Professor Leonard Smith is Director for the Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS). He received his undergraduate degree in "Physics Mathematics and Computer Science" from the University of Florida and a PhD in Physics at Columbia University (USA) in 1987. He has held visiting or fixed term research positions at Cambridge (UK), École Normale Supérieure (France), Warwick (UK) and Potsdam University (Germany). Since 1992 he has been a Senior Research Fellow (mathematics) at Pembroke College and Research Associate, Mathematics Institute, University of Oxford (UK) and also became a Professor of Statistics (Research) at LSE in October 2004. He has held grants funded by many bodies including ONR (US Office of Naval Research) and NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as well as from Australia, the European Commission and the UK Research Councils. Two successful projects - DIME (Direct and Inverse Modelling in End-to-End Environmental Estimation) and REMIND (Real-time Modelling of Nonlinear Data-streams) - were funded under the UK EPSRC Maths Faraday program, and a recent project NAPSTER (Nonlinear Analysis and Prediction Statistics from Time Series and Ensemble forecast Realizations) is a UK NERC Knowledge Transfer grant. Professor Smith was active in the formation of strategy for THORPEX (he was co-author of the Socio-Economic Impacts Chapter) and the original experimental design(s) of climateprediction.net. He has supervised doctoral students in departments of physics and engineering as well as mathematics and statistics. His interest in the public understanding of science led to a Selby Fellowship from the Australian Academy of Sciences, and a book A Very Short Introduction to Chaos, published by OUP. In recognition of his contributions to mathematically-coherent user-relevant developments in meteorology, the Royal Meteorological Society awarded Professor Smith its Fitzroy Prize in 2003. Professor Smith is currently a member of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) and a member of the Smith Institute's Scientific Committee.
Further details: Homepage LSE Experts Publications
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01D, +44 (0) 20 7955 7626, Email
Dr Pauline Barrieu, Co-Director of CATS, is a Reader in the Department of Statistics at LSE. Her research interests include: Illiquid and incomplete financial markets; Real options; Contract designing; Environmental economics; Risk measures.
Further details: Staff page LSE Experts
Contact details: Room Col6.03, +44 (0) 20 7955 6016, Email
Dr Roman Frigg, Co-Director of CATS, is a Reader in Philosophy in the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, and Deputy Director of the Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science (CPNSS). His research addresses issues in both general philosophy of science and philosophy of physics.
Contact details: Room T501A, +44 (0) 20 7955 7182, Email Homepage
Professor Henry Wynn, Chair of CATS, is Professor of Statistics at LSE. He was Convenor (Head) of the department from 2003-2006. He leads a research group: the Decision Support and Risk Group, well supported by research grants, particularly from the EU. He was (2000-2005) part-time Scientific co-Director of EURANDOM, the international stochastics institute attached to Eindhoven Technical University (TUE), in the Netherlands. He was recently appointed Chair of the Scientific Board of the new Norwegian statistical research centre, Statistics for Innovation (sfi)2.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01E, +44 (0) 20 7955 6116, Email Homepage
Dr Hailiang Du is a Research Officer in CATS, working on the Munich Re programme 'Evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector'. He obtained his PhD in Statistics in June 2009. His main research was on data assimilation and parameter estimation for deterministic nonlinear systems. He was also involved in the ENSEMBLES project and focused on evaluating and combining multi seasonal model outputs. He is currently working on real time series forecasting and interpreting model output for decision maker. His research interests are nonlinear time series analysis, parameter estimation, forecast interpretation.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01C, +44 (0) 20 7955 7079, Email
Dr Ofer Engel is a Research Officer in CATS, currently working on the CELSIUS project where he is studying facilitators and barriers for large scale district heating and cooling projects in urban settings. Ofer is interested in Social Network Analysis, Social Mechanisms, Democratic Processes, Technology in Organizations and Organization theories. He has completed his PhD in Information Systems and Organizations under Carsten Sørensen and Peter Abell at LSE before joining CATS in 2013.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01 Email
Dr Ana Lopez is a Research Officer, with expertise in probabilistic climate change projections and their use in the quantification of future impacts and adaptation to climate change. Her previous experience includes research in theoretical physics in different universities in USA, Argentina and UK, and more recently as a Tyndall Research Fellow at Oxford University, where she explored different approaches to identify the difficulties and potentialities of using large ensembles of climate models to project impacts of climate change, quantify their uncertainty, and extract robust and relevant information to develop adaptation pathways in different systems, with a focus on water resource management and biodiversity. Her research interests include climate model validation and evaluation, predictability measures and limits to predictability, temporal and spatial limits for impacts relevant climate model information, vulnerability approaches to mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and the intersection between climate science and decision making under deep uncertainty.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01, +44 (0) 20 7955 5442, Email
Dr Nicola Ranger is a Research Fellow within the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. Her research interests include decision-making using uncertain climate model information, quantifying risks from extreme events and the role of insurance in adaptation. She has come to LSE from the catastrophe modelling firm, Risk Management Solutions, where she worked on climate change implications for the insurance industry, and previous to this held positions as a scientific advisor and policy analyst for the 'Climate, Energy and Ozone: Science and Analysis' division of Defra (now part of DECC) and on the 'Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change' at HM Treasury. She holds a PhD in Atmospheric Physics from Imperial College London and a first class honours degree in Physics from the University of Warwick.
Contact details: Tower 3, 10.01A, +44 (0) 20 7955 5429, Email
Dr Ralph Rayner is a Professorial Research Fellow with CATS. He is an oceanographer with more than 25 years experience of the provision of consultancy services to the maritime industries and to government agencies concerned with the marine environment. He currently coordinates industry involvement in ocean observations on behalf of the US Federal Interagency Ocean Observation Committee and chairs the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Global Ocean Observing System Scientific Steering Committee. Ralph works at Board level with a number of specialist ocean science and technology businesses in the UK and the United States; is a Vice President of the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology (IMarEST); a member of the Council of the Society for Underwater Technology and an Executive Council member of the Association of Marine Scientific Industries. He contributes to a number of international research programmes concerned with understanding and predicting the ocean environment and has authored numerous marine scientific papers and reports as well as contributing to a number of books on ocean science and technology.
Contact details: Email Homepage
Dr David Stainforth is a Senior Research Fellow in the Grantham Research Institute. He is a physicist by training and has many years experience of climate modelling. While a researcher at Oxford University he co-founded and was chief scientist of the climateprediction.net project, the world's largest climate modelling experiment. He has been both a NERC Research Fellow and a Tyndall Research Fellow at Oxford University. His current research interests focus on how we can extract robust and useful information about future climate, and climate related phenomena, from modelling experiments. This includes issues of how to design climate modelling experiments and how to link climate science to real-world decision making in such a way as to be of value to industry, policy makers and wider society.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01D, +44 (0) 20 7106 7622, Email Homepage
Dr Emma Suckling is a Research Officer in CATS. Her research interests include developing informative forecast systems for the EQUIP project, which brings together climate modelling, statistical modelling and impacts communities to deliver risk-based prediction for decision making in the face of climate variability and change. She is a physicist by training, having pursued both her undergraduate degree and a PhD in theoretical nuclear physics at the University of Surrey, before joining CATS in 2010.
Contact details: Tower 1, 11.01B, +44 (0) 20 7955 7292, Email
Dr Swenja Surminski is a Senior Research Fellow in CCCEP/ CATS with focus on the Munich Re programme. She was previously Adviser, Climate Change, at the Association of British Insurers, advising the ABI on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Key areas of work are climate impacts, mitigation policies, and the role of insurance in the climate change context. She has co-ordinated the ABI's response to the 2007 summer floods in the UK and sits on various research steering groups, guiding the knowledge exchange between climate scientist and the insurance industry. She is involved in several governmental working groups, representing the views of the industry. Swenja is a member of the Management Committee of the industry's ClimateWise initiative, of the European Insurance Industry Climate Change Taskforce (CEA) and of the London Climate Change Partnership Steering Group. She has been advising on climate change risks at UN, EU and UK level and is the author of several papers on these topics. Prior to taking up this role in April 2007, Swenja was working in the Risk Management division of insurance broker Marsh McLennon and in the Geoscience Team at Munich Reinsurance Company. Swenja was a Fulbright Scholar in the US, studying Environmental Economics and International Relations at the University of New Hampshire. Swenja received a PhD in Economics/Political Science from Hamburg University for her work on 'Climate Change and the Insurance Industry' in 2000.
Contact details: Email
Dr Erica Thompson is a Research Officer working on the Munich Re Programme. Her research interests focus on how to identify meaningful and useful projections of future climate, how different types of model output can be used to inform these projections, and how to think about uncertainty. She looked at some of these questions in the context of North Atlantic storms for her PhD at Imperial College. Her background is in the physical sciences, having studied physics and mathematics at Cambridge University. Erica has also worked for the UK Energy Research Centre on an assessment of global oil depletion and for the Grantham Institute at Imperial College as a research assistant in climate policy; she is also interested in climate and energy policy and the role of scientific advice in policy-making.
Contact details: Email Homepage