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Hope, maths and the weather

What part does uncertainty and error play in modern weather forecasting? If we were willing to pay a great deal, how good a forecast might we get?

In a lecture next Wednesday 17 March, Dr Leonard Smith, director of the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS) at LSE, will talk about the notions of chaos, randomness and model inadequacy that underpin modern weather forecasting.

The lecture is the second in a programme of two themed lectures taking place at University College London under the banner of the Lighthill Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The first will be given by Dougal Goodman, director of the Foundation for Science and Technology on Risk Transfer Problems.

Dr Smith's lecture is entitled Hope, Regret and Insight: the roles of meteorology in the advance predictability theory over the last 200 years.

He said: 'Weather and climate forecasts in the next century will look quite different from those of today. The last few hundred years have brought great advances in our ability to predict a wide variety of things. But what are we advancing toward?'

The lectures will be held in the Hardy Room, De Morgan House, 57 -58 Russell Square, London WC1B 4HS. They are open to all but may involve some advanced maths. Dr Smith's lecture is from 6.15-7pm

Ends

Contact Jessica Winterstein, LSE Press Office, Tel: 020 7955 7060, email: j.winterstein@lse.ac.uk|  

Notes

For an overview of some of his work on weather, please see Weather Roulette, LSE Magazine, at  Summer 03, Weather|

For more on the Lighthill seminars, please see http://www.ucl.ac.uk/Mathematics/department/lighthillseminars.html 
(Link - no longer available)

15 March 2004

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