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Welcome
to issue 11 of CATS
e-news.
Coming up very soon - we will be running the 'Confidence from
Uncertainty' exhibition again as part of the
ESRC
Festival of Social Science on Friday 4th November at LSE. Please
see the attached
flyer.
Interactive exhibit: 11.00-18.00, Lower Ground Floor, LSE New Academic
Building,
Public lecture by Dr David Stainforth: 18.30-19.30, Wolfson Theatre, LSE New
Academic Building followed by a reception. There is no need to
book, but it would be helpful if you could e-mail
cats@lse.ac.uk to let us know if you
intend to come.
Congratulations to both
Roman Binter and Joe Daron who have submitted their theses and now await
their vivas.
Conferences, workshops, presentations, etc...
September & October
Visiting Professor Arthur
Petersen is on the organising committee of a workshop taking place this week at the Lorentz Center
in Leiden, entitled 'Error
in the Sciences: Diagnosis, Prognosis and Rectifying Measures. Leonard
Smith is also presenting a talk entitled 'On the Role of the Relevant
Dominant Uncertainty in Science and in Science-based Policy' at the
workshop.
Henry Wynn is on the
scientific advisory committee for the
Design and
Analysis of Experiments programme being held at the Isaac Newton
Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge which runs until the end of December
2011.
Ed Hawkins (climate
scientist in NCAS-Climate at the Department of Meteorology, University of
Reading) gave a seminar entitled 'Uncertainty
in Uncertainty', related to projections of future climate change, on
19th October 2011 at LSE.
Leonard Smith gave a talk at
the NOAA Severe Storms Laboratory,
Oklahoma, on 17th October 2011.
Roman Frigg gave a talk
entitled 'Climate forecasting with chaos or chaos in climate
forecasting?' at the EPSA 2011 Conference, Athens, 5-8 October 2011.
Joe Daron gave a
talk at the 2nd One Day Research Student Conference
Human Behaviour and Climate Change at Cardiff University, 22nd September
2011.
Leonard Smith attended the
European
Conference on Applications of Meteorology EMS Annual Meeting,
Berlin, 12-16 September 2011 and the
SAMSI Geosciences Applications workshop, 21-23 September 2011.
Alex Jarman
attended the
SAMSI Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification, North Carolina, USA, 7th -
11th September 2011.
Professor Keith Beven visited CATS for a workshop on 6th September
2011.
Other news
CATS (with Leonard Smith as PI and Henry Wynn as CoI) are partners on an FP7
Environment call proposal submitted this month. The proposal, entitled
'Resource use Impact and Sustainability Indicators (RISI)' is led by
Professor Thomas Pretz of the
Department of Processing and Recycling at RWTH Aachen University. Other
partners include the Department of Sciences for the Environment at
Parthenope University of Naples, the
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology at Autonomous University
of Barcelona, and the Finland Futures
Research Centre at the University of Turku.
Congratulations to Ron Bates, former
Senior Research Fellow in CATS, who has
been made a Fellow of the Institute of
Mechanical Engineers. Ron Bates is also currently a visiting Fellow at
Brunel.
Following the submission of
his thesis, Joe Daron has taken up a
post-doc research position in the
Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town. His position forms part of a team engaged in the development of
climate services establishing relationships between scientists and
decision-makers across Africa. His research will focus on the communication
of climate information and explore issues relating to climate change
uncertainty and the delivery of climate model output to users. Joe stated
that he had very much enjoyed his past two years working in CATS and hopes
to come back and visit in the near future.
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Papers & other
outputs
Papers recently
finished
Leonard
Smith and Nicholas Stern "Uncertainty in Science and its Role in Climate
Policy" has been accepted by the Royal Society Phil Trans A and
the online edition will be available from 31st October 2011.
Khare, S., and Smith, LA.,
(2011), Data assimilation: a fully nonlinear approach to ensemble formation
using Indistinguishable States Monthly Weather Review, Vol 139 (7),
2080-2097
Hanson, S., Nicholls, R.,
Ranger, N., Hallegatte, S., Corfee-Morlot, J., Herweijer, C., Chateau, J.
(2011) A Global Ranking of Port Cities with High Exposure to Climate
Extremes, Nature Climate Change, 104 (1), 89-111
Halegatte, S., Ranger, N.,
Mestre, O., Dumas, P., Corfee-Morlot, J., Herweijer, C., Muir Wood, R.
(2011) Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Risk
in Port Cities: A case study on Copenhagen, Nature Climate Change,
104 (1), 113-137
Ranger, N. Hallegatte, S.,
Bhattacharya, S., Bachu, M., Priya, S., Dhore, K., Rafique, F., Mathur, P.,
Naville, N., Henriet, F., Herweijer, C., Pohit, S., Corfee-Morlot, J. (2011)
An Assessment of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Flood Risk in
Mumbai, Nature Climate Change, 104 (1), 139-167
Beven, K. J. and Alcock, R.,
(2011), Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision making
for water management under uncertainty, Freshwater Biology, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02592.x
Beven, KJ., Smith, PJ., and
Wood, A. (2011) "On
the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)"
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 8, 5355-5386, 2011
Beven, KJ (2011) "I believe
in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the
future?" Hydrological Processes, Vol. 25, Issue 9, pp: 1517-1520, 30
April 2011
Ranger, N. and Garbett-Shiels,
S.L. (2011) "How
can decision-makers in developing countries incorporate uncertainty about
future climate risks into existing planning and policy making processes?"
CCCEP/Grantham Policy Paper in collaboration with the World Resources Report
Reeder, T. and Ranger, N.
(2011) "How
do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100
project". World Resources Report, Washington D.C
Westerberg, I., Guerrero,
J.-L., Seibert, J., Beven, K. J., and Halldin, S., 2011, "Stage-discharge
uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca
River, Honduras" Hydrological Processes, 25, 603-613, DOI:
10.1002/hyp.7848.
Alfieri L., Smith P.J.,
Thielen-del Pozo J., and Beven K.J., 2011, "A staggered approach to flash
flood forecasting –
case study in the Cevennes Region", Advances in Geosciences, 29,
13-20
Beven, K J and Brazier, R E,
2011, "Dealing with Uncertainty in Erosion Models", in RPC Morgan and MA
Nearing (Eds) 'Handbook of Erosion Modelling', Wiley-Blackwell: Chichester,
52-79.
Buytaert, W and Beven, K J,
2011, "Models as multiple working hypotheses: Hydrological simulation of
tropical alpine wetlands", Hydrological Processes, in press
Beven K J, 2011, "Distributed
Models and Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management", in G. Pender and H.
Faulkner (Eds.), 'Flood Risk Science and Management', Wiley-Blackwell:
Chichester, 291-312.
Ghil, M., Read, P., Smith,
LA., 2010, Geophysical flows as dynamical systems: the influence of Hide's
experiments, Astronomy & Geophysics, Vol. 51, Issue 4, pp. 28-35.
Beven, K J, Leedal, D T and
Alcock, R, 2010, Uncertainty and good practice in hydrological prediction,
Vatten, 66:159 –163
Media
An interview with former CATS research assistant Falk Niehorster was
featured in Bermuda's
Royal Gazette, 22nd September 2011.
Several articles appeared following the CATS/GRI exhibit at the Royal
Society Summer Science Exhibition:
'A
Chance to Meet Real Live Scientists' The Guardian, 6th July
2011.
An interview with David Stainforth, part of the Royal
Society 'Meet the Scientists' series, July 2011.
David Stainforth was quoted in an
article 'Can
a Candid Climate Modeler Convince Contrarians?' in
Scientific American,
19th July 2011. The article also appeared as 'Intrepid
British climate modeler sets out to win over doubters' in Climate
Wire, 19th July 2011.
Papers
submitted and/or in revision:
Nicola
Ranger and Falk Niehoerster "Deep
Uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and
implications for future climate experiments" submitted to Global
Environmental Change.
Beven, KJ.,
Pappenburger, F., Cloke, HL., Wetterhall, F. and Dutra, E. "Hyperesolved
ignorance: A comment on Wood et al (2011) Hyperresolution global land
surfacing modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's
terrestrial water" submitted to Water Resources Research.
Smith, LA,
Tredger, E., Stainforth, D.A. & Lopez, A. "On the Relevance of Model
Averages for Science Based Policy" submitted to GRL
Baker, D.
James & Richards, Gary "On the delivery of weather services and parallels
for the development of operational forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and
verification systems" submitted to Carbon Management. If you would
like a draft copy of the paper, please contact Lyn Grove (l.grove@lse.ac.uk)
Young, RMB,
Binter, R & Niehoerster, F "Limits of i-shadowing in a perfect model
rotating annulus" submitted to Physica D
Barrieu, PM
& Fehr, MW “Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread
option pricing” submitted to Operations Research
Barrieu, PM
& Tobelem,S “A new methodology for asset allocation under model risk”
submitted to Quantitative Finance
Barrieu, PM
& Sinclair Desgagne, B. “Economic Policy when Models Disagree” submitted to
Econometrica
Maruri-Aguilar, H.,
Senz-de-Cabezn, E. and Wynn, H. P. "the
Betti numbers of polynomial
hierarchical models for experimental designs"
submitted to Annals of Mathematics and Artificial
Intelligence
Bates, R.A., Maruri-Aguilar,
H and Wynn, H.P. "Smooth
supersaturated models" submitted to
Journal of Statistical
Planning and Inference
Smith, LA.
& Du, H.L. "Parameter estimation using Ignorance" in revision for
Physics
Review Letters
Du, HL &
Smith, LA "Improvement in Full Probability Forecasting at Seasonal
Lead-times" in revision for QJRMS
Khare, S &
Smith, LA "Data assimilation: A fully nonlinear approach to ensemble
formation using Indistinguishable States" in revision for Monthly Weather
Review
Maruri-Aguilar, H and
Wynn, H. P. "D-Optimality of
Sobol Sequences for Haar Wavelet
Models" under revision for Journal
of Statistical Theory and Practice
Giovagnoli, A and
Wynn, H. P. "(U,V)-ordering
and a duality theorem for risk aversion
and Lorentz-type ordering. Under
revision for Statistical Papers
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