Leonard A Smith: Publications

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SCI => Number of citations as at September 2009

Papers

[78] R Hagedorn and LA Smith (2009) Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette. Meteorological Applications 16 (2): 143-155. Abstract

[77] K Judd, CA Reynolds, LA Smith & TE Rosmond (2008) The Geometry of Model Error (DRAFT). Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 65 (6), 1749-1772. SCI 1. Abstract

[76] K Judd, LA Smith & A Weisheimer (2007) How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Q. J. Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626), 1309-1325 SCI 1. Abstract

[75] DA Stainforth, MR Allen, ER Tredger & LA Smith (2007) Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161. SCI 12. Abstract

[74] J Bröcker & LA Smith (2008) From Ensemble Forecasts to Predictive Distribution Functions Tellus A 60(4): 663. SCI 2. Abstract

[73] J Bröcker, LA Smith (2007) Scoring Probabilistic Forecasts: The Importance of Being Proper Weather and Forecasting, 22 (2), 382-388. SCI 11. Abstract

[72] J Bröcker & LA Smith (2007) Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams. (Draft copy) Weather and Forecasting, 22(3), 651-661.  SCI 5. Abstract

[71] A Guerrero & LA Smith (2005) A Maximum Likelihood estimator for Long-range Persistence, Phys. Lett. A 355 (2-4, 619-632. Abstract

[70] MS Roulston, J Ellepola & LA Smith (2005) Forecasting Wave Height Probabilities with Numerical Weather Prediction Models, Ocean Engineering 32 (14-15), 1841-1863. SCI 3. Abstract

[69] DA Stainforth, T Aina, C Christensen, M Collins, DJ Frame, JA Kettleborough, S Knight, A Martin, J Murphy, C Piani, D Sexton, L Smith, RA Spicer, AJ Thorpe, M.J Webb, MR Allen (2005) Uncertainty in the Predictions of the Climate Response to Rising Levels of Greenhouse Gases Nature 433 (7024): 403-406.  SCI 224. Abstract

[68] A Weisheimer, LA Smith & K Judd (2005) A New View of Forecast Skill: Bounding Boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts, Tellus 57 (3) 265-279 MAY.   SCI 10. Abstract

[67] I Golobic, E Pavlovic, J von Hardenberg, M Berry, RA Nelson, DBR Kenning & LA Smith (2004) Comparison of a Mechanistic Model for Nucleate Boiling with Experimental Spatio-Temporal Data Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82(A), 1-10   SCI 4. Abstract

[66] K Judd & LA Smith (2004) Indistinguishable States II: The Imperfect Model Scenario. Physica D 196: 224-242. SCI 15. Abstract

[65] MG Altalo & LA Smith (2004) Using ensemble weather forecasts to manage utilities risk, Environmental Finance October 2004, 20: 8-9. Abstract

[64] F Kwasniok & LA Smith (2004) Real-time Construction of Optimized Predictions from Data Streams, Phys.Rev. Lett. 92 (16).  SCI 0. Abstract

[63] PE McSharry and LA Smith (2004) Consistent Nonlinear Dynamics: identifying model inadequacy, Physica D 192: 1-22. SCI 5. Abstract

[62] LA Smith & JA Hansen (2004) Extending the Limits of Forecast Verification with the Minimum Spanning Tree, Mon. Weather Rev. 132 (6): 1522-1528. SCI 17. Abstract

[61] MS Roulston & LA Smith (2004) The Boy Who Cried Wolf Revisited: The Impact of False Alarm Intolerance on Cost-Loss Scenarios, Weather and Forecasting 19 (2): 391-397. SCI 7. Abstract

[60] K Judd, LA Smith & A Weisheimer (2004) Gradient Free Descent: shadowing and state estimation using limited derivative information, Physica D 190 (3-4): 153-166. SCI 11. Abstract

[59] D Orrell & LA Smith (2003) Visualising bifurcations in high dimensional systems: The spectral bifurcation diagram, Int. J. Bif Chaos 13 (10): 3015-3027. SCI 6. Abstract

[58] A Guerrero & LA Smith (2003) Towards Coherent Estimation of the Correlation Dimension, Phys. Lett. A 318 373-379. SCI 5. Abstract

[57] PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2003) Prediction of epileptic seizures: Are non- linear methods relevant? Nature Medicine 9 (3): 241-242 SCI 21. Abstract

[56] LA Smith (2003) Predictability Past Predictability Present. In 2002 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. pg 219-242. ECMWF, Reading, UK. Abstract

[55] PE McSharry, LA Smith and L Tarassenko (2003) Comparison of predictability of epileptic seizures by a linear and a nonlinear method, IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(5), 628-633. SCI 11. Abstract

[54] M S Roulston & LA Smith (2003) Combining Dynamical and Statistical Ensembles, Tellus 55 A, 16-30. SCI 33. Abstract

[53] PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2003) A dynamical model for generating synthetic electrocardiogram signals, IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering 50(3), 289-294. SCI 74. Abstract

[52] MS Roulston, DT Kaplan, J Hardenberg & LA Smith (2003) Using Medium Range Weather Forecasts to Improve the Value of Wind Energy Production, Renewable Energy 29 (4) April 585-602. SCI 16. Abstract

[51] MS Roulston and LA Smith (2002) 'Weather and Seasonal Forecasting' in Climate Risk and the Weather Market pg 115-126 (ed. R.S. Dischel), Risk Books, London. Abstract

[50] PE McSharry, G Clifford, L Tarassenko and LA Smith (2002) A Method for generating an artificial RR tachogram of a typical healthy human over 24-hours, Computers in Cardiology 29 225-228 SCI 9. Abstract

[49] PE McSharry, T He, LA Smith & L Tarassenko (2002) Linear and nonlinear methods for automatic seizure detection in scalp electroencephalogram recordings, Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing, 40 (4): 447-461. SCI 10. Abstract

[48] J von Hardenberg, T Kono, DBR Kenning, PE McSharry & LA Smith (2004) Identification of nucleation site interactions, in International Journal of Heat and Fluid Flow, 25 (2), 298-304.  SCI 3. Abstract

[47] MS Roulston & LA Smith (2002) Evaluating probabilistic forecasts using information theory, Monthly Weather Review 130 6: 1653-1660. SCI 50. Abstract

[46] LA Smith, (2002) What Might We Learn from Climate Forecasts? Proc. National Acad. Sci. USA 4 (99): 2487-2492. SCI 29. Abstract

[45] D Orrell, LA Smith, T Palmer & J Barkmeijer (2001) Model Error in Weather Forecasting, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 8: 357-371. SCI 38. Abstract

[44] JA Hansen & LA Smith (2001) Probabilistic Noise Reduction. Tellus 53 A (5): 585-598. SCI 4. Abstract

[43] I Gilmour, LA Smith & R Buizza (2001) Linear Regime Duration: Is 24 Hours a Long Time in Synoptic Weather Forecasting? J. Atmos. Sci. 58 (22): 3525-3539. SCI 33. Abstract

[42] K Judd & LA Smith (2001) Indistinguishable States I: The Perfect Model Scenario, Physica D 151: 125-141. SCI 26. Abstract

[41] PE McSharry, JH Ellepola, J von Hardenberg, LA Smith, DBR Kenning & K Judd (2002) Spatio-temporal Analysis of Nucleate Pool Boiling: Identification of Nucleation Sites using Non-orthogonal Empirical Functions (NEFs). Int. J. Heat & Mass Transfer 45 (2): 237-253. SCI 9. Abstract

[40] LA Smith (2000) 'Disentangling Uncertainty and Error: On the Predictability of Nonlinear Systems' (PDF) in Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, ed. Alistair I Mees, Boston: Birkhauser, 31-64. SCI 10. Abstract

[39] JA Hansen & LA Smith (2000) The role of Operational Constraints in Selecting Supplementary Observations,  J. Atmos. Sci., 57 (17): 2859-2871. SCI 29. Abstract

[38] LA Smith (2000) Limits to Predictability in 2000 and 2100, in Proceedings of IEEE 2000 Adaptive Systems for Signal Processing, Communications, and Control Symposium, ed. S. Haykin (IEEE, Piscataway), pg 129-134. (Figure 1). Abstract

[37] C Ziehmann, LA Smith & J Kurths (2000), Localized Lyapunov Exponents and the Prediction of Predictability, Phys. Lett. A, 271 (4): 237-251. SCI 25. Abstract

[36] P McSharry & LA Smith (1999) Better nonlinear models from noisy data: Attractors with maximum likelihood, Phys. Rev. Lett 83 (21): 4285-4288. SCI 54. Abstract

[35] LA Smith, C Ziehmann & K Fraedrich (1999) Uncertainty Dynamics and Predictability in Chaotic Systems, Quart. J. Royal Meteorological Soc. 125: 2855-2886. SCI 47. Abstract

[34] C. Ziehmann, L.A. Smith & J. Kurths (1999) The Bootstrap and Lyapunov Exponents in Deterministic Chaos, Physica D, 126 (1-2): 49-59. SCI 18. Abstract 

[33] P McSharry & LA Smith (1998) Just Do It. Reductionism, Modelling and Black-box Forecasting In International Workshop on Advanced Black-Box Techniques for Nonlinear Modeling: Theory and Applications with Time-Series Prediction Competition, edited by J.A.K. Suykens and J. Vandewalle, pp. 106-111, K.U. Leuven, Belgium, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Abstract

[32] LA Smith & I Gilmour (1998) Accountability and internal consistency in ensemble formation. In the Proceedings of the ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, 1997. ECMWF, Reading, UK. Abstract

[31] LA Smith (1997) The Maintenance of Uncertainty. In Proc International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course CXXXIII, pg 177-246, Societ`a Italiana di Fisica, Bologna, Italy. SCI 23. Abstract

[30] MR Allen & LA Smith (1997) Optimal Filtering in Singular Spectrum Analysis, Phys. Lett. A 234 (6): 419-428. SCI 41. Abstract

[29] I Gilmour & LA Smith (1997) Enlightenment in shadows. In Applied nonlinear dynamics and stochastic systems near the millennium, pg 335-340. Eds JB Kadtke and A Bulsara, AIP, New York. Abstract

[28] F Paparella, A Provenzale, LA Smith, C Taricco & R Vio (1997) Local random analogue prediction of nonlinear processes. Phys. Lett. A 235 (3): 233-240. SCI 7. Abstract

[27] MR Allen & LA Smith (1996) Monte Carlo SSA: Detecting irregular oscillations in the presence of coloured noise. J. of Climate 9 (12): 3373-3404. Part 3 SCI 123. Abstract

[26] LA Smith (1995) Accountability and Error in Ensemble Forecasting. In 1995 ECMWF Seminar on Predictability. Vol 1, pg 351-368. ECMWF, Reading. Abstract

[25] J Theiler & LA Smith (1995) Anomalous convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. Physical Review E, 51 (4): 3738-3741. Part B SCI 9. Abstract

[24] LA Smith (1995) Locally Optimized Prediction of Nonlinear Systems: Stochastic and Deterministic. In Chaos and Forecasting, pg 87-108. Ed H Tong, World Scientific, London. (Note this is an extended version of [23] below). Abstract

[23] LA Smith (1994) Local Optimal Prediction: Exploiting strangeness and the variation of sensitivity to initial condition. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. Lond. A, 348 (1688): 371-381. SCI 25. Abstract

[22] LA Smith (1994) Visualising Predictability with Chaotic Ensembles, in Advanced Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures and Implementations, ed FT Luk. SPIE Vol 2296: 293-304. Bellingham, WA. SCI 2. Abstract

[21] C Ziehmann-Schlumbohm, K Fraedrich & LA Smith (1994) Ein internes Vorhersagbarkeits-experiment im Lorenz-Modell. Meteorologische Zeitschrift N.F., 14. Abstract

[20] MR Allen & LA Smith (1994) Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21 (10): 883-886. SCI 68. Abstract

[19] LA Smith (1994) Turbulence in the River Severn: A dynamical systems analysis, in Mixing Transport and the Environment, ed K Beven, PC Chatwin & JH Millbank, pg 383-399, John Wiley & Sons Ltd, London. Abstract

[18] LA Smith (1993) Does a meeting in Santa Fe imply Chaos? in Predicting the Future and Understanding the Past, pg 323-344, Ed A Weigend & N Gersenfeld, SFI Series in Complexity XV, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA. SCI 2. Abstract

[17] LA Smith (1992) Identification and Prediction of Low-Dimensional Dynamics. Physica D 58 (1-4): 50-76. SCI 84. Abstract

[16] MR Allen, PL Read & LA Smith (1992) Temperature time-series. Nature 355 (6362): 686. SCI 21. Abstract

[15] A Provenzale, LA Smith, R Vio & G Murante (1992) Distinguishing Between Low-dimensional Dynamics and Randomness in Measured time series. Physica D 58 (1-4): 31-49. SCI 194. Abstract

[14] LA Smith (1991) Applied Chaos: Quantifying Complex Systems, in Information Dynamics , pg 97-102, Ed. H. Atmanspacher, et al. NATO ASI Series B, Vol 256, Plenum Press, New York. SCI 1. Abstract

[13] LA Smith, K Godfrey, P Fox & K Warwick (1991) A New Technique for Fault detection in Multi-sensor Probes, in Control 91, IEE Publication 332, 1: 1062-1067. Abstract

[12] R Thieberger, EA Spiegel & LA Smith (1990) The Dimensions of Cosmic Fractals, in The Ubiquity of Chaos. Ed Saul Krasner, pg 197-217. American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington DC. SCI 6. Abstract

[11] LA Smith (1989) Quantifying Chaos through Predictive Flows and Maps: Computing Unstable Periodic Orbits, in Quantitative Measures of Complexity, pg 359-366, Ed N Abraham & A Albino. NATO ASI Series B, Vol 208, Plenum Press, New York. SCI 4+. Abstract

[10] LA Smith (1988) Intrinsic Limits on Dimension Calculations. Phys. Lett. A 133 (6): 283-288. SCI 253. Abstract

[9] LA Smith (1987) Lacunarity and Chaos in Nature, PhD Thesis, 263 pp. Columbia University in the City of New York. Abstract

[8] LA Smith & EA Spiegel (1987) Strange Accumulators, in Chaos in Astrophysics, Annals of the New York Academy of Science, 497: 61-65. SCI 2. Abstract

[7] LA Smith, JD Fournier & EA Spiegel (1986) Lacunarity and Intermittency in Fluid Turbulence, Phys. Lett. 114 A (8-9): 465-468. SCI 79. Abstract

[6] LA Smith & EA Spiegel (1985) Pattern Formation by Particles Settling in Viscous Flows, Lect Notes in Phys 230: 306-318, SCI 7. Abstract

[5] LA Smith (1984) Particulate Dispersal in a Time Dependent Flow, in Dynamic Differentiation ed. F.K. Mellor, Woods Hole Institute Technical Report WHOI-84-44, Woods Hole, MA. Abstract

[4] AES Green, K Cross, & LA Smith (1980) Improved Characterization of Ultraviolet Skylight, Photochemistry and Photobiology, 31 (1): 59-65. SCI 252. Abstract

Correspondence and Comments

[3] LA Smith, (1995) A personal overview of nonlinear time-series analysis from a chaos perspective - Comments Scan. J. Stat., 22 (4): 435-437. Abstract

[2] MR Allen, PL Read & LA Smith (1992) Temperature Oscillations. Nature 359 (6397): 679. SCI 12. Abstract

[1] LA Smith, (1992) Comments on the paper of R Smith, Estimating Dimension in Noisy Chaotic Time Series, J. R. Statist. Soc, 54 B (2): 329-352. SCI 4. Abstract

Recent Abstracts

J Broecker, L Clarke, D Kilminster & LA Smith (2005) Scoring probabilistic forecasts

L Clarke, J Broecker, D Kilminster & LA Smith (2005) Do multi-model ensemble forecasts yield added value?

In Production and/or Review

LA Smith, MG Altalo & C Ziehmann (2004) Predictive Distributions from an Ensemble of Forecasts: Electricity Demand Forecasts from Imperfect Weather Models, Physics D (in review, Oct 2004)

D Kilminster & LA Smith (2004) Ignorance as a skill score for probabilistic forecasts and some of its properties Int. J. Forecasting (in review, Nov 2004)

M Roulston & LA. Smith (2004) Weather Roulette. In preparation for Weather, 8 pages

LA Smith & K Judd (2004) Indistinguishable States 3: Parameter Estimation in Structurally Perfect Models. In preparation for Physica D.

R Bishop & LA Smith (2004) Beyond the Shadow Lies Doubt. In preparation for British J. Phil. Sci.

P McSharry & L A Smith (2002) Addressing Model Inadequacy with Cross Pollination in Time Ensembles. Physica D (In preparation) 8 pages.

Encyclopaedia Entries and Technical Reports

LA Smith (2002) Predictability and Chaos in Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences Eds J Holton, J Pyle and J Curry, pg 1777-1785. Academic Press

MS Roulston, C Ziehmann & LA Smith (2001) A Forecast Reliability Index from Ensembles: A Comparison of Methods (PDF). Technical Report Prepared for Deutscher Wetterdienst

LA Smith, M Roulston & J von Hardenburg (2001) End to End Ensemble Forecasting: Towards Evaluating The Economic Value of an Ensemble Prediction System (PDF), Technical Memorandum 336 29 pp. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Road, Reading, UK

Books

A Very Short Introduction to Chaos. Oxford University Press (2007). A contribution to the OUP "A Very Short Introduction" series, focused on chaos and prediction.

Book Reviews and Media Correspondence

"Feeding Frenzy is short of juice" in the Times Higher Education Supplement, Aug 18, 2000. A review of The Predictors by Thomas A. Bass

Rough Survey of how ticks all add up in the Times Higher Education Supplement textbook guide, May 26, 2000. A review of Econophysics by R Mantegna and HE Stanley

“Unproven theories have value”. The Times, Letters to the Editor, November 30, 2007.

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