Research

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Publications

Voorhoeve A, Fleurbaey M. (forthcoming) On the social and personal value of existence. in:  Iwao Hirose and Andrew Reisner (eds.) Weighing and Reasoning. OUP, 2015

Werndl C. (forthcoming). On Defining Climate and Climate Change. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

Bradley S, Steele K. (forthcoming) Should subjective probabilities be sharp? Episteme.

Frigg R, Bradley S, Du H, Smith L A. (forthcoming) Model Error and Ensemble Forecasting: A Cautionary Tale. in: Guichun C. Guo and Chuang Liu (eds.) Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science Singapore: World Scientific

Hosni H, Montagna F. (2014). Stable Non-standard Imprecise Probabilities. In A. Laurent et al. (Ed.), IPMU 2104, Communications  in Computer and Information Sciences, 444 (pp. 436-445). Springer.  DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-08852-5_45

Flaminio T, Godo L, Hosni H. (2014) On the logical structure of de finetti’s notion of event. Journal of Applied Logic 12(3),  279-301.DOI:10.1016/j.jal.2014.03.001

Frigg R, Bradley S, Du H, Smith LA. (2014) Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science 81(1), 31–59, DOI: 10.1086/674416

Hosni H. (2014). Towards a Bayesian theory of second­ order uncertainty: Lessons from non- standard logics. In S. O. Hansson (Ed.), David Makinson on Classical Methods for Non Classical Problems (pp.195--221). Outstanding Contributions to Logic Volume 3, Springer.

Bradley R, Drechsler M. (2013) Types of Uncertainty.  Erkenntnis. DOI 10.1007/s10670-013-9518-4

Bradley S, Steele K. (2013)  Uncertainty, Learning, and the “Problem” of Dilation. (online September 2013),  Erkenntnis DOI: 10.1007/s10670-013-9529-1

Devetag G, Hosni H, Sillari G. (2013) You Better Play 7: Mutual versus Common   Knowledge of Advice in a Weak-­link Experiment. Synthese. 190(8), 1351–1381.  DOI: 10.1007/s11229-012-0177-9

Flaminio T, Godo L, Hosni H. (2013) Zero-probability and coherent betting: A logical point of view. In L. C. van der Gaag (Ed.), ECSQARU 2013, Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence.n.7958, 206–217, Springer.

Frigg R, Stainforth DA, Smith LA. (2013) The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 80(5), 886–897,  DOI: 10.1086/673892

Frigg R, Bradley S, Machete RL, Smith LA. (2013) Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. in Hanne Anderson, Dennis Dieks, Gregory Wheeler, Wenceslao Gonzalez and Thomas Uebel (eds): New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. Berlin and New York: Springer, 479-491, DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5845-2 

Helgeson C. (2013) The confirmational significance of agreeing measurements. Philosophy of Science. 80(5), 721--732.

Steele K, Werndl C. (2013). Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64, 609-635.  10.1093/bjps/axs036

Talks

November 2014. R. Frigg and E. Thompson 'Using Evidence to Inform Good Climate Policy Decisions’, PSA 2014, Chicago

October 2014. R. Frigg. 'Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, London Public Library, London Ontario 

October 2014. R. Frigg. 'Local High-Resolution Climate Projections: Why a Multi-Model Approach Doesn't Help', Multi-Model Approaches in the Sciences, Boston Colloquium for Philosophy of Science, Boston University

September 2014. R. Frigg. 'The Science of Climate Change: A Three-Part Crash Course', 3 lectures, The Rotman Institute,  University of Western Ontario, London Ontario

June 2014. R. Frigg. 'Evidence Based Policy in the Face of Uncertainty’, plenary lecture, Understanding Risk Forum, organised by the Worldbank, London ExCeL

June 2014. R. Frigg. 'How Not to Make Decisions with Computer Simulations' Keynote Lecture at the Third International Workshop on Validation of Computational Mechanics Models (EC-FP7 Project VANESSA), Munich. 

June 2014. C. Werndl. 'Evidenz und Bestaetigung in der Klimawissenschaft', Departmental Seminar,  University of Goettingen, Germany.

May 2014. C. Werndl. 'Climate Science, Evidence and Double-Counting', Philosophy Colloquium  and History and Philosophy of Science Seminar, Aberdeen, UK

April 2014. C. Werndl. 'Confirmation and Calibration in Climate Science', Rotman Institute of  Philosophy Seminar Series, London Ontario, Canada.

April 2014. C. Werndl. 'Bestaetigung und Schaetzung von Parametern in der  Klimawissenschaft', Philosophy Lectures, University of Vienna, Austria.

March 2014. H. Hosni. 'Rethinking the norms of rational belief and decision', Philosophy Departmental Seminar,  University of Kent.

February 2014. C. Werndl. 'On Defining Climate and Climate Change', Managing Severe Uncertainty  Meeting, Centre for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, London, UK.

January 2014. C. Werndl. 'On Defining Climate and Climate Change', Centre for Humanities Engaging  Science and Society (CHESS) Seminar Series, Durham, UK.

January  2014. C. Werndl. 'Definitions of Climate and Climate Change', Geophysical and Fluid  Dynamics Seminar Series, University of Oxford, UK.

January 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Chaos Beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural Model Error’, Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig Maximilians Universität München. 

January 2014. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentice’, SimTech Colloquium, University of Stuttgart, Germany.

November 2013. R. Bradley. Living With Environmental Change Annual Conference: Decision-Making in the Twilight of Uncertainty, Aston University of Birmingham. 

November, 2013. C. Werndl. 'What constitutes evidence and its role in calibration and confirmation',  keynote speaker at the Second International Workshop on Validation of Computational  Mechanics Models, the British Museum, London.

October 2013. C. Werndl. 'Climate Models, Confirmation and Calibration', Leeds History and  Philosophy of Science Seminar, Leeds, UK.

October 2013. A. Voorhoeve. 'Ambiguity Aversion, the Hurwicz Criterion, and the Principle of Insufficient Reason' presented at (1) LSE Behavioural Economics Seminar and (2) LSE Choice Group (December, 2013).

October 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of his Apprentices’, Probabilistic Modelling in Science and Philosophy, University of Berne, Switzerland.

September 2013. R. Bradley. 'Ellsberg’s Paradox and the Value of Chances', Erasmus University, Rotterdam.

September 2013. R. Frigg. Sole Lecturer in the first LSE-Tsinghua Workshop for Philosophy of Social Science on the topic ‘Evidence and Policy: The Case of Climate Change’, 5 Lectures, Tsinghua University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘What Do We Owe to Future Generations? Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, Renmin University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘What Do We Owe to Future Generations? Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice’, China Agricultural University, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Climate Change and Uncertainty: Implications for Policy’, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing.

September 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices’, Fudan University, Shanghai.

July 2013. R. Bradley. 'Revisiting Ellsberg’s Paradox', Games and Decisions, Scuola Normale Superiore, Centro de Ricerca Matematica.

July 2013. R Frigg. Main lecturer in the Vienna International Summer University 2013: Climate Studies. 5 lectures on different aspects of climate change.

July 2013. H. Hosni. 'Zero­ probability and coherent betting: a logical point of view '(with T. Flaminio and L. Godo), The  12th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, Utrecht. Shortlisted for the conference Best paper award. 

June, 2013. H. Hosni. 'Possibilistic mixed­ strategies in the selection of multiple Nash equilibria' (with E. Marchioni)  Decisions, Games & Logic, KTH Stockholm (Sweden).

May 2013. H Hosni. 'The logical structure of de Finetti’s notion of event', Decision Theory Seminar, Cambridge.

May, 2013. C. Werndl.  'On Data Used by Models in Climate Science', keynote speaker at the Dutch  Society for the Philosophy of Science Conference, the Netherlands.

March 2013. H. Hosni. 'Equilibrium Selection in Coordination Games Using the Sugeno Integral' (with E. Marchioni),  Linz Seminar on Non­Classical Measures and Integrals, Linz.

February 2013. C. Werndl. 'The Problem of Double-Counting Evidence Illustrated by Climate  Science', Cambridge Philosophy of Science Seminar, University of Cambridge.

February 2013. R. Frigg. ‘Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentice’, University of Southampton.


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