All pages with keywords: uncertainty

Uncertainty and ambiguity in environmental economics: conceptual issues

a working paper by Geoffrey Heal, Antony Millner 26 September, 2017

In this paper, the authors’ treatment of uncertainty in environmental applications is motivated by two leading examples: climate change and biodiversity loss. They argue that in these cases uncertainty is sufficiently far-reaching that standard decision-making tools such as expected utility theory may no longer capture important aspects of our uncertainty preferences. Richer models of decision-making, which allow us to express lack of confidence in our information, may be more desirable. read more »


Public lecture | Do we do enough for the future?

Public lecture | Do we do enough for the future?

Public Lecture Ben Groom 2 Feb 2017

LSE Deparment of Geography and Environment and Grantham Research Institute public lecture, introduced and chaired by Dr Ben Groom In this lecture Prof. Gollier will discuss the way one should value and compare … read more »


Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world

a research article by Ajay Gajanan Bhave, Declan Conway, Suraje Dessai, David Stainforth 29 September, 2016

Climate change adaptation is unavoidable, particularly in developing countries where the adaptation deficit is often larger than in developed countries. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches are considered useful for … read more »


Grantham Workshop | Carole Dalin & Daniel Heyen

Grantham Workshop | Carole Dalin & Daniel Heyen

Grantham Workshop Carole Dalin, Daniel Heyen 27 Apr 2016

This week’s Grantham Workshop will feature two speakers from the Grantham Research Institute: Carole Dalin, a Research Officer, will give a presentation entitled “Who is eating up the world’s aquifers? … read more »


How to make the climate change debate more productive

a commentary by Amelia Sharman 18 March, 2016

The climate change debate is a battle of attrition with a habit of getting nasty. Both sides in the debate (climate scientists and those that are sceptical of the science) … read more »


Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review

a research article by David Stainforth 18 September, 2015

The quantification of uncertainty is an increasingly popular topic, with clear importance for climate change policy. However, uncertainty assessments are open to a range of interpretations, each of which may … read more »


Limits to the quantification of local climate change

Limits to the quantification of local climate change

a research article by David Stainforth 16 September, 2015

We demonstrate how the fundamental timescales of anthropogenic climate change limit the identification of societally relevant aspects of changes in precipitation. We show that it is nevertheless possible to extract, … read more »


Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

a research article by David Stainforth 4 September, 2015

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »


Consumption smoothing and the welfare cost of uncertainty

Consumption smoothing and the welfare cost of uncertainty

a working paper by Jonathan Colmer, Yonas Alem 4 September, 2015

When agents are unable to smooth consumption and have distorted beliefs about the likelihood of future income realisations, uncertainty about future states of the world has a direct effect on … read more »


Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

a working paper by Antony Millner, Geoffrey Heal 25 August, 2015

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »


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