Wenceslao J. Gonzalez is Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science (University of A Coruña). He is a Full Member of the International Academy for Philosophy of Sciences (AIPS). He has been a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Philosophy of Science (University of Pittsburgh) and a Team Leader of the European Science Foundation program entitled “The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective.”
He has been a visiting researcher at the Universities of St. Andrews, Münster and London (LSE). He has given lectures at the Universities of Pittsburgh, Stanford, Quebec, Helsinki, and Reno (Nevada). The conferences in which he has participated include those organized by the Universities of Uppsala, New South Wales, Bologna, Canterbury (NZ), and Beijing. He has edited 36 volumes on philosophy and methodology of science. He is co-editor of the European Studies in Philosophy of Science.
Dates of Visit: 3rd July 2015 - 31st August 2015
Project Title: Prediction of Financial Markets as Complex Systems. An Analysis in Terms of Structural Mechanisms, Multi-Level Research, and Historicity of the Processes
Project Description:
Complexity is among the central problems for scientific prediction in general, and economic prediction, in particular. Financial markets can be seen as complex systems, because they include structural complexity and dynamic complexity. Both kinds of complexities can be obstacles for reliable economic predictions concerning financial markets. Within this framework of applied science, which is also related to the application of science, the analysis of prediction of financial markets as complex systems will take into account three main aspects:(i) The possible contribution of an explanation in terms of structural mechanisms (Kuhlmann, 2014) to a prediction based on structural mechanisms. (ii) The role of multilevel research strategies for the clarification of the structural complexity. These strategies are common regarding structural complexity of other systems (O’Malley et al., 2014). They are relevant for predictions. (iii) The role of historicity of the processes developed by the dynamic complexity of the financial markets. Prediction of these markets requires taking into account this feature of historicity.