Public Seminar
Wednesday 20th June 2012, 3pm to 4.30pm, Room NAB.1.07, New Academic Building, LSE
Speaker: Arvind Virmani
Chair: Ehtisham Ahmad
The reforms of the 1980s led to a tripling of India’s per capita growth rate from 1.3% per annum during 1951 to 1979 to about 3.7% per annum during 1980 to 1991. The much more extensive economic reforms of the 1990s doubled the growth potential of the Indian economy between 7% and 7.5% per annum, in terms of per capita GDP. The economy consequently entered a third higher growth phase in the 1990s, though this was not clearly visible in the aggregate data during the 1990s and remained elusive till the mid-2000s (J curve of Growth).
Based on the post war history of economic growth across the world and given the backdrop of the US-Global financial crisis of 2008, Virmani (2009) and Economic Division (2009) warned that higher Indian growth potential does not ensure higher actual growth. Because of the complacency induced by the V shaped recovery in India and across the World, these warnings were barely noticed. Unfortunately the worst fears seem to have come true in 2011-12, with an extended period of high inflation and declining trend in growth.
Given the underlying strength of the Indian economy there is still time to put the economy back on track to a sustained per capita GDP growth rate of 7% to 7.5% (GDP 8.5% to 9%). This requires a removal of the various bottlenecks that have arisen and the stimulation of new drivers of non-inflationary and equitable economic growth. This paper analyses from a policy perspective, the problem and solutions.
Dr Arvind Virmani is currently Executive Director at the IMF and Affiliate Professor, George Mason University (and Distinguished Senior Fellow, School of Public Policy - CEMP, GMU). He has been a senior advisor to the Indian Government, for an unprecedented 25 years, including as Chief Economic Advisor, Ministry of Finance and Principle Advisor, Planning Commission. He has served as a Member and on the Boards of several financial institutions in India. Virmani has also been Chief Executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). His areas of policy research include macroeconomics & growth, international trade & tariffs, credit markets and international relations & global security.
Dr Ehtisham Ahmad| is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the LSE Asia Research Centre.
Additional Information
This event is free and open to all with no ticket required. Entry is on a first come, first served basis. For any queries email arc@lse.ac.uk| or call 020 7955 7615.