London's future: a scenario approach

29 October 2010

This well-attended half-day seminar brought together leading academic, policy and professional experts to examine London's economy at the end of the deepest recession since 1945. Ian Gordon, from LSE's Geography Department, looked at the question of whether or not the London Plan should consider one or more alternative scenarios in addition to a 'central' one.

In particular, Gordon considered the possible impact of a slow-down in international in-migration to London as a potential scenario for the future, arguing that immigration had been a more key factor in London population growth than the Plan recognised. He also argued that most city plans are bidding documents as much as strategic pathways to the future.

Ian' Gordon's chapter in the upcoming LSE London publication, 'London Coping with Austerity', was distributed to the audience as a point of departure and discussion for the afternoon, and can be downloaded to the right of this page as well. Bridget Rosewell, GLA economist and Chairman of Volterra Consulting presented information about the progress of the London and UK economies in the period before, during and after the 2008-09 recession.

She showed how banking was a relatively small part of the London economy and of total employment and also that the public sector (which will shrink in the years ahead) was a smaller share of the London economy than of any other region in the country. London, on balance, was well placed to survive the future. Tim Leunig, from the Economic History Department at the LSE explained how the economic differences between London and many other parts of the UK had led (an continue to lead) to a migration of talent from the rest of the country and other parts of the world to London. London's workforce is better qualified and younger than in the rest of the country, which continues to allow regeneration and resurgence.

 Simple and relatively cheap improvements to the city's infrastructure would allow it to continue to succeed. However, in order to provide sufficient housing at a reasonable price, it would be necessary to use part of the Green Belt to build new homes.

The presentations were followed by a debate led by the Chief Executive of the Centre for Cities, Alexandra Jones. The day concluded with a drinks reception.   

For further details about this event, please contact: lselondon@lse.ac.uk 

 

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