All pages with keywords: climate models

Future climate projections for Tanzania

Future climate projections for Tanzania

a policy report by Declan Conway, Neha Mittal, Emma Archer van Garderen, Joanna Pardoe, Martin Todd, Katharine Vincent, Richard Washington 4 November, 2017

This brief provides an overview of future climate change in Tanzania, using results from the latest available climate model simulations. The UMFULA research team of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) programme has analysed 34 Global Climate Models (GCMs) that provide projections for Tanzania to try to distil robust messages and some key trends that may help planning and decision-making. read more »


Future climate projections for Malawi

a policy report by Neha Mittal, Katharine Vincent, Declan Conway, Emma Archer van Garderen, Joanna Pardoe, Martin Todd, Richard Washington, Christian Siderius, David Mkwambisi 27 October, 2017

This brief provides an overview of future climate change in Malawi, using results from the latest available climate model simulations. The UMFULA research team of the Future Climate for Africa … read more »


Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

Characterising half a degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets

a research article by Rachel James, Richard Washington, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Declan Conway 25 January, 2017

The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and … read more »


Climate change, heat stress and labour productivity: A cost methodology for city economies

a working paper by Hélia Costa, Graham Floater, Hans Hooyberghs, Stijn Verbeke, Koen De Ridder 29 July, 2016

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves. Despite this, no comprehensive methodology has been developed to assess the costs of heat stress on city economies either currently or under future … read more »


Nicholas Stern

Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading

a research article by Nicholas Stern 25 February, 2016

Nicholas Stern calls on scientists, engineers and economists to help policymakers by better modelling the immense risks to future generations, and the potential for action. read more »


Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime

Impact of Human Intervention and Climate Change on Natural Flow Regime

a research article 5 November, 2015

This study aims to evaluate the hydrologic alteration caused by dam construction and climatic changes in a mesoscale river basin, which is prone to both droughts and monsoonal floods. read more »


Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

a research article by David Stainforth 4 September, 2015

Model simulations of the next few decades are widely used in assessments of climate change impacts and as guidance for adaptation. Their non-linear nature reveals a level of irreducible uncertainty … read more »


Climate and southern Africa’s water–energy–food nexus

Climate and southern Africa’s water–energy–food nexus

a research article by Declan Conway, Carole Dalin, Delphine Deryng 26 August, 2015

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water–energy–food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial … read more »


Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

Should climate policy account for ambiguity?

a working paper by Antony Millner, Geoffrey Heal 25 August, 2015

Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that … read more »


An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09

a research article by Roman Frigg, Lenny Smith, David Stainforth 7 May, 2015

The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of … read more »


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