Estimating Incumbency Advantages in African Politics:
Regression discontinuity evidence from Zambian parliamentary and local government elections
Bobbie Macdonald
Excellent Dissertation and Best Overall Performance,
MSc Development Studies (2013)
Abstract
Are incumbents disproportionately advantaged at the polls relative to non-incumbents in Africa's emerging democracies? The prevailing wisdom characterises African politics as predominantly 'neopatrimonial' and 'semi-authoritarian' in which incumbents systematically manipulate the electoral process to their own advantage. In stark contrast to this perspective, this study finds significant incumbency disadvantages in Zambia's local government elections using a regression discontinuity approach, as well as no discernible incumbency advantages at the parliamentary level over the period 1991-2011. Furthermore, the strength of these advantages appear to be closely associated with higher levels of voter information, poorer economic conditions, and a structural shift in party competition. These results effectively expand the incumbency effects literature into the African context and offer an important contrast to the conventional wisdom of African politics.
Keywords
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Incumbency
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Zambia
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Estimation
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African politics
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Elections
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