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The Signal and the Noise: the art and science of prediction

Download: Audio

Speaker(s): Nate Silver
Chair: Professor Craig Calhoun

Recorded on 29 April 2013 in Old Theatre, Old Building.

In this age of information-overload, Silver argues it is more difficult than ever to distinguish a true "signal" from the noisy universe of data. Silver shows that by embracing uncertainty, and being alert to the role that motivations and biases can play in warping predictions, we will be less likely to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times. In 2012, he correctly predicted the outcome of 50 out of 50 states during the US presidential election, trumping the professional pollsters and pundits. He was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world, and one of Rolling Stones' top Agents of Change. Silver graduated with Honors with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of Chicago. He spent his third year at the London School of Economics and Political Science. His new book is The Signal and the Noise: the art and science of prediction.

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