The White Cliffs of Dover. Brexit: What Happens Next? cover image.

Brexit: What Happens Next?

Brexit is a process not an event.

OliverTim

Author

Tim Oliver

LSE IDEAS Associate

This Strategic Update sets out the positions the 27 remaining EU countries and the EU’s institutions will take in negotiations, gathered from a network of researchers across the continent.

Read the online edition:

 Brexit: What Happens Next?

Download the pdf:

Brexit: What Happens Next?

About the author

Tim Oliver is an LSE IDEAS Associate who was previously a Dahrendorf Forum fellow. He is director of research at Brexit Analytics, having spent several years as a lecturer in defence and international affairs at the British Army’s Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. He has also taught at LSE and UCL.

References

[1] Dominiczak, Peter; Riley-Smith, Ben. ‘David Cameron branded ‘totally irresponsible’ for warning of Brexit impact while not creating contingency plans’. Daily Telegraph, Feb 2016. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12178324/David-Cameron-branded-totally-irresponsible-for-warning-of-Brexit-impact-while-not-creating-contingency-plans.html

[2] Nicholas Watt, Alan Travis and Rowena Mason, ‘avid Cameron ridicules Boris Johnson’s second EU referendum idea’ The Guardian, 22 February 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/22/david-cameron-ridicules-boris-johnsons-second-referendum-idea

[3] Emily Cadman and Henry Mance, ‘Michael Gove says leaving EU would mean quitting single market’, FT, 8 May 2016. https://next.ft.com/content/0c5c74bc-151e-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e

[4] Charlie Cooper, ‘EU referendum: MPs may push to keep UK in European single market despite Brexit vote’ The Independent, 6 June 2016. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-mps-may-push-to-keep-uk-in-european-single-market-despite-brexit-vote-a7067056.html

[5] Tim Oliver, Why the EU referendum will not be the end of the story. Federal Trust, London. February 2016. http://fedtrust.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Why_the_EU_Referendum_will_not_be_the_end_of_the_story.pdf

[6] For more details on the Sewel convention see: http://www.gov.scot/About/Government/Sewel/KeyFacts

[7] Tim Oliver and Michael J. Williams, ‘Special relationships in flux: Brexit and the future of the US-EU and US-UK relationships’ International Affairs, Vol. 92, No. 3, 2006. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/ia/inta92-3-03-oliver%20and%20williams.pdf

[8] Stephen Booth, ‘Open Europe’s “EU Wargames”: what did they tell us?’ Open Europe, 26 January 2016. http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/open-europe-eu-wargames-what-did-they-tell-us/

[9] Renwick, Alan. ‘Does the Prime Minister have to trigger Brexit talks under Article 50 after a vote to leave the EU?’ The UCL Constitution Unit blog, February 2016. https://constitution-unit.com/2016/02/23/does-the-prime-minister-have-to-invoke-article-50-if-we-vote-for-brexit/

[10] Vaughne Miller, EU referendum: the process of leaving the EU. House of Commons Library briefing paper, No. 7551, 8 April 2016. http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7551#fullreport

[11] Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ‘The seven blunders: why Brexit would be harder than Brexiters think’ Centre for European Reform, 28 April 2016. https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/seven-blunders-why-brexit-would-be-harder-brexiters-think

[12] Details of these agreements are available at the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs: http://www.europa.admin.ch/themen/00500/index.html?lang=en

[13] Tim Oliver, ‘How the EU responds to a British withdrawal will be determined by 5 key factors’ LSE BrexitVote blog, 3 December 2015. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2015/12/03/europes-potential-responses-to-a-british-withdrawal-from-the-union-will-be-determined-by-ideas-interests-institutions-the-international-and-individuals/

[14] Jean-Claude Piris, If the UK votes to leave: he seven alternatives to EU membership. Centre for European Reform, 12 January 2016. http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2016/if-uk-votes-leave-seven-alternatives-eu-membership

[15] Tim Oliver, A European Union without the UK: the geopolitics of a British exit from the EU. LSE Strategic Update, February 2016. http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/Strategic-Updates/brexit.aspx

[16] Alan Posener, ‘Germans need to get real on Brexit’ Carnegie Europe, 16 June 2016. http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=63826

[17] The Five Presidents’ Report: Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union. European Commission, 22 June 2015. https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/publications/five-presidents-report-completing-europes-economic-and-monetary-union_en

[18] I am grateful to each of the individual authors for their contributions to the series. The summaries given here have been compiled by me. The opinions expressed are those of the individuals and not their institutions.

[19] Original view written by Dr Arnold Kammel, director of the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy, Vienna. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/preparations-for-a-brexit-iv-views-from-austria-the-czech-republic-finland-greece-and-malta/

[20] Original view written by Fabian Willermain, Egmont, the Royal Institute for International Relations, Brussels. Opinions expressed do not reflect the views of the Egmont Institute. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/14/preparations-for-a-brexit-v-views-from-belgium-hungary-latvia-slovakia-and-sweden/

[21] Original view written by Antoinette Primatarova, Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/06/preparations-for-a-brexit-iii-views-from-bulgaria-cyprus-luxembourg-poland-and-portugal/

[22] Original view written by Dr. Senada Šelo Šabić, Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/29/preparations-for-a-brexit-ii-views-from-croatia-estonia-ireland-lithuania-and-romania/

[23] Original view written by Dr Adonis Pegasiou, University of Cyprus. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/06/preparations-for-a-brexit-iii-views-from-bulgaria-cyprus-luxembourg-poland-and-portugal/

[24] Original view written by Vladimír Bartovic, EUROPEUM Institute for European Policy, Prague, and Zuzana Kasáková, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/preparations-for-a-brexit-iv-views-from-austria-the-czech-republic-finland-greece-and-malta/

[25] Original view written by Henrik Larsen, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/21/preparations-for-a-brexit-views-from-denmark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

[26] Original view written by Erkki Bahovski, Editor-in-Chief of Diplomaatia magazine in Estonia. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/29/preparations-for-a-brexit-ii-views-from-croatia-estonia-ireland-lithuania-and-romania/

[27] Original view written by Juha Jokela, Finnish Institute of International Affairs. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/preparations-for-a-brexit-iv-views-from-austria-the-czech-republic-finland-greece-and-malta/

[28] Original view written by Vivien Pertusot. Institut Francais des Relations Internationales. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/13/preparations-for-a-brexit-the-eu-will-shape-what-happens-after-a-vote-to-withdraw/

[29] Original view written by Almut Möller, Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/13/preparations-for-a-brexit-the-eu-will-shape-what-happens-after-a-vote-to-withdraw/

[30] Original view written by Dr George Tzogopoulos, Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) and the Centre International de Formation Européenne (CIFE). http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/preparations-for-a-brexit-iv-views-from-austria-the-czech-republic-finland-greece-and-malta/

[31] Original view written by Dr. Zoltán Gálik, Corvinus University of Budapest. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/14/preparations-for-a-brexit-v-views-from-belgium-hungary-latvia-slovakia-and-sweden/

[32] Original view written by Andrew Gilmore, Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/29/preparations-for-a-brexit-ii-views-from-croatia-estonia-ireland-lithuania-and-romania/

[33] Original view written by Eleonora Poli, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Rome. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/21/preparations-for-a-brexit-views-from-denmark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

[34] Original view written by Ilvija Bruģe, Latvian Institute of International Affairs. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/14/preparations-for-a-brexit-v-views-from-belgium-hungary-latvia-slovakia-and-sweden/

[35] Original view written by Živilė Vaicekauskaite, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/29/preparations-for-a-brexit-ii-views-from-croatia-estonia-ireland-lithuania-and-romania/

[36] Original view written by Dr. Martine Huberty, IASGP Coordinator, ECFR Associate Researcher. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/06/preparations-for-a-brexit-iii-views-from-bulgaria-cyprus-luxembourg-poland-and-portugal/

[37] Original view written by Professor Roderick Pace, Institute for European Studies, University of Malta. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/27/preparations-for-a-brexit-iv-views-from-austria-the-czech-republic-finland-greece-and-malta/

[38] Original view written by Rem Korteweg, Centre for European Reform. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/21/preparations-for-a-brexit-views-from-denmark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

[39] Original view written by Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Centre for European Reform. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/06/preparations-for-a-brexit-iii-views-from-bulgaria-cyprus-luxembourg-poland-and-portugal/

[40] Original view written by Dr António Raimundo, University of Minho and ISCTE-University Institute of Lisbon. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/06/preparations-for-a-brexit-iii-views-from-bulgaria-cyprus-luxembourg-poland-and-portugal/

[41] Original view written by Agnes Nicolescu, Aspen Institute, Romania. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/29/preparations-for-a-brexit-ii-views-from-croatia-estonia-ireland-lithuania-and-romania/

[42] Original view written by Vladimír Bilčík, Slovak Foreign Policy Association and Comenius University. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/14/preparations-for-a-brexit-v-views-from-belgium-hungary-latvia-slovakia-and-sweden/

[43] Original view written by Marko Lovec, Centre for International Relations of Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ljubljana. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/21/preparations-for-a-brexit-views-from-denmark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

[44] Original view written by Laia Mestres, Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/21/preparations-for-a-brexit-views-from-denmark-italy-the-netherlands-slovenia-and-spain/

[45] Original view written by Björn Fägersten Swedish Institute of International Affairs. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/06/14/preparations-for-a-brexit-v-views-from-belgium-hungary-latvia-slovakia-and-sweden/

[46] Original view written by Dr Yann-Sven Rittelmeyer, European Policy Centre, Brussels. http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/04/13/preparations-for-a-brexit-the-eu-will-shape-what-happens-after-a-vote-to-withdraw/

[47] For a more detailed analysis of Brexit that goes wrong see Brown, Stuart A. and Dhingra, Swati and Oliver, Tim (2016) The Brexit scenarios: towards a new UK-EU relationship, Documents CIDOB (New era), Morillas, Pol, ed 7. Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, Barcelona, Spain. http://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/documents_cidob_new_era/the_brexit_scenarios_towards_a_new_uk_eu_relationship

 

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