All pages with keywords: climate models


An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

a research article by Roman Frigg, Lenny Smith, David Stainforth 7 May, 2015

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »


Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

in the news Nicholas Stern, Simon Dietz 16 June, 2014

Lord Stern says current models do not adequately reflect the science and the impact on global economies The Independent


What do economic models tell us?

a commentary by Dimitri Zenghelis 6 May, 2014

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” – so goes the saying. The same applies to economic modelling. This is not just the trite point that it … read more »


Alice Verweyen and Erica Thompson – Climate Models: some cautionary notes

Alice Verweyen and Erica Thompson – Climate Models: some cautionary notes

Seminar Erica Thompson 26 Jan 2011

Part of the LSE-Imperial Grantham PhD Seminar Series (Michaelmas term). Speakers: Alice Verweyen and Erica Thompson


Simon Buckle – Climate Mitigation: sustainable preferences and cumulative carbon

Seminar 10 Mar 2011

Part of the Climate Change and Environment Seminar Series (Lent term 2011), hosted jointly by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, the Centre for Climate Change … read more »


Professor Leonard Smith – climate Models: Current science and common sense

Professor Leonard Smith – climate Models: Current science and common sense

Public Lecture Lenny Smith 16 Mar 2010

ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Lecture as part of ESRC Festival of Social Science Chair: Professor Nancy Cartwright, professor of philosophy at LSE Speaker: Professor Leonard Smith, … read more »


Incomplete climate models lead to complacency

Incomplete climate models lead to complacency

a commentary by Cameron Hepburn 1 April, 2014

Financial Times – Subscription required


Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate

Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate

a research article by David Stainforth 11 February, 2014

We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data. read more »


Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts

a working paper by Lenny Smith, , Emma Suckling, Falk Niehörster 1 February, 2014

Operational seasonal forecasting centres employ simulation models to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Skill in such forecasts is reflected … read more »


An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

a working paper by Lenny Smith, Emma Suckling 1 February, 2014

While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the … read more »