Explicit Bayesian analysis for process tracing: guidelines, Oopportunities, and caveats
Fairfield, Tasha and Charman, Andrew
Political Analysis (2017)
Bayesian probability holds the potential to serve as an important bridge between qualitative and quantitative methodology. Yet whereas Bayesian statistical techniques have been successfully elaborated for quantitative research, applying Bayesian probability to qualitative research remains an open frontier. This paper advances the burgeoning literature on Bayesian process tracing by drawing on expositions of Bayesian “probability as extended logic” from the physical sciences, where probabilities represent rational degrees of belief in propositions given the inevitably limited information we possess.
To read the full article, click here >>