All pages with keywords: climate models
Should climate policy account for ambiguity?
Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »
Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’
Lord Stern says current models do not adequately reflect the science and the impact on global economies The Independent
What do economic models tell us?
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” – so goes the saying. The same applies to economic modelling. This is not just the trite point that it … read more »
Probabilistic skill in ensemble seasonal forecasts
Operational seasonal forecasting centres employ simulation models to make probability forecasts of future conditions on seasonal to annual lead times. Skill in such forecasts is reflected … read more »
An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models
While state-of-the-art models of the Earth’s climate system have improved tremendously over the last twenty years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the … read more »
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09
Frigg, R., L.A. Smith, D. A. Stainforth. In: Philosophy of Science, December 2013.
Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming
It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a … read more »
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