Leading election forecasters gathering at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) say Britain is heading for a “deeply hung” parliament in May’s general election – a situation where no party is close to an overall majority.
A total of 12 forecasting teams, many of which correctly predicted that the 2010 election would be a hung parliament, agree no single party will win the 326 seats required for a majority.
Half of the forecasters predict that the Conservatives will be at least narrowly ahead, while half predict Labour will win the most seats.
On average, the twelve forecasts point to a close finish with Labour on 282 seats, and the Conservatives on 275.
All but one of the forecasters agree the Liberal Democrats will lose a substantial number of constituencies, winning a total of 25 seats, 32 fewer than in the 2010 election.
Most believe the SNP are set to make sweeping gains, on average predicting a total of 41 seats. Consequently the SNP is likely to find itself in a pivotal position when inter-party negotiations take place after the election..
Dr Stephen Fisher, Associate Professor in Political Sociology at the University of Oxford, and one of the organisers of the conference, said:
“While it seems clear Britain is heading for a hung parliament – and most likely one in which no party is even close to an overall majority – it is far from certain which party will emerge with most seats. Much could turn on whether a relatively small number of votes switch in one direction or the other. During the next six weeks voters genuinely have the fate of David Cameron and Ed Miliband in their hands.”
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1. More details of each of the forecasting methods and forecast updates will be posted on LSE's General Election Blog| as they become available.
2. Forecasting teams involved in the conference include those at electionforecast.co.uk|, ElectionsEtc.com|, the Polling Observatory| and the British Election Study|, as well as teams from North America,
3. For further details please contact: Stephen Fisher 07789 484416, stephen.fisher@trinity.ox.ac.uk| or the LSE Press Office on 020 7955 7060, pressoffice@lse.ac.uk|.
4. The conference, Forecasting the 2015 British General Election, took place at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) on Friday 27 March.
27 March 2015