/* *** This do file creates the replication results for Why Aid is Unpredictable? An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid (with Gustavo Javier Canavire-Bacarreza and Peter Nunnenkamp), Journal of International Development, 27 (4), 2015, pp. 440-463 Eric Neumayer (LSE) Please report any errors to e.neumayer@lse.ac.uk */ use "Article for ID (aid) stacked.dta", replace tsset country_id_devl_period acty capture dropvars report_dum_* gen report_dum_2008=0 replace report_dum_2008=1 if (acty==2008 & devl_period==1) | (acty==2009 & devl_period==2) | (acty==2010 & devl_period==3) gen report_dum_2009=0 replace report_dum_2009=1 if (acty==2009 & devl_period==1) | (acty==2010 & devl_period==2) | (acty==2011 & devl_period==3) gen report_dum_2010=0 replace report_dum_2010=1 if (acty==2010 & devl_period==1) | (acty==2011 & devl_period==2) capture dropvars report_counter gen report_counter=0 replace report_counter=1 if report_dum_2008==1 replace report_counter=2 if report_dum_2009==1 replace report_counter=3 if report_dum_2010==1 ** Table 1 reg ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_pop l.ln_gdppc l.polity2 fragmentation_1 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) outreg2 using table1, replace excel reg ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_pop l.ln_gdppc l.polity2 fragmentation_2 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) outreg2 using table1, append excel reg ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_pop l.ln_gdppc l.polity2 fragmentation_3 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) outreg2 using table1, append excel ** Table 2 reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_1 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_1=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_1 outreg2 using table2, replace excel reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_2 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_2 outreg2 using table2, append excel reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table2, append excel ** Table 3 * Extension: add further variables of need and merit reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1 outreg2 using table3, replace excel * Extension: add donor characteristics reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic outreg2 using table3, append excel * Extension: add specific donor motives reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt outreg2 using table3, append excel * Extension: add all additional control variables reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.d.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.diff_gr_rate test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_sumaffected test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.orphan1lt1 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.darling1gt1 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_not_spplan test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.sh_egoistic test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.unsc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ratios test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.durchschnitt outreg2 using table3, append excel ** Table 4 * Two-way clustering cgmreg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country report_counter) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table4, replace excel * Robustness test: insert regional dummy variables reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 reg_* i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table4, append excel * Robustness test: not stacked use "Article for ID (aid) non-stacked.dta", replace tsset country_id acty reg ln_devl1_absolute devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl1_absolute devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc devl1_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 devl1_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 i.acty , cluster(country) test 0.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl1_absolute=1.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl1_absolute test 0.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.devl1_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.devl1_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.devl1_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table4, append excel su ln_devl1_absolute if e(sample) reg ln_devl2_absolute devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl2_absolute devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc devl2_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 devl2_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 i.acty , cluster(country) test 0.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl2_absolute=1.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl2_absolute test 0.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.devl2_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.devl2_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.devl2_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table4, append excel su ln_devl2_absolute if e(sample) reg ln_devl3_absolute devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl3_absolute devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc devl3_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 devl3_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 i.acty , cluster(country) test 0.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl3_absolute=1.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_devl3_absolute test 0.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop=1.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop test 0.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc=1.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc test 0.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.polity2=1.devl3_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 test 0.devl3_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3=1.devl3_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_3 outreg2 using table4, append excel su ln_devl3_absolute if e(sample) * Appendix 2 use "Article for ID (aid) stacked.dta", replace tsset country_id_devl_period acty quietly reg ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_dev_lall_absolute dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_pop dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.ln_gdppc dev_lall_negative_dum#c.l.polity2 dev_lall_negative_dum#c.fragmentation_1 i.acty report_dum_* i.devl_period, cluster(country) su ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_dev_lall_absolute l.ln_pop l.ln_gdppc l.polity2 fragmentation_1 fragmentation_2 fragmentation_3 l.d.polity2 l.diff_gr_rate l.ln_sumaffected orphan1lt1 darling1gt1 sh_not_spplan sh_egoistic l.unsc l.ratios l.durchschnitt active_donors if e(sample)