All pages with keywords: climate models

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

a research article by Rachel James, Richard Washington, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Declan Conway 25 January, 2017

The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and … read more »


Nicholas Stern

Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading

a research article by Nicholas Stern 25 February, 2016

Nicholas Stern calls on scientists, engineers and economists to help policymakers by better modelling the immense risks to future generations, and the potential for action. read more »


Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

a research article by David Stainforth 4 September, 2015

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »


An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

a research article by Roman Frigg, Lenny Smith, David Stainforth 7 May, 2015

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »


Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

in the news Nicholas Stern, Simon Dietz 16 June, 2014

Lord Stern says current models do not adequately reflect the science and the impact on global economies The Independent


What do economic models tell us?

a commentary by Dimitri Zenghelis 6 May, 2014

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” – so goes the saying. The same applies to economic modelling. This is not just the trite point that it … read more »


Professor Leonard Smith – climate Models: Current science and common sense

Professor Leonard Smith – climate Models: Current science and common sense

Public Lecture Lenny Smith 16 Mar 2010

ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Lecture as part of ESRC Festival of Social Science Chair: Professor Nancy Cartwright, professor of philosophy at LSE Speaker: Professor Leonard Smith, … read more »


Incomplete climate models lead to complacency

Incomplete climate models lead to complacency

a commentary by Cameron Hepburn 1 April, 2014

Financial Times – Subscription required


The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09

The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09

a research article by David Stainforth 1 December, 2013

Frigg, R., L.A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth. In: Philosophy of Science, December 2013.


Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming

Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming

a research article by Raphael Calel, David Stainforth, Simon Dietz 21 September, 2013

It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a … read more »