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Predictioneer: How to predict the future with game-theory


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Speaker(s): Professor Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Chair: Professor Richard Steinberg

Recorded on 21 October 2009 in Sheikh Zayed Theatre, New Academic Building.

Hailed as 'the new Nostradamus', Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has been shaking the world of political science to its foundations with his predictions of world events. His systems based on game theory have an astonishing 90%+ ratio of accuracy and are frequently used to shape US foreign-policy decisions on issues such as the terrorist threat to America to the peace process in Northern Ireland. Considered by many to be the most important foreign-policy analyst there is, it is no surprise that he is regularly consulted by the CIA and US Department of Defence. In this lecture Professor Bueno de Mesquita will look at what is needed to reliably anticipate and even alter events in any situation involving negotiation in the shadow of the threat of coercion. He will demonstrate how to bring science to decision making in any situation from personal to professional.

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