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Welcome
to issue 10 of CATS
e-news.
We are pleased to announce
that Dr Roman Frigg has been appointed Co-Director of CATS. Roman is a
senior lecturer in the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific
Method, and the Director of the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social
Science (CPNSS).
CATS/GRI had an exhibit
entitled 'Confidence
from Uncertainty: Interpreting Climate Predictions' at the
Royal Society Summer
Science exhibition, 5th - 10th July. There were over 13,000 visitors to
the exhibition over the six days. Thanks to all who were involved in the
preparation and helped out with the event. See below for media articles
relating to the exhibit. We will be running the 'Confidence from
Uncertainty' exhibition again as part of the
ESRC
Festival of Social Science on Friday 4th November at LSE.
Conferences, workshops, presentations, etc... June, July
& August
A CATS roast was held on 10th June with Dave Mcleod and Andy Morse
(collaborator on the EQUIP
project) from the
University of Liverpool discussing work on seasonal and climate models.
Visiting Professor Keith
Beven taught a PhD
course on Uncertainty Estimation for Environmental Models at
Uppsala University, 7th - 16th June. This is the fifth time he has taught the course at Uppsala; 20 students from 12 nationalities attended this year, taking the total
to 100 students who have taken the course.
Roman Frigg gave an invited
plenary lecture 'Climate Forecasting with Chaos, or Chaos in Climate
Forecasting?' at the BSPS
Annual Conference, University of Sussex, 7th - 8th July.
Oliver Walker gave a talk
entitled 'Reasoning about Unawareness: A decision Theoretic Account' at the
Decisions, Games and Logic
workshop, University of Maastricht, Netherlands, 7th - 9th July.
Leonard Smith and Emma Suckling
gave talks and taught at the
Monsoon School on
Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation at the
TIFR Centre for Applicable Mathematics, Bangalore, India, 4th - 23rd
July 2011. The meeting was an 'international workshop on data assimilation'.
Lenny lectured and Emma gave tutorials and led one group of students for
project work as part of an inter-comparison experiment on data assimilation
methods. Emma also gave a talk entitled 'Gradient
descent assimilation for the point-vortex model'.
Leonard Smith gave
an invited talk entitled 'Insight or Numbers? Distinguishing Climate Science
from Climate Modelling' at the SPS side event
Climate science and climate change: Epistemological and methodological
issues, part of the
14th Congress
of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Nancy, 19th - 26th July.
Ralph Rayner gave a keynote talk to selected graduate students at
Imperial College on 28th July as part of the
London International Youth Science Forum.
The LIYSF is a two week residential event held at Imperial College and this
year had the theme Ocean Science: The Science of the Seas.
Hailiang Du gave a talk
entitled 'Better data assimilation through gradient descent' at the
LMS/EPSRC Durham Symposium on
Mathematics of Data Assimilation, 1st - 11th August 2011.
Leonard Smith attended the
ICIS Workshop 'Verification,
Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Across Disciplines' in Utah,
6th - 13th August 2011, giving a talk entitled 'Scientific Support for
Climate Policy: Is a VVUQ analysis of today's models helpful? And where not:
what then?'
Upcoming Conferences
& other news
Professor Keith Beven will be visiting CATS for a workshop on 6th September
2011.
Alex Jarman will be
attending the
SAMSI Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification, North Carolina, USA, 7th -
11th September 2011.
Joe Daron will be giving a
talk at the 2nd One Day Research Student Conference
Human Behaviour and Climate Change at Cardiff University, 22nd September
2011.
Following the submission of his PhD thesis
in September, Joe Daron will be taking up a
post-doc research position in the
Climate Systems Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town in
October. We wish Joe all the best for the future!
Visiting Professor Arthur
Petersen is on the organising committee of a workshop at the Lorentz Center
in Leiden, entitled 'Error
in the Sciences: Diagnosis, Prognosis and Rectifying Measures', 24th -
28th October 2011. Leonard Smith will also participate in the workshop.
Henry Wynn is fellow in
residence at the Isaac Newton Institute
for Mathematical Sciences in Cambridge until December 2011.
The Managing Uncertainty in
Complex Models (MUCM) has launched a
re-vamped website. Please see
http://www.mucm.ac.uk/.
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New co-director
Dr Roman Frigg
Emma Suckling with project students in Bangalore
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Papers & other
outputs
Papers recently
finished
Beven, K. J. and Alcock, R.,
(2011), Modelling everything everywhere: a new approach to decision making
for water management under uncertainty, Freshwater Biology, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02592.x
Beven, KJ., Smith, PJ., and
Wood, A. (2011) "On
the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)"
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion, 8, 5355-5386, 2011
Beven, KJ (2011) "I believe
in climate change but how precautionary do we need to be in planning for the
future?" Hydrological Processes, Vol. 25, Issue 9, pp: 1517-1520, 30
April 2011
Ranger, N. and Garbett-Shiels,
S.L. (2011) "How
can decision-makers in developing countries incorporate uncertainty about
future climate risks into existing planning and policy making processes?"
CCCEP/Grantham Policy Paper in collaboration with the World Resources Report
Reeder, T. and Ranger, N.
(2011) "How
do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100
project". World Resources Report, Washington D.C
Westerberg, I., Guerrero,
J.-L., Seibert, J., Beven, K. J., and Halldin, S., 2011, "Stage-discharge
uncertainty derived with a non-stationary rating curve in the Choluteca
River, Honduras" Hydrological Processes, 25, 603-613, DOI:
10.1002/hyp.7848.
Alfieri L., Smith P.J.,
Thielen-del Pozo J., and Beven K.J., 2011, "A staggered approach to flash
flood forecasting –
case study in the Cevennes Region", Advances in Geosciences, 29,
13-20
Beven, K J and Brazier, R E,
2011, "Dealing with Uncertainty in Erosion Models", in RPC Morgan and MA
Nearing (Eds) 'Handbook of Erosion Modelling', Wiley-Blackwell: Chichester,
52-79.
Buytaert, W and Beven, K J,
2011, "Models as multiple working hypotheses: Hydrological simulation of
tropical alpine wetlands", Hydrological Processes, in press
Beven K J, 2011, "Distributed
Models and Uncertainty in Flood Risk Management", in G. Pender and H.
Faulkner (Eds.), 'Flood Risk Science and Management', Wiley-Blackwell:
Chichester, 291-312.
Beven, K J, Leedal, D T and
Alcock, R, 2010, Uncertainty and good practice in hydrological prediction,
Vatten, 66:159 –163
Media
Several articles appeared following the CATS/GRI exhibit at the Royal
Society Summer Science Exhibition:
'A
Chance to Meet Real Live Scientists' The Guardian, 6th July
2011.
An interview with David Stainforth, part of the Royal
Society 'Meet the Scientists' series, July 2011.
David Stainforth was quoted in an
article 'Can
a Candid Climate Modeler Convince Contrarians?' in
Scientific American,
19th July 2011. The article also appeared as 'Intrepid
British climate modeler sets out to win over doubters' in Climate
Wire, 19th July 2011.
Papers
submitted and/or in revision:
Nicola
Ranger and Falk Niehoerster "Deep
Uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk: scenario generation and
implications for future climate experiments" submitted to Global
Environmental Change.
Beven, KJ.,
Pappenburger, F., Cloke, HL., Wetterhall, F. and Dutra, E. "Hyperesolved
ignorance: A comment on Wood et al (2011) Hyperresolution global land
surfacing modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's
terrestrial water" submitted to Water Resources Research.
Leonard
Smith and Nicholas Stern "Uncertainty in Science and its Role in Climate
Policy" in review for Royal Society Phil Trans A
Smith, LA,
Tredger, E., Stainforth, D.A. & Lopez, A. "On the Relevance of Model
Averages for Science Based Policy" submitted to GRL
Baker, D.
James & Richards, Gary "On the delivery of weather services and parallels
for the development of operational forest carbon monitoring, reporting, and
verification systems" submitted to Carbon Management. If you would
like a draft copy of the paper, please contact Lyn Grove (l.grove@lse.ac.uk)
Young, RMB,
Binter, R & Niehoerster, F "Limits of i-shadowing in a perfect model
rotating annulus" submitted to Physica D
Barrieu, PM
& Fehr, MW “Integrated EUA and CER price modeling and application for spread
option pricing” submitted to Operations Research
Barrieu, PM
& Tobelem,S “A new methodology for asset allocation under model risk”
submitted to Quantitative Finance
Barrieu, PM
& Sinclair Desgagne, B. “Economic Policy when Models Disagree” submitted to
Econometrica
Maruri-Aguilar, H.,
Senz-de-Cabezn, E. and Wynn, H. P. "the
Betti numbers of polynomial
hierarchical models for experimental designs"
submitted to Annals of Mathematics and Artificial
Intelligence
Bates, R.A., Maruri-Aguilar,
H and Wynn, H.P. "Smooth
supersaturated models" submitted to
Journal of Statistical
Planning and Inference
Smith, LA.
& Du, H.L. "Parameter estimation using Ignorance" in revision for
Physics
Review Letters
Du, HL &
Smith, LA "Improvement in Full Probability Forecasting at Seasonal
Lead-times" in revision for QJRMS
Khare, S &
Smith, LA "Data assimilation: A fully nonlinear approach to ensemble
formation using Indistinguishable States" in revision for Monthly Weather
Review
Maruri-Aguilar, H and
Wynn, H. P. "D-Optimality of
Sobol Sequences for Haar Wavelet
Models" under revision for Journal
of Statistical Theory and Practice
Giovagnoli, A and
Wynn, H. P. "(U,V)-ordering
and a duality theorem for risk aversion
and Lorentz-type ordering. Under
revision for Statistical Papers
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