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Research interestsInternational Trade (primary)Economic Development, Economic History (secondary)
Job market paperGerms, Roads, and Trade: Resilience of Globally Sourcing Firms in the Face of the SARS Epidemic
This paper studies supply chain disruptions and their heterogeneous impacts on firms. I build a model of global sourcing in which heterogeneous firms select to importing from countries and via customs with different efficiencies, taking into account domestic and international trade costs. Under input complementarity, the model predicts that high productivity firms are more geographically diversified in sourcing, which makes them more resilient to adverse shocks to the supply chain. Reductions in trade costs induce firms to further diversify their sourcing strategies. I then explore the 2003 SARS epidemic as a natural experiment to examine the resilience of Chinese manufacturing importers. Imports fell by 7.9% on average when the trade route was hit by SARS, but as much as 52% for a firm without any diversification. The marginal cost of firms whose imports were hit by SARS increased by less if the firm had more trade routes for importing. The epidemic reduced aggregate manufacturing output by about 0.7% at its peak. Connectivity to roads increased firms' resilience to the epidemic by facilitating input diversification.
“The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects”, Economic Policy, Volume 32, Issue 92, 1 October 2017, Pages 651–705. (with S. Dhingra, G. Ottaviano, J. Pessoa, T Sampson and J. van Reenen.)
“Structural Adjustments and International Trade: Theory and Evidence from China”. (with Jiandong Ju and Vivian Yue). Under review.
"Comparative Advantage, Competition, and Firm Heterogeneity". (with Gianmarco Ottaviano). Mimeo.
Placement OfficerProfessor Wouter Den Haan
SupervisorProfessor Gianmarco Ottaviano
AdvisorsDr Thomas SampsonDr Catherine Thomas
ReferencesProfessor Gianmarco OttavianoDr Thomas SampsonDr Catherine Thomas
Phone number+44 (0)74 5029 0090
Office AddressDepartment of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE
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