2-7 August - Leonard Smith will be giving an invited talk at JSM2014, Boston, entitled 'Statistical Good Practice when the Best Available Model is Not Thought Adequate for Purpose', and is also an invited co-author for a panel discussion entitled 'Treatment of uncertainty in climate change assessments'. Abstract.
31 March-3 April - Leonard Smith has been invited to give a talk at the SIAM Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Savannah, Georgia, USA. The talk will be entitled 'Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation and the Roles of Uncertainty in Multi-Model Forecasting'. Abstract.
30 March-4 April - Nick Watkins will be giving a presentation at the forthcoming German Physical Society meeting, Dresden, entitled 'On the surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, and its application to extreme bursts in time series from natural complex systems', and a poster entitled 'Bayesian Analysis of Non-Gaussian Long-Range Dependent Processes'.
11 March - Leonard Smith will be speaking at the CPNSS Workshop 'Rethinking Theory Construction in Social Science', LSE.
10-12 March - David Stainforth will be giving two talks: 'Mapping observed adaptation - relevant changes in locate climate' and 'Quantifying climate science uncertainty: from model ensembles to expert elicitation,' at the Adaptation Frontiers Conference, Lisbon.
10 March - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'How to make decisions about future water when there is still so much we do not know?', University of Lausanne, Switzerland.
6 March - David Stainforth was on a panel at the 'Rhyme and Reason: reflections on climate change' event, LSE.
13-17 February - Leonard Smith spoke at the AAAS Annual Meeting 2014, Chicago. His talk was entitled: 'Confounding Solid Science and Uncertain Modelling: Improving Climate Policy Modelling'.
21 January - Keith Beven gave a talk on 'Observational Uncertainties' at the NERC PURE CREDIBLE/RACER Consortium Meeting.
10 January - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Chaos Beyond the Butterfly Effect: The Poison Pill of Structural Model Error', Center for Advanced Studies, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
9 January - Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'Epistemic Uncertainty and Environmental Model' at the Glasgow NERC workshop: Statistics for Environmental Evaluation: Quantifying the environment'.
8 January - Nick Watkins gave a talk on 'Some work in progress on bursts in complex systems', Applied Mathematics Informal Seminar, Mathematics Department, UIT, Tromso, Norway.
8 January - Roman Frigg gave an invited lecture on 'Laplace's Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices', SimTech Colloquium, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
Erica Thompson gave an invited seminar to the Statistics Department of Queen Mary, University of London on "Statistical challenges in climate research', 21 November 2013.
Erica Thompson gave an invited talk at 'The roles of climate models: epistemic, ethical and socio-political perspectives' Conference, Eindhoven, 1 November 2013.
Nick Watkins gave an invited seminar on 'The surprising robustness of the surplus run length ratio formula, and its application to bursts from natural complex systems' at MPIPKS, Dresden, 17 December 2013.
Leonard Smith and David Stainforth attended the '(Re)Thinking National Climate Scenarios' Workshop, Reading, 16-18 December 2013. Leonard Smith gave a talk on '(Pre)Thinking National Science Contracts which Request Science Beyond the Pale' and David Stainforth gave a talk entitled 'Painting Pictures of the Future.'
Leonard Smith was invited to give the Charney Lecture at the AGU Fall Meeting 2013, San Francisco, 9-13 December 2013. The lecture was entitled: 'Predictability, Probability(s) and Physical Insight'. Abstract. For a list of other CATS abstracts see CATS at AGU 2013.
Keith Beven gave a keynote talk on 'On Uncertainty and Probability in Predicting Natural Hazard Risks using Models' to the ecorisQ association General Assembly 2013, Geneva, 6 December 2013.
Leonard Smith was invited to participate in a limited two-day workshop assessing uncertainties for extrapolations, Las Vegas, 3-4 December 2013. The workshop goal was to flesh out principles and approaches for quantifying uncertainty in extrapolative, model-based predictions, and included a field trip to the Nevada National Security Site.
Keith Beven gave an invited talk on 'Hazard, risk and epistemic error: examples from floods and climate change' to the Centre for Natural Disaster Studies Annual Academy Meeting, Uppsala, Sweden, 29 November 2013.
Erica Thompson gave an invited seminar on 'Statistical challenges in climate research' to the Statistics Department of Queen Mary, University of London, 21 November 2013.
Erica Thompson gave an invited talk at 'The roles of climate models: epistemic, ethical, and socio-political perspectives' Workshop, Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands, 1 November 2013.
Leonard Smith participated in 'The roles of Climate Models: epistemic, ethical and socio-political perspectives' Workshop, Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands, 31 October-1 November 2013 .
Jim Baker gave a presentation on the science of near-term climate extremes at a symposium on 'Rising Temperatures and Emerging Threats: the Intersection of Climate Change and National Security in the 21st Century', Vermont Law School in South Royalton, Vermont, 25 October 2013. The proceedings will be published in the Vermont Journal of Environmental Law later in the year.
Keith Beven gave the European Geophysical Society Leonardo Lecture, Greece, 17 October 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk at the workshop ‘The role of oceans in climate uncertainty’ at the Banff International Research Station (BIRS), 6-11 October 2013. His talk was entitled 'Types of Uncertainty, Kinds of Probability, and (Re)Designing Climate Simulation from Scratch.'
Keith Beven gave a Benchmarks in Hydrology seminar and workshop on uncertainty estimation for environmental models, University of Saskatoon, 4 October 2013.
Keith Beven gave a keynote address at GeoMontreal, 29 September-3 October 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk 'On the Use and Abuse (and rational interpretation) of Probability Forecasts' at the 'Forecasting, Monitoring, Controlling: Dealing with a dynamic world' workshop, UCL, 19-20 September 2013. Erica Thompson presented a talk on 'The Hawkmoth Effect in forecasting, monitoring and controlling complex dynamic systems.' Abstracts.
Nick Watkins spoke at an International Space Science Institute Workshop on 'Self-organized criticality and turbulence', Bern, Switzerland, 16-20 September 2013.
Ewelina Sienkiewicz presented a poster on 'How to quantify the predictability of a chaotic system' at the NCAS Climate Modelling Summer School, Oxford, 8-20 September 2013.
Leonard Smith gave a plenary talk at the NERC PURE Associates workshop, Oxford, 10 September 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk at the SUMO Summer School of the Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Ohrid, Macedonia, 2-7 September 2013. http://www.sumoproject.eu. His talk was entitled 'Aims and Means of Supermodeling by Cross-Pollination in Time.'
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk at the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly, Switzerland, 8-12 July 2013. His talk was on 'Dynamic probabilities, mature probabilities, and the links between data assimilation and ensemble forecasting in actual decision support'. Abstract.
Nick Watkins spoke at the CliMathNet Conference, 1-5 July 2013. His talk was on 'Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans'. Abstract.
Reason Machete gave a talk entitled "Defective Probabilistic Forecasts: Comforting the perplexed' at the 26th European Conference on Operational Research: The Forecasting Stream, Rome, 1-4 July 2013.
Pauline Barrieu gave a plenary lecture at the 17th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Copenhagen, 1-3 July 2013.
Pauline Barrieu gave a plenary lecture at AFIR-ERM Colloquium, Lyon, 24-26 June 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk at the workshop ‘Methods of Chaos Detection and Predictability: Theory and Applications (MCDPTA13)’ at the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, 17-21 June 2013.
Emma Suckling and Hailiang Du presented at the 2013 SIAM Conference on Mathematical and Computational Issues in the Geosciences in Padova, Italy, 17-20 June 2013. Du’s talk was entitled Du: ‘Pseudo-Orbit Data Assimilation for Atmospheric GCMs', Abstract. Emma’s talk was entitled ‘Pseudo-Orbit Gradient Descent for Lagrangian Data Assimilation', Abstract.
Leonard Smith, David Stainforth, Erica Thompson and Ewelina Sienkiewicz took part in a closed workshop on 17-18 June at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency led by Professor Arthur Petersen; they formed part of a panel of earth science experts who reflected on the way uncertainty is characterised in the 'Final Government Distribution' of the Summary of Policymakers (SPM) for the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC assessment report.
Nick Watkins gave a poster at the 3rd annual conference of the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, 14 June 2013.
Erica Thompson gave a talk to a school group, in West Hampstead, 24 April 2013, who invited her to counter their Geography teacher's climate sceptic viewpoint!
Jim Baker gave a presentation on the Climate Extremes report at a meeting of the World-Wide Human Geography Data Working Group at Columbia University's Earth Institute, New York, 18 April 2013. See https://wwhgd.org/sites/default/files/April/ColumbiaAnn.pdf)
Erica Thompson, Leonard Smith and Edward Wheatcroft attended the 91st European Study Group with Industry, University of Bristol, 15-19 April 2013 .
David Stainforth and Ewelina Sienkiewicz attended the 'Workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models', Met Office, Exeter, 15-19 April 2013.
EGU General Assembly 2013, Vienna, 7-12 April 2013: Leonard Smith presented a short course: 'Predictability in Theory and Predictability in Practice', 9 April 2013. Ewelina Sienkiewicz presented a poster by A. S. Jarman and L.A. Smith entitled 'Forecasting the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation: the reliability of NHC forecasts from the 2012 hurricane season', 11 April 2013, Abstract. Also at EGU, Nick Watkins gave four presentations: 'The scaling of wild events in stochastic models: The Fisher limit, the Mandelbrot limit, and FARIMA as a model of the intermediate cases', 'Bayesian Analysis of Non-Gaussian Long-Range Dependent Processes', 'Compound Extremes and Bunched Black (or Grouped Grey) Swans'. 'A spatio-temporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century' Nick Watkins and David Stainforth co-authored two presentations given by Sandra Chapman, 'Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution' and 'An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution', 8-12 April 2013. Abstracts.
Ana Lopez was invited to a seminar on 'Developing Adaptation Strategies under uncertainty', in the Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, University of Buenos Aires, 3 April 2013.
Pauline Barrieu spoke at the 'Extremes and Model Uncertainty - A Multidisciplinary Workshop', Imperial College, 26 March 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Unpopular Essays of Juergen Kurths: Practicalities and Predictability' at the Nonlinear Data Analysis and Modeling: Advances, Applications, Perspectives Conference, Potsdam, Germany, 21-22 March 2013. Abstract.
Erica Thompson gave a talk to a community group in Buckinghamshire on the subject of 'Climate Change: what we know and what we don't know' on 19 March 2013, which was very well attended, and the discussion of uncertainty was well received by the audience.
Swenja Surminski hosted and chaired two science-practitioner sessions (session with science-practitioners interactions): ‘uncertainty and decision making’ and ‘loss and damage of climate change’ at the ECCA conference in Hamburg, 18-20 March 2013. Swenja also presented on ‘role of private sector in adaptation’. Speakers included, Ana Lopez who gave a talk entitled 'Loss and damage: a physical science perspective' and Dave Stainforth who participated in a panel discussion entitled: 'Addressing Uncertainties in National Adaptation Strategies.'
Nick Watkins gave an invited talk to the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications annual meeting on 14 March 2013.
David Stainforth gave a presentation at the EQUIP workshop: 'Strengthening resilience through improved treatment of uncertainty in weather, climate and impacts' at the Royal Society, 13-14 March 2013. The title of the presentation was; 'Equipping Users While Maintaining the Credibility of Science.' Slides.
David Stainforth gave a seminar entitled: 'How big an ensemble do we need to quantify the climate of a climate model?', University of Chicago, February 2013.
Jim Baker gave a presentation on the national security implications of the Climate Extremes report at a Climatedesk conference in Washington DC, 27 February 2013 - Details.
Ana Lopez presented a statement entitled 'Are loss and damages climate stressors attributable to global warming', in 'Perspectives on Loss & Damage: Society, Climate Change, and Decision Making' at a Scientific Conference in Bonn, 25-27 February 2013.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk on 'Two-way communication with decision makers on uncertainties of climate science' at the AAAS Annual Meeting 2013, Boston, 14-18 February 2013. Abstract.
Nick Watkins gave a presentation on 'Dissipative and Non-dissipative Models for Correlated Wild Fluctuations in Complex Geosystems' at the NeSEE Conference, Reading, 11 January 2013. Presentation slides.
Leonard Smith spoke at the AGU Fall Meeting 2012, San Francisco, 3-7 December 2012. His invited talk was on 'Queuing the wrong U?'. Talk slides, and he also delivered a talk with CATS Research Officer Emma Suckling, entitled 'Increasing the relevance of GCM simulations for Climate Services'. Talk slides.
Swenja Surminski gave an invited presentation on ‘risk engineering’ at the Meeting of the Working Group of the Climate Risk and Insurance (CR+I) Project of the Geneva Association, Zurich. Partner: industry. December 2012.
Swenja Surminski led the LSE/Munich Re academic symposium on ‘Insurance in emerging markets: determinants of growth and the case of climate change?’ Conference proceedings published on CCCEP/GRI website, 21 November 2012.
Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Guidance, Information or Probability Forecast:
Where Do Ensembles Aim?' at the International Conference on Ensemble Methods in Geophysical Sciences, Toulouse, France, 12-16 November 2012.
Swenja Surminski gave an invited key note on role of private sector in adaptation at Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) Annual Assembly ‘Supporting the Journey to Adaptation’ at Aston University Business School Conference Centre, Birmingham, 12-13 November 2012.
Leonard Smith gave a keynote speech entitled 'Predictability and Understanding of Our Climate Risk: Approximations, Bugs and Insight' at the 8th IEEE International Conference on eScience, Chicago, 8-12 October 2012. Talk slides.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk at the Royal Society Theo Murphy International Scientific Meeting on ‘Handling uncertainty in weather and climate prediction, with application to health, agronomy, hydrology, energy and economics', 4-5 October 2012. The talk was entitled 'Probabilistic prediction without probabilities'.
Swenja Surminski gave an invited presentation at A4ID ‘Lawyers Eradicating Poverty’ symposium on Loss and Damage – topic: legal and regulatory issues stemming from the loss and damage framework under the UNFCCC, London, 25 September 2012. http://a4id.org/event/loss-damage-micro-insurance.
Leonard Smith gave a talk about the Ensemble Design Workshop at NCAR, 10-12 September 2012. The talk was on 'Preface to rational resource allocation in operational forecasting'.
Leonard Smith gave a talk at the NCAR workshop 'Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach', Boulder, Colorado, 6-17 August 2012. His talk was entitled 'Distinguishing uncertainty, diversity and insight'.
David Stainforth gave a series of lectures at the June 2012 LSE Executive Summer School on 'Climate Change: Economics and Governance'.
Leonard Smith was a featured speaker at the 32nd Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston, 25 June 2012. His talk was entitled 'Predictability and Insight: Contrasting the achievable aims of forecasting in weather like cases and climate like cases'.
Roman Frigg gave a keynote talk on ‘Clouds over Climate Modelling’ at the Bristol Graduate Conference on Philosophy and Climate Change, University of Bristol, 9 June 2012.
Leonard Smith gave a talk at the 'Implications for Insurance of Model Dependency and Misuse' event at Lloyd's Old Library, London, 6 June 2012. The event was held by the Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Network (FS KTN) and the Lighthill Risk Network, and Dr. Smith's talk was entitled Minimising Model 'Misuse': Communicating both Imprecision and Inadequacy in Uncertainty Management. Abstract.
Reason Machete, a Visiting Fellow to CATS, gave a talk entitled 'Inflation forecasting: Approaching the calibration mirage' at the Bank of England, 1 June 2012.
Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled ‘Die Kurzsichtigkeit Chaotischer Modelle’ ('The Myopia of chaotic models'), University of Bern, Switzerland, 30 May 2012.
Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled ‘Extreme Modelling, Extreme theories, Extreme Statistics and the understanding of Rare, Unusual, or Extreme Events’ at the Aggregation, Inference and Rare Events in the Natural and Socio-economic Sciences event, University of Warwick, 17-18 May 2012.
Ana Lopez gave a keynote talk on ‘Developing adaptation strategies under uncertainty: An example from the water sector’ in the Climate Change – Planning for Adaptation session at the IWA World Congress on Water, Climate and Energy, 14-17 May 2012.
CATS presented talks and posters at the EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria, 22-27 April 2012.
Ana Lopez gave a talk on ‘Using climate models to inform adaptation of climate change’, and held a debate with Professor Suraje Dessai in the annual Earth System Spring School, Southampton, 29 March 2012.
Professor Michael Ghil presented a lecture at CATS entitled 'Coupled dynamic modelling of the economy and of the climate system' as part of the Munich Re programme on Evaluating the economics of climate risks and opportunities in the insurance sector, 15 March 2012.
Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Probability Forecasting: Looking Under the Hood and at the Road Ahead' at the Oxford University Mathematical Geoscience seminar, 9 March 2012.
Swenja Surminski presented a technical report on methods and tools for loss and damage assessment at the UNFCC expert meeting on Loss and Damage, Tokyo, 26-27 March 2012.
Emma Suckling gave a talk entitled 'Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide decision relevant skill?', University of Reading, 15 March 2012.
Swenja Surminski participated in a panel discussion at the Colloquium on disaster risk transfer and adaptation at the French Senate, Paris, 8 March 2012. She outlined insurance and adaptation examples from developing countries and the developed world.
Jerome Ellepola gave a talk entitled 'The Process Synthesis Tool: Optimum decision steering in a complex process space-GTL’, February 2012.
Leonard Smith gave the Keynote Presentation ‘When does Radical Uncertainty call for Regime Change?’ for the Rationality and Decisions Research Network Workshop: ‘Radical Uncertainty’, Munich, Germany, 28 January 2012.