Publications

The following is a list of CATS publications. In most cases you can download the full article.
You are welcome to ask questions concerning any of the papers on our Discussion Forums page

Papers here are listed chronologically. You can also see papers listed by topic

Papers

R Hagedorn and LA Smith (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorological Applications16 (2): 143-155. Abstract

K Judd, CA Reynolds, LA Smith & TE Rosmond (2008) The Geometry of Model Error (DRAFT). Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 65 (6), 1749--1772. Abstract

K Judd, LA Smith & A Weisheimer (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Q. J. Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626), 1309-1325. Abstract

DA Stainforth, MR Allen, ER Tredger & LA Smith (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161. Abstract

J Bröcker, LA Smith (2008) From Ensemble Forecasts to Predictive Distribution Functions Tellus A 60(4): 663. Abstract

J Bröcker, LA Smith (2007) Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: On the Importance of Being Proper Weather and Forecasting 22 (2), 382-388. Abstract

J Bröcker & LA Smith (2007) Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams. Weather and Forecasting, 22(3), 651-661. Abstract

A Guerrero & LA Smith (2005) A Maximum Likelihood estimator for Long-range Persistence, Phys. Lett. A 355 (2-4): 619-632. Abstract

MS Roulston, J Ellepola & LA Smith (2005) Forecasting Wave Height Probabilities with Numerical Weather Prediction Models Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15), 1841-1863. Abstract

DA Stainforth, T Aina, C Christensen, M Collins, DJ Frame, JA Kettleborough, S Knight, A Martin, J Murphy, C Piani, D Sexton, L Smith, RA Spicer, AJ Thorpe, MJ Webb, MR Allen (2005) Evaluating Uncertainty in the Climate Response to Changing Levels of Greenhouse Gases, Nature 433 (7024): 403-406. Abstract

I. Golobic, E Pavlovic, J von Hardenberg, M Berry, RA Nelson, DBR Kenning, and LA Smith (2004) Comparison of a Mechanistic Model for Nucleate Boiling with Experimental Spatio-Temporal Data, Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82(A), 1-10. Abstract

A Weisheimer, LA Smith & K Judd (2004) A New View of Forecast Skill: Bounding Boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts, Tellus 57 (3): 265-279 MAY. Abstract

D Kilminster, L Clarke, J Bröcker, M Roulston, C Ziemann & LA Smith (2004) From MOS to eMOS: Generalising Model Output Statistics For Full Ensemble Forecasts. Abstract

K Judd & LA Smith (2004) Indistinguishable States II: The Imperfect Model Scenario Physica D 196: 224-242. Abstract

MG Altalo & LA Smith (2004) Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk Environmental Finance October 2004, 20: 8-9. Abstract

F Kwasniok & LA Smith (2004) Real-time Construction of Optimized Predictions from Data Streams Phys.Rev. Lett. 92 (16). Abstract

PE McSharry and LA Smith (2004) Consistent Nonlinear Dynamics: identifying model inadequacy, Physica D 192: 1-22. Abstract

LA Smith & JA Hansen (2004) Extending the Limits of Forecast Verification with the Minimum Spanning Tree, Mon. Weather Rev. 132 (6): 1522-1528. Abstract

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2004) The Boy Who Cried Wolf Revisited: The Impact of False Alarm Intolerance on Cost-Loss Scenarios, Weather and Forecasting 19 (2): 391-397. Abstract

K Judd, LA Smith & A Weisheimer (2004) Gradient Free Descent: shadowing and state estimation using limited derivative information, Physica D 190 (3-4): 153-166. Abstract

M Altalo & M Hale (2004) Turning Weather Forecasts into Business Forecasts, Environmental Finance, May 2004. Abstract

D Orrell & LA Smith (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: The spectral bifurcation diagram Int. J. Bif Chaos 13 (10): 3015-3027. Abstract

J Bröcker & U Parlitz (2003) Analyzing Communication Schemes Using Methods from Nonlinear Filtering, Chaos Vol 13 (1), March 2003. Abstract

A Guerrero & LA Smith (2003) Towards coherent estimation of correlation dimension Phys. Lett. A 318 373-379. Abstract

PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: are nonlinear methods relevant?  Nature Medicine 9 (3): 241-242. Abstract

LA Smith (2003) Predictability Past Predictability Present (PDF). In 2002 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. pg 219-242. ECMWF, Reading, UK. Abstract

PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2002) Comparison of Predictability of Epileptic Seizures by a Linear and a Nonlinear Method IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(5), 628-633. Abstract

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2003) Combining Dynamical and Statistical Ensembles Tellus 55 A, 16-30. Abstract

PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2002) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals, IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(3), 289-294. Abstract

MS Roulston, DT Kaplan, J Hardenberg & LA Smith (2003) Using medium-range weather forecasts to improve the value of wind energy production Renewable Energy 28 (4) April 585-602. Abstract

MS Roulston and LA Smith (2002) 'Weather and Seasonal Forecasting' in Climate Risk and the Weather Market pg 115-126 (ed RS Dischel), Risk Books, London. Abstract

PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2002) Method for Generating an Artificial RR Tachogram of a Typically Healthy Human Over 24-Hours Computers in Cardiology 29 225-228. Abstract

PE McSharry, T He, LA Smith & L. Tarassenko (2002) Linear and nonlinear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electro-encephalogram recordings Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4): 447-461. Abstract

J von Hardenberg, T Kono, DBR Kenning, PE McSharry & LA Smith (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions, in International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2), 298-304. SCI 2. Abstract

MS Roulston & LA Smith (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory, Monthly Weather Review 130 6: 1653-1660. Abstract

LA Smith, (2002) What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 4 (99): 2487-2492. Abstract

D Orrell, LA Smith, T Palmer & J Barkmeijer (2001) Model Error in Weather Forecasting Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 8: 357-371. Abstract

JA Hansen & LA Smith (2001) Probabilistic Noise Reduction. Tellus 53 A (5): 585-598. Abstract

I Gilmour, LA Smith & R Buizza (2001) Linear Regime Duration: Is 24 Hours a Long Time in Synoptic Weather Forecasting?  J. Atmos. Sci. 58 (22): 3525-3539. Abstract

K Judd & LA Smith (2001) Indistinguishable states I: the perfect model scenario Physica D 151: 125-141. Abstract

PE McSharry, JH Ellepola, J von Hardenberg, LA Smith, DBR Kenning & K Judd (2001) Spatio-temporal Analysis of Nucleate Pool Boiling: Identification of Nucleation Sites using Non-orthogonal Empirical Functions (NEFs). Int. J. Heat & Mass Transfer 45 (2): 237-253. Abstract

LA Smith (2000) 'Disentangling Uncertainty and Error: On the Predictability of Nonlinear Systems' in Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, ed. Alistair I. Mees, Boston: Birkhauser, 31-64. Abstract

JA Hansen & LA Smith (2000) The Role of Operational Constraints in Selecting Supplementary Observations J. Atmos. Sci., 57 (17): 2859-2871. Abstract

LA Smith (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100, in Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, ed. S. Haykin (IEEE, Piscataway), pg 129-134 (Figure 1). Abstract

C Ziehmann, LA Smith & J Kurths (2000), Localized Lyapunov Exponents and the Prediction of Predictability Phys. Lett. A, 271 (4): 237-251. Abstract

P McSharry & LA Smith (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: Attractors with maximum likelihood Phys. Rev. Lett 83 (21): 4285-4288. Abstract

LA Smith, C Ziehmann & K Fraedrich (1999) Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems  Quart. J. Royal Meteorological Soc. 125: 2855-2886. Abstract

C Ziehmann, LA Smith & J Kurths (1999) The bootstrap and Lyapunov exponents in deterministic chaos  Physica D, 126 (1-2): 49-59. Abstract

LA Smith & I Gilmour (1998) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. In The Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997. ECMWF, Reading, UK. Abstract

P McSharry & LA Smith (1998) Just Do It. Reductionism, Modelling and Black-box Forecasting In International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications with Time-Series Prediction Competition, edited by J.A.K. Suykens and J. Vandewalle, pp. 106-111, K.U. Leuven, Belgium, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1997) 'The Maintenance of Uncertainty' in Proc International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXXXIII, pg 177-246, Societ`a Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy. Abstract

M.R. Allen & L.A. Smith (1997) Optimal Filtering in Singular Spectrum Analysis Phys. Lett. A 234 (6): 419-428. Abstract

I. Gilmour & L.A. Smith (1997) Enlightenment in shadows. In Applied nonlinear dynamics and stochastic systems near the millennium, pg 335-340. Ed. J.B. Kadtke and A. Bulsara. AIP, New York. Abstract

F. Paparella, A. Provenzale, L.A. Smith, C. Taricco & R. Vio (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Phys. Lett. A 235 (3): 233-240. Abstract

M.R. Allen & L.A. Smith (1996) Monte Carlo SSA: detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise J. of Climate 9 (12): 3373-3404. Part 3. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1995) Accountability and Error in Ensemble Forecasting. In 1995 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. Vol 1, pg 351-368. ECMWF, Reading, UK. Abstract

J. Theiler & L.A. Smith (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51 (4): 3738-3741. Part B. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1994) Local Optimal Prediction: Exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. A, 348 (1688): 371-381. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1994) Visualising Predictability with Chaotic Ensembles, in Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures and Implementations, ed F.T. Luk. SPIE Vol 2296: 293-304. Bellingham, WA. Abstract

M.R. Allen & L.A. Smith (1994) Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21 (10): 883-886. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: A dynamical systems analysis, in Mixing Transport and the Environment, ed. K. Beven, P.C. Chatwin & J.H. Millbank, pg 383-399, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1993) Does a Meeting in Santa Fe Imply Chaos? in Predicting the Future and Understanding the Past, pg 323-344, Ed A Weigend & N Gersenfeld, SFI Series in Complexity XV, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1992) Identification and prediction of low dimensional dynamics Physica D 58 (1-4): 50-76. Abstract

M.R. Allen, P.L. Read & L.A. Smith (1992) Temperature time-series? Nature 355 (6362): 686. Abstract

A. Provenzale, L.A. Smith, R. Vio & G. Murante (1992) Distinguishing Between Low-dimensional Dynamics and Randomness in Measured time series. Physica D 58 (1-4): 31-49. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1991) Applied Chaos: Quantifying Complex Systems, in Information Dynamics , pg 97-102, Ed. H. Atmanspacher, et al. NATO ASI Series B, Vol 256, Plenum Press, New York. Abstract

L.A. Smith, K. Godfrey, P. Fox & K. Warwick (1991) A New Technique for Fault Detection in Multi-Sensor Probes, in Control 91, IEE Publication 332, 1: 1062-1067. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1989) Quantifying Chaos through Predictive Flows and Maps: Computing Unstable Periodic Orbits, in Quantitative Measures of Complexity, pg 359-366, Ed N. Abraham & A. Albino. NATO ASI Series B, Vol 208, Plenum Press, New York. Abstract

L.A. Smith (1988) Intrinsic Limits on Dimension Calculations Phys. Lett. A 133 (6): 283-288. Abstract

L.A. Smith & E.A. Spiegel (1987) Strange Accumulators, in Chaos in Astrophysics, Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 497: 61-65. Abstract

L.A. Smith, J.-D. Fournier, & E.A. Spiegel (1986) Lacunarity and Intermittency in Fluid Turbulence Phys. Lett. 114 A (8-9): 465-468. Abstract

L.A. Smith & E.A. Spiegel (1985) Pattern Formation by Particles Settling in Viscous Flows Lect Notes in Phys 230: 306-318. Abstract

Conference & Workshop Proceedings

J Broecker (2005) On comparing nonlinear filtering algorithms NOLTA 2005, Bruges, Belgium. Abstract

C Merkwirth, J Bröcker, J Wichard & M Ogorzalek (2005) Can DT-CNN Classifiers Outperform SVM's? NOLTA 2005, Bruges, Belgium. Abstract

D Kilminster, L Clarke, J Bröcker, M Roulston, C Ziemann and LA Smith (2004) From MOS to eMOS: Generalising Model Output Statistics For Full Ensemble Forecasts. THORPEX Int. Sci. Symp., Montreal. Abstract

Operational Weather Risk Workshop: "Operational Approaches to Managing Weather Risk: From Hours to Decades". CATS, London School of Economics, 2004. Abstract

Recent Abstracts

J Broecker, L Clarke, D Kilminster & LA Smith (2005) Scoring probabilistic forecasts. Abstract

L Clarke, J Broecker, D Kilminster & LA Smith (2005) Do multi-model ensemble forecasts yield added value?. Abstract

In Production and/or Review

L Clarke and L Smith (2006) Detecting Transparent Noise. Submitted to Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, Elsevier

LA Smith, MC Cuellar, H Du and K Judd (2006) A Geometric Approach to Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear Systems. Submitted to Phys Rev Lett.

MC Cuellar and LA Smith. (2006) On the Curious Behavior of MCMC Parameter Estimation in the Logistic Map.
To be submitted to Phys. Lett. A

MC Cuellar and L Fernandez (2006) An Efficient Algorithm for Random Sampling from Quartic Exponential Distributions. To be submitted to Journal of Statistical Software

MC Cuellar, L Clarke, M Brown and LA Smith (2005) The Role of Operational Constraints on MCMC Parameter Estimation: The Case of the UK Electricity Grid. Submitted to International Journal of Energy and Power Systems, Elsevier

K. Judd, L.A. Smith & A. Weisheimer (2004) How good is a forecast ensemble at capturing truth? Quart. J. Royal Meteorological Soc. (In review, Dec 2003)

L.A. Smith, M.G. Altalo & C. Ziehmann (2004) Predictive Distributions from an Ensemble of Forecasts: Electricity Demand Forecasts from Imperfect Weather Models Physics D (in review, Oct 2004)

D. Kilminster & L.A. Smith (2004) Ignorance as a skill score for probabilistic forecasts and some of its properties Int. J. Forecasting (in review, Nov 2004)

M. Roulston & L.A. Smith (2004) Weather roulette In preparation for Weather, 8 pages.

Encyclopaedia Entries and Technical Reports

L.A. Smith (2002) Predictability and Chaos in Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences Eds. J. Holton, J. Pyle, and J. Curry, pg 1777-1785. Academic Press.

M.S. Roulston, C. Ziehmann & L.A. Smith (2001) A Forecast Reliability Index from Ensembles: A Comparison of Methods Technical Report Prepared for Deutscher Wetterdienst.

L.A. Smith, M. Roulston & J. von Hardenburg (2001) End to end ensemble forecasting: Towards evaluating the economic value of the Ensemble Prediction System Technical Memorandum 336 29 pp. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, UK.

Books

A Very Short Introduction to Chaos (2007). Oxford University Press. A contribution to the OUP "A Very Short Introduction" series, focused on chaos and prediction.

Book Reviews

'Feeding Frenzy is short of juice' in the Times Higher Education Supplement, Aug 18, 2000. A review of The Predictors by Thomas A. Bass.

Rough Survey of how ticks all add up in the Times Higher Education Supplement textbook guide, May 26, 2000. A review of Econophysics by R. Mantegna and H. E. Stanley.

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