Research

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Publications

Frigg R, Stainforth DA, Smith LA (forthcoming) An Assessment of the Foundational Assumptions in High-Resolution Climate Projections: The Case of UKCP09, Synthese.

Werndl C, Steele K (forthcoming). Model tuning in engineering: Uncovering the logic. The Journal of Strain Analysis for Engineering Design

Bradley R, Stefansson OH (forthcoming) Against Chance Neutrality. Philosophy of Science

Bradley R. (forthcoming) Ellsberg’s Paradox and the Value of Chances. Economics and Philosophy

Bradley R, Stefansson OH (forthcoming). Counterfactual Desirability. British Journal of Philosophy of Science

Bradley R (forthcoming). A Note on Incompleteness, Transitivity and Suzumura Consistency. Festschrift for Nick Baigent, ed. Binder, C., G. Codognato, M. Teschl and Y. Xu ​

Bradley R, Frigg R, Steele K, Thompson E, Werndl C (forthcoming). The Philosophy of Climate Science. in Carlos Galles, Pablo Lorenzano, Eduardo Ortiz, and Hans-Jörg Rheinberger (eds.): History and Philosophy of Science and Technology, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems Volume 4, Isle of Man: Eolss. (A German translation has been commissioned to be published in Simon Lohse und Thomas Reydon (eds.): Die Philosophie der Einzelwissenschaften’, Hamburg: Meiner.)

Werndl C, Frigg R, Thompson E (forthcoming). Observing Climate Change. Philosophy Compass

Werndl C, Frigg R, Thompson E (forthcoming). Modelling Climate Change. Philosophy Compass.

Frigg R, Bradley S, Du H, Smith L A. (forthcoming) Model Error and Ensemble Forecasting: A Cautionary Tale. in: Guichun C. Guo and Chuang Liu (eds.)  Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science Singapore: World Scientific

Voorhoeve A, Fleurbaey M (2015). On the Social and Personal Value of Existence. in Iwao Hirose and Andrew Reisner (ed.) Weighing and Reasoning: Themes from the Work of John Broome. Oxford University Press, 95-109.

Werndl C (2015). On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, doi:10.1093/bjps/axu48. 

Bradley R (2015). Five Questions. in V. Hendriks and D. Pritchard (eds) Social Epistemology: Five Questions  Automatic Press, ISBN: 978-87-92130-53-2

Giaquinta M, Hosni H (2015). Teoria della scelta sociale e Teorema fondamentale dell’economia del benessere: Razionalità coerenza, efficienza e equità , Edizioni della Normale, 2015, ISBN:978-88-7642- 537-0

Flaminio T, Godo L, Hosni H (2015). Coherence in the aggregate: A betting method for belief functions on many-valued events. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, volume 58, pages 71– 86.

2014

Steele K, Bradley S (2014). Should Subjective Probabilities Be Sharp?  Episteme 11(3), 277–289.

Bradley R, List C, Dietrich F (2014). Aggregating Causal Judgments. Philosophy of Science, 81 491-515 DOI: 10.1086/678044

Hosni H, Montagna F. (2014). Stable Non-standard Imprecise  Probabilities. In A. Laurent et al. (Ed.), IPMU 2104, Communications  in Computer and Information Sciences, 444 (pp. 436-445). Springer.  DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-08852-5_45

Flaminio T, Godo L, Hosni H. (2014) On the logical structure of de finetti’s notion of event. Journal of Applied Logic 12(3),  279-301.DOI:10.1016/j.jal.2014.03.001

Frigg R, Bradley S, Du H, Smith LA. (2014) Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science 81(1), 31–59, DOI: 10.1086/674416

Hosni H. (2014). Towards a Bayesian theory of second­ order uncertainty: Lessons from non- standard logics. In S. O. Hansson (Ed.), David Makinson on Classical Methods for Non Classical Problems (pp.195--221). Outstanding Contributions to Logic Volume 3, Springer.

2013

Bradley R, Drechsler M. (2013) Types of Uncertainty.  Erkenntnis. DOI 10.1007/s10670-013-9518-4

Werndl C, Steele K (2013). 'Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration'. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64, 609-635

Bradley S, Steele K. (2013)  Uncertainty, Learning, and the “Problem” of Dilation. (online September 2013),  Erkenntnis DOI: 10.1007/s10670-013-9529-1

Devetag G, Hosni H, Sillari G. (2013) You Better Play 7: Mutual versus Common   Knowledge of Advice in a Weak-­link Experiment. Synthese. 190(8), 1351–1381.  DOI: 10.1007/s11229-012-0177-9

Flaminio T, Godo L, Hosni H. (2013) Zero-probability and coherent betting: A logical point of view. In L. C. van der Gaag (Ed.), ECSQARU 2013, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence.n.7958, 206–217, Springer.

Frigg R, Stainforth DA, Smith LA. (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 80(5), 886–897,  DOI: 10.1086/673892

Frigg R, Bradley S, Machete RL, Smith LA. (2013) Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. in Hanne Anderson, Dennis Dieks, Gregory Wheeler, Wenceslao Gonzalez and Thomas Uebel (eds): New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, 479-491, DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5845-2 

Helgeson C. (2013) The confirmational significance of agreeing measurements. Philosophy of Science. 80(5), 721--732.

Steele K, Werndl C. (2013). Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64, 609-635.  10.1093/bjps/axs036

Talks

November 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Equality or Priority for Possible People?’ Stockholm University Department of Philosophy

September 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Equality or Priority for Possible People?’ National Institutes of Health (USA) Bioethics Center

August 2015. C. Werndl. ‘On Defining Climate and Climate Change’, keynote at the 15th Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Helsinki, Finland

August 2015. C. Helgeson. ‘Likelihood and Confidence in the IPCC's Uncertainty Framework’. Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Helsinki, Finland

July 2015. C. Werndl. ‘Herausforderungen der Klimawissenschaften’, Sommerschule fuer Hochbegabte SchuelerInnen, Obertrum, Austria.

June 2015. C. Werndl. ‘Defining Climate and Climate Change’, Invited speaker at Seminar on the IPPC, Judgement Aggregation and Uncertainty, IHPST, University of Paris 1, France.

May 2015. C. Helgeson. ‘Decision and Climate Change Assessments’ (with R. Bradley, B. Hill) Uncertainty in Climate Science and its Impact on Decision-making, Paris

April 2015. H. Hosni. (invited) ‘A logical perspective on the independence condition in Judgment Aggregation’, LogIC Seminar, Imperial College London

February 2015. T. Rowe. 'Severe Uncertainty and Fairness' Warwick Graduate Conference in Political and Legal Theory

February 2015. C. Werndl. ‘Model Selection Theory Applied to Climate Science: the Need for a More Nuanced View on Use-Novelty’, University of Pittsburgh Climate Conefernce, Centre for Philosophy of Science, Pittsburgh, US.

February 2015. C. Werndl. ‘On Defining Climate and Climate Change’, University of Pittsburgh Annual Lecture Series, Centre for Philosophy of Science, Pittsburgh, US.

February 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Equality or Priority for Possible People?’ Oxford University Moral Philosophy Seminar

February 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Equality or Priority for Possible People?’ Warwick University Law and Political Theory colloquium

January 2015. C. Werndl. ‘Calibration and Confirmation in Climate Science’, Frontiers of Science, Technology and Philosophy, Technical University of Munich, Germany.

January 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Ambiguity Attitudes, Framing and Consistency’ Warwick University Decision Theory Seminar

January 2015. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Equality or Priority for Possible People? University of Amsterdam Political Theory colloquium

2014

December 2014. C. Werndl. ‚Bestaetigung und Schaetzung in der Klimawissenschaft’, Institutskolloquium des Philosophischen Seminars, University of Hamburg, Germany.

December 2014. K. Steele. ‘Robust Decision Making Under Uncertainty’, Invited talk for the Swedish National Food Administration, Uppsala

December 2014. R. Frigg. ‘An Assessment of the Foundational Assumptions in High-Resolution Climate Projections: The Case of UKCP09’, IHPST, Paris

November 2014. R. Frigg and E. Thompson 'Using Evidence to Inform Good Climate Policy Decisions’, PSA 2014, Chicago

November 2014. A. Voorhoeve. ‘Ambiguity Attitudes, Framing and Consistency’ Uppsala University Economics Seminar

November 2014. K. Steele. ‘Climate Change as a Collective Action Problem: Can we still talk justice?’ Talk for the Philosophy Society, University of Uppsala

November 2014. K. Steele. ‘Use-Novelty and Double-Counting in Climate Science: Insights from Competing Theories of Evidence’ (co-author: C. Werndl), symposium presentation at the Philosophy of Science Association Meeting, Chicago

November 2014. C. Werndl. ‘Model Selection Theory and Cross-Validation: The Need for a More Nuanced View on Use-Novelty’, PSA: Philosophy of Science Association Meeting, Chicago, US, Symposium on Climate Science

November 2014. T. Rowe. 'Severe Uncertainty and Fairness' at the LSE Philosophy PhD Seminar

November 2014. H. Hosni. (invited) ‘Is probability the measure of uncertainty?’ (w. Tommaso Flaminio), Logics for Social Behaviour, Lorenz Center, Leiden

November 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Relational Belief and Awareness’, Keynote lecture, Synthese workshop on Conceptions of Belief, UVA Amsterdam

November 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Learning from Others’, PSA 2014, Chicago

November 2014. R. Frigg ‘Rethinking Boltzmannian Equilibrium’, PSA 2014, Chicago

October 2014. R. Frigg. 'Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, London Public Library, London Ontario 

October 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Local High-Resolution Climate Projections: Why a Multi-Model Approach Doesn’t Help’, Multi-Model Approaches in he Sciences, Boston Colloquium for Philosophy of Science, Boston University

October 2014. C. Werndl. ‘On Defining Climate and Climate Change’, keynote at the Knowledge and Models in Climate Science: Philosophical, Historical and Scientific Perspectives, Rotman Institute of Philosophy, London Ontario, Canada

October 2014. K. Steele. ‘Climate Change as a Collective Action Problem: Can we still talk justice?’ Philosophy Colloquium Seminar, KTH, Stockholm

October 2014. K. Steele. ‘On Collective Responsibility’, Colloquium Seminar, Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Uppsala

September 2014. H. Hosni. ‘Depth-bounded Probability Logic: A preliminary investigation’ , Argumentation, Rationality and Decision, Imperial College London

September 2014. H. Hosni. (invited) ‘Uncertain reasoning: from applications to foundations’. Interdisciplinary Techniques To Reduce Uncertainty In The Sciences, Middlesex University, London

September 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Hypothetical Reasoning in Decision Making’, Rationality, Decision-Making and Argumentation, Imperial College, London

September 2014. R. Frigg. 'The Science of Climate Change: A Three-Part Crash Course', 3 lectures, The Rotman Institute,  University of Western Ontario, London Ontario

July 2014. C. Werndl. ‘On Defining Climate and Climate Change’, British Society for the Philosophy of Science Annual Conference, Cambridge, UK.

July 2014. K. Steele. ‘Philosophy of Climate Science’, Invited speaker at Summer School on Mathematical Philosophy for Female Students, Munich, July 2014

July 2014. K. Steele. ‘The Use-Novelty Criterion and Model Selection Methods’ Invited speaker at Trends in Logic 2014 Conference, Ghent

July 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Bolker-Jeffrey Decision Theory’, Games and Decisions, Scuola Normale Superiore, Centro de Ricerca Matematica, Pisa

July 2014. H. Hosni. ‘Stable Non-standard Imprecise Probabilities’. IPMU 2014, Montpellier

July 2014. H. Hosni. ‘Possibilistic Expectation in the selection of Multiple Nash Equilibria’, LOFT 2014, Bergen

June 2014. R. Frigg. ‘How Not to Make Decisions with Computer Simulations’ Keynote Lecture at the 'Third International Workshop on Validation of Computational Mechanics Models’ (EC-FP7 Project VANESSA), Munich

June 2014. R. Frigg. (public lecture) ‘Evidence Based Policy in the Face of Uncertainty’, Plenary Lecture, Understanding Risk Forum, organised by the Worldbank, London ExCeL

June 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Evidence Based Policy for Local Adaptation’, Conference in Honour of Nancy Cartwright’s 70 Birthday, University of Durham

June 2014. K. Steele. ‘The Use-Novelty Criterion and Model Selection Methods’ keynote at the Third Reasoning Club Conference, Kent

June 2014. K. Steele. ‘The Use-Novelty Criterion and Model Selection Methods’ British Society for the Philosophy of Science seminar

June 2014. C. Werndl. ‚Evidenz und Besttigung in der Klimawissenschaft’, Departmental Seminar, University of Goettingen, Germany.

June 2014. C. Werndl. ‘Use-Novelty and Double-Counting in Climate Science: New Insights from Model Selection Theory’, Philosophy of Science Seminar, University of Bristol, UK.

May 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Ellsberg’s Paradox and the Value of Chances’, Vanderbilt University

May 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Counterfactuals and Chances’, Michigan, Ann Arbor

May 2014. K. Steele. ‘Diachronic Dutch Book Arguments’, Invited speaker at Rationality, Money Pumps and Other Picturesque Devices workshop, Paris

May 2014. K. Steele. ‘Does Collective Responsibility Have a Point?’ Vanderbilt Rational Choice and Philosophy Conference

May 2014. C. Werndl. ‘Climate Science, Evidence and Double-Counting’, Philosophy Colloquium and History and Philosophy of Science Seminar, Aberdeen, UK.

April 2014. C. Werndl. ‘Confirmation and Calibration in Climate Science’, Rotman Institute of Philosophy Seminar Series, London Ontario, Canada.

April 2014. C. Werndl. ‚Bestaetigung und Schaetzung von Parametern in der Klimawissenschaft’, Philosophy Lectures, University of Vienna, Austria

March 2014. R. Bradley. ‘Managing Severe Uncertainty’, RCUK workshop on Risk.

March 2014. H. Hosni. (invited) ‘Rethinking the norms of rational belief and decision’, Philosophy Departmental Seminar, University of Kent

February 2014. C. Werndl. 'On Defining Climate and Climate Change', Managing Severe Uncertainty  Meeting, Centre for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, London, UK.

February 2014. H. Hosni. ‘Rethinking Uncertainty: Some Key Questions’, in 35th Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory Graded logical approaches and their applications, Linz

January 2014. C. Werndl. 'On Defining Climate and Climate Change', Centre for Humanities Engaging  Science and Society (CHESS) Seminar Series, Durham, UK.

January  2014. C. Werndl. 'Definitions of Climate and Climate Change', Geophysical and Fluid  Dynamics Seminar Series, University of Oxford, UK.

January 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Chaos Beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural Model Error’, Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig Maximilians Universität München. 

January 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentice’, SimTech Colloquium, University of Stuttgart, Germany.

2013

November 2013. R. Bradley. Living With Environmental Change Annual Conference: Decision-Making in the Twilight of Uncertainty, Aston University of Birmingham. 

November, 2013. C. Werndl. 'What constitutes evidence and its role in calibration and confirmation',  keynote speaker at the Second International Workshop on Validation of Computational  Mechanics Models, the British Museum, London.

October 2013. C. Werndl. 'Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration', Leeds History and  Philosophy of Science Seminar, Leeds, UK.

October 2013. A. Voorhoeve. 'Ambiguity Aversion, the Hurwicz Criterion, and the Principle of Insufficient Reason' presented at (1) LSE Behavioural Economics Seminar and (2) LSE Choice Group (December, 2013).

October 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of his Apprentices’, Probabilistic Modelling in Science and Philosophy, University of Berne, Switzerland.

September 2013. R. Bradley. 'Ellsberg’s Paradox and the Value of Chances', Erasmus University, Rotterdam.

September 2013. R. Frigg. Sole Lecturer in the first LSE-Tsinghua Workshop for Philosophy of Social Science on the topic ‘Evidence and Policy: The Case of Climate Change’, 5 Lectures, Tsinghua University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘What Do We Owe to Future Generations? Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, Renmin University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘What Do We Owe to Future Generations? Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, China Agricultural University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Climate Change and Uncertainty: Implications for Policy’, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices’, Fudan University, Shanghai.

July 2013. R. Bradley. 'Revisiting Ellsberg’s Paradox', Games and Decisions, Scuola Normale Superiore, Centro de Ricerca Matematica.

July 2013. R Frigg. Main lecturer in the Vienna International Summer University 2013: Climate Studies. 5 lectures on different aspects of climate change.

July 2013. H. Hosni. 'Zero­ probability and coherent betting: a logical point of view '(with T. Flaminio and L. Godo), The  12th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, Utrecht. Shortlisted for the conference Best paper award. 

June, 2013. H. Hosni. 'Possibilistic mixed­ strategies in the selection of multiple Nash equilibria' (with E. Marchioni)  Decisions, Games & Logic, KTH Stockholm (Sweden).

May 2013. H Hosni. 'The logical structure of de Finetti’s notion of event', Decision Theory Seminar, Cambridge.

May, 2013. C. Werndl.  'On Data Used by Models in Climate Science', keynote speaker at the Dutch  Society for the Philosophy of Science Conference, the Netherlands.

March 2013. H. Hosni. 'Equilibrium Selection in Coordination Games Using the Sugeno Integral' (with E. Marchioni),  Linz Seminar on Non­Classical Measures and Integrals, Linz.

February 2013. C. Werndl. 'The Problem of Double-Counting Evidence Illustrated by Climate  Science', Cambridge Philosophy of Science Seminar, University of Cambridge.

February 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentice’, University of Southampton.


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