All pages with keywords: climate models

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

a research article by Rachel James, Richard Washington, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Declan Conway 25 January, 2017

The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and … read more »


Climate change, heat stress and labour productivity: A cost methodology for city economies

a working paper by Hélia Costa, Graham Floater, Hans Hooyberghs, Stijn Verbeke, Koen De Ridder 29 July, 2016

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves. Despite this, no comprehensive methodology has been developed to assess the costs of heat stress on city economies either currently or under future … read more »


Nicholas Stern

Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading

a research article by Nicholas Stern 25 February, 2016

Nicholas Stern calls on scientists, engineers and economists to help policymakers by better modelling the immense risks to future generations, and the potential for action. read more »


Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime

Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime

a research article 5 November, 2015

This study aims to evaluate the hydrologic alteration caused by dam construction and climatic changes in a mesoscale river basin, which is prone to both droughts and monsoonal floods. read more »


Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

a research article by David Stainforth 4 September, 2015

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »


Climate and southern Africa’s water–energy–food nexus

Climate and southern Africa’s water–energy–food nexus

a research article by Declan Conway, Carole Dalin, Delphine Deryng 26 August, 2015

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water–energy–food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial … read more »


Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

a working paper by Antony Millner, Geoffrey Heal 25 August, 2015

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »


An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

a research article by Roman Frigg, Lenny Smith, David Stainforth 7 May, 2015

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »


Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

Climate change will ‘cost world far more than estimated’

in the news Nicholas Stern, Simon Dietz 16 June, 2014

Lord Stern says current models do not adequately reflect the science and the impact on global economies The Independent


What do economic models tell us?

a commentary by Dimitri Zenghelis 6 May, 2014

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” – so goes the saying. The same applies to economic modelling. This is not just the trite point that it … read more »


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