Hundreds of people across the UK are likely to be killed by a natural disaster this week, but their deaths will not be the subject of ministerial statements or newspaper reports, even though a failure of government policy is partly responsible.
The heatwave conditions are causing preventable deaths partly because large swaths of the population wrongly believe that extremely hot days are becoming less common.
While the hot weather is not as obviously newsworthy as the recent terrorist attacks or the Grenfell Tower fire, it should be treated as a national emergency that is every bit as serious.
Public Health England warned on Friday before the high temperatures over the weekend that “for some people, such as older people, those with underlying health conditions and those with young children, the summer heat can bring real health risks”.
It drew attention to the Heatwave Plan for England, published in May 2015, noting that there were about 2,000 “excess deaths” during the heatwave in August 2003, with 680 more in summer 2006 and 300 killed in 2009.
The lethalness of heatwaves is often hidden because the total number of deaths is not reported until many months after they have happened.
In its annual report last November on deaths over the previous 12 months, an analysis by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, while there were markedly more deaths during the winter, a spike in casualties was evident on 19 July 2016.
On that date, there were 1,661 deaths recorded in England, compared with the five-year daily average of 1,267. The ONS pointed out that this peak coincided with the hottest day of the year, with maximum temperatures of 31C in some parts of the country.
Public Health England on Monday raised the level of its “heat-health watch” in anticipation of further hot weather this week, with the Met Office forecasting daytime temperatures of more than 30C across parts of the country.
The level-three amber warning, one level below a national emergency, advises people to stay out of the sun, keep homes cool, and check that anyone “at special risk” knows how to cope with the conditions.
However, the Committee on Climate Change has highlighted a worrying lack of understanding of heatwave risks which is increasing the number of people that succumb in hot weather.
The 2014 progress report to parliament by its adaptation sub-committee found that heat contributes to about 2,000 premature deaths each year in the UK, and that this figure could rise to about 7,000 annually in the 2050s due to the impact of climate change and population growth.
It concluded that “the uptake of measures to increase cooling capacity in existing homes is currently very low”, and suggested that this may be because “the public appear to perceive that heatwaves and hot weather have become less common over time”.
It cited research on a representative sample of the UK public who believed that hot weather had become less common during their lifetimes.
The study did not explore the influence of coverage of extreme weather by the UK media. Many national newspapers and broadcasters have downplayed the risks of heatwaves and flooding by amplifying the false claims of climate change sceptics that there has been no increase in extreme weather events.
Nevertheless, the Met Office has indicated that the UK appears to be warming more quickly than the global average and refers to research showing that “the maximum daily temperature and minimum daily temperature in the UK have risen by just over 1C since the 1950s”, adding that “there is a suggestion that the warmest daily temperature extremes are rising faster in summer, whereas the coldest daily temperature extremes are rising faster in winter”.
In its assessment two years ago of the government’s National Adaptation Programme, the Committee on Climate Change warned that “there is low awareness amongst the general public about how the risks from heat are changing”.
It recommended that the updated version of the programme, due to be published in January 2018, “should contain specific actions to increase public awareness of the risks of climate change, with lead responsibility for increasing awareness assigned to a single department”.
However, the government’s response rejected the committee’s advice. Subsequent cuts to the funding for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs – which has lead responsibility for ensuring the nation’s resilience to climate change – and the Environment Agency have eliminated most activities aimed at increasing public awareness of the risks of climate change impacts in the UK.
The last few environment secretaries have largely ignored the importance of climate change adaptation. Will Michael Gove break with the dismal record of his predecessors and try to save lives by raising public awareness about the growing risks of heatwaves and other impacts of climate change?
- Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science.