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2012-13 Seminar Series

The Dynamics of Conflict in the Greek Civil War 1946-1949

Speaker : Professor Nicos Christodoulakis

Professor of Economic Analysis at the Athens University of Economics and Business

Minister of the Economy (2001-2004) and Minister for Development (2000-2001)

Research Associate, Hellenic Observatory, LSE

Chair : Dr Vassilis Monastiriotis 
Associate Professor in the Political Economy of South East Europe, LSE
Date :

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Abstract

Using a new set of data, the paper examines the characteristics of the three-year conflict in the Greek Civil War and the costs incurred in the society and the economy.

The econometric estimation of a dynamic model reveals that both sides were trapped in a self-perpetuated conflict with its outcome remaining ambivalent until a large scale operations led to the termination of hostilities in August 1949. The prolongation of conflict is explained in a game-theoretic framework by the lack of clear strategies either by the Government or the Communist Party of Greece, and a mutual mistrust that repeatedly prevented an early resolution. The long conflict caused massive human and material destruction, dislocation and emigration, and it took decades for the consequences to be partially healed.

Using production function techniques, the paper measures the economic cost of the Civil War and finds it to be roughly equal to one annual GDP, close to the losses evaluated for the deadliest conflicts in the modern era.

Photos

  1

Professor Nicos Christodoulakis and Dr Vassilis Monastiriotis 

 

2  
The audience in Canada Blanch room

 

3

 Professor Nicos Christodoulakis presenting his research

 

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