Issue 9, pp: 1517-1520, 30
Ranger, N. and Garbett-Shiels,
S.L. (2011) "How
can decision-makers in developing countries incorporate uncertainty about
future climate risks into existing planning and policy making processes?"
CCCEP/Grantham Policy Paper in collaboration with the World Resources Report
Reeder, T. and Ranger, N.
do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100
project". World Resources Report, Washington D.C
Westerberg, I., Guerrero,
J.-L., Seibert, J., Beven, K. J., and Halldin, S., 2011, "Stage-discharge
uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca
River, Honduras" Hydrological Processes, 25, 603-613, DOI:
Alfieri L., Smith P.J.,
Thielen-del Pozo J., and Beven K.J., 2011, "A staggered approach to flash
flood forecasting –
case study in the Cevennes Region", Advances in Geosciences, 29,
Beven, K J and Brazier, R E,
2011, "Dealing with Uncertainty in Erosion Models", in RPC Morgan and MA
Nearing (Eds) 'Handbook of Erosion Modelling', Wiley-Blackwell: Chichester,
Buytaert, W and Beven, K J,
2011, "Models as multiple working hypotheses: Hydrological simulation of
tropical alpine wetlands", Hydrological Processes, in press
Beven K J, 2011, "Distributed
Models and Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management", in G. Pender and H.
Faulkner (Eds.), 'Flood Risk Science and Management', Wiley-Blackwell:
Beven, K J, Leedal, D T and
Alcock, R, 2010, Uncertainty and good practice in hydrological prediction,
submitted and/or in revision:
Pappenburger, F., Cloke, HL., Wetterhall, F. and Dutra, E. "Hyperesolved
ignorance: A comment on Wood et al (2011) Hyperresolution global land
surfacing modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's
terrestrial water" submitted to Water Resources Research.
Smith and Nicholas Stern "Uncertainty in Science and its Role in Climate
Policy" in review for Royal Society Phil Trans A
Tredger, E., Stainforth, D.A. & Lopez, A. "On the Relevance of Model
Averages for Science Based Policy" submitted to GRL
James & Richards, Gary "On the delivery of weather services and parallels
for the development of operational forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and
verification systems" submitted to Carbon Management. If you would
like a draft copy of the paper, please contact Lyn Grove (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Binter, R & Niehoerster, F "Limits of i-shadowing in a perfect model
rotating annulus" submitted to Physica D
& Fehr, MW “Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread
option pricing” submitted to Operations Research
& Tobelem,S “A new methodology for asset allocation under model risk”
submitted to Quantitative Finance
& Sinclair Desgagne, B. “Economic Policy when Models Disagree” submitted to
Senz-de-Cabezn, E. and Wynn, H. P. "the
Betti numbers of polynomial
hierarchical models for experimental designs"
submitted to Annals of Mathematics and Artificial
Bates, R.A., Maruri-Aguilar,
H and Wynn, H.P. "Smooth
supersaturated models" submitted to
Journal of Statistical
Planning and Inference
& Du, H.L. "Parameter estimation using Ignorance" in revision for
Du, HL &
Smith, LA "Improvement in Full Probability Forecasting at Seasonal
Lead-times" in revision for QJRMS
Khare, S &
Smith, LA "Data assimilation: A fully nonlinear approach to ensemble
formation using Indistinguishable States" in revision for Monthly Weather
Maruri-Aguilar, H and
Wynn, H. P. "D-Optimality of
Sobol Sequences for Haar Wavelet
Models" under revision for Journal
of Statistical Theory and Practice
Giovagnoli, A and
Wynn, H. P. "(U,V)-ordering
and a duality theorem for risk aversion
and Lorentz-type ordering. Under
revision for Statistical Papers