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Talks and Presentations 2009 - 2011

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22 November 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Real-World Challenges to Data Assimilation and Uncertainty Quantification in Big Nonlinear Models' at the Special Statistics Colloquium, University of Chicago, Chicago.  

24-28 October 2011 - CATS/Munich Re Programme Visiting Professor Arthur Petersen was on the organizing committee of a workshop entitled 'Error in the Sciences: Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Rectifying Measures', The Lorentz Centre in Leiden, Netherlands.

5-8 October 2011 - Roman Frigg gave a talk entitled 'Climate forecasting with chaos or chaos in climate forecasting?' at the EPSA 2011 Conference, Athens. 

6-13 August 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'Scientific Support for Climate Policy: Is a VVUQ analysis of today's models helpful? And where not: what then?' at the ICIS workshop 'Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification Across Disciplines', Park City, Utah.

7-8 July 2011 - Oliver Walker presented a talk entitled 'Reasoning about Unawareness: A Decision Theoretic Account' at the 'Decision, Games and Logic' Conference, Maastricht.

19-26 July 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Insight of Numbers? Distinguishing Climate Science from Climate' at the climate science symposium organised by the Société de Philosophie des Sciences. The symposium was affiliated to the 14th Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Nancy, France. 

21 June 2011 - Ralph Rayner organised the workshop 'Sweet Sea Observations: How Great Lakes Observations Can Work for You', Edison Boat Club, Detroit, USA.

14 July 2011 - Emma Suckling gave a talk entitled 'Gradient descent assimilation for the point-vortex model' at the Monsoon School on Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Data Assimilation, DARP, Bangalore, India. 

26 May 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk 'What (and who) do ensembles of climate models inform' at the Current Challenges in Climate Modelling in 2011 Conference, University of Uppsala, Sweden. 

25-27 May 2011 - Hailiang Du gave a talk entitled 'Nowcasting via Gradient Descent: Moving from Theory towards Reality' at the Predictability + Data Assimilation Conference, NORDITA (Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics), Stockholm. 

17-20 May 2011 - David Stainforth presented 'Seeking and Extracting Relevant Information: Linking Natural Science, Social Science and Policy' at the 2011 Colorado Conference on Earth System Governance: Crossing Boundaries and Building Bridges, Colorado State University, USA.

3 April 2011 - Leonard Smith presented 'Insight or numerical Engineering? The Role of Simulation Modeling in Quantitative Decision Support' at the Midas Conference on Epistemology of Modeling & Simulation: Building Bridges Between the Philosophical and Modeling Communities, University of Pittsburgh.  

23 March 2011 - Trevor Maynard gave a seminar entitled 'Modelling insurance markets: value of seasonal weather forecasts' at Cass Business School, London.

14-16 March 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'All models are wrong but some are dangerous: Philosophical aspects of statistical model selection' at the 'All Models Are Wrong' workshop, Groningen, Netherlands.

24-25 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski presented 'The Implications of Climate Model Uncertainty for Insurance and Adaptation Decision Making' at the Law and Economics of Natural Hazards Management in a Changing Climate seminar, Innsbruck.  

23 February 2011 - Leonard Smith gave an invited talk entitled 'Contrasting Weather Prediction, Climate Projection and Scientific Insight: Can technical aspects of Data Assimilation tell us about the Decision Relevance of Models?', at The Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London. 

17 February 2011 - Leonard Smith took part in discussions with congressmen as part of the ASA Advisory Committee on Climate Change Policy (ACCCP) 1st Climate Science Day meeting, Capitol Hill, Washington DC.

14 February 2011 - Henry Wynn gave a seminar entitled 'Use Algebraic methods to study complex experimental designs' at European Centre for Living Technology, Venice.

14 February 2011 - 'Climate Forecasting with Chaos, or Chaos in Climate Forecasting', a public lecture given by Roman Frigg, Philosophy@LSE, London.

10-11 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski gave a talk entitled "Adaptation to climate extremes: Investigating the role of the private sector - the case of the insurance industry" at 'Economics of Natural Disasters - Bridging Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation Efforts and Strategies' workshop, Venice.  

3-4 February 2011 - Swenja Surminski presented 'Cat Risk Management: An Academic perspective - current research efforts within the industry and academia' at 'Cat Risk Management: Modelling, measuring, managing and minimising cat risk', London.

19-21 January 2011 - Leonard Smith gave a talk on 'Justifying Complexity and Expense to Decision Makers' at the 'Equipping society for climate change through improved treatments of uncertainty conference', EQUIP Conference, Leeds. Other CATS Posters at this event.



13-17 December 2010 - Nicola Ranger presented 'Revisiting the Generation and Interpretation of Climate Information for Adaptation Decision Making' at the AGU Fall Meeting 2010, San Francisco.

22 October 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Scientific Modelling in Support of Decision Making:Skill and Value, Nonlinearity and Credibility' at the Climate Decision Making Center, Carnegie Mellon University.

12 October 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Toward decision-relevant probability distributions: Communicating ignorance, uncertainty and model-noise' at the International Underwriting Association's Catastrophe Modelling 2010 Seminar.

6 October 2010 - Hailiang Du presented a talk entitled 'Nowcasting with Indistinguishable States', University of Reading

12-16 July 2010 - CATS presentations at the 11th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology (IMSC), Edinburgh.

11-14 July 2010 - Max Fehr and Pauline Barrieu organized two sessions for the 'Energy and Emissions Markets' stream of the Euro XXIV (24th European Conference on Operational Research), Lisbon. Max also gave a talk 'Option Pricing in the European Unions Emission Trading Scheme'. Abstract.

10-12 June 2010 - Arthur Petersen (joint with Leonard Smith) presented a workshop paper  'Reframing the Reliability of Models: Moving from Error to Quality for Use' at the ESF workshop 'Exploring Epistemic Shifts in Computer Based Environmental Sciences', Aarhus University, Denmark.

10 June 2010 - Thomas Stemler gave a seminar presentation entitled 'Stochastic Modelling of Deterministic Systems', LSE.

7-11 June 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Extracting Insight from Predictions of the Irrelevant: Can the Diversity in Our Models Inform Our Uncertainty of the Future?' at the 28th International Conference on Mathematical Geophysics Modelling Earth Dynamics: Complexity, Uncertainty and Validation, Pisa.

27-31 May 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Climate Prediction: Lessons from Simple Non-Linear Systems' at the Birkeland Workshop on Complex Natural Systems, Tromso, Norway. He also presented 'Climate Change: Controversy, Communication and Debate' at an evening outreach session.

13 May 2010 - Arthur Petersen (Munich Re Visiting Professor) presented 'Improving the IPCC's uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses', LSE.

7-9 May 2010 - Leonard Smith presented a plenary talk 'The Bayesian's Burden: Non-linear Models, Probability and Insight', at the Models & Simulations IV Conference, University of Toronto.

2-7 May 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Can we expect to predict the climate when we cannot shadow the weather?' at the EGU General Assembly 2010, Vienna. Download Paper.

26-28 April 2010 - Leonard Smith and Pauline Barrieu presented 'Examining Uncertainties In Climate Models: Forecasting The Impact Of Best And Worst Case Climate Scenarios On The Future Of The ILS Market' at the 2nd ILS Summit Europe, Le Meridien Picadilly, London.

9-10 April 2010 - Max Fehr presented 'Modeling Emission Trading Schemes' at Industrial-Academic Forum on Commodities, Energy Markets, and Emissions Trading, Fields Institute, Toronto.

9 April 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'The Bayesian's Burden: Or Why Physicists Shrug and Statisticians Scoff" at NCAS/NERC Earth System Science Summer School, York.

8 April 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Getting beyond the statistics: Towards Quantifying the Geometry of Model Error' at RMetS meeting on model error, MO, Exeter.

22 March 2010 - Leonard Smith and Nicholas Stern presented 'Uncertainty, Ambiguity and Risk in Forming Climate Policy' at Handling uncertainty in science, Royal Society, London. Abstract.

16 March 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Climate Models: Current Science and Common Sense', chaired by Professor Nancy Cartwright, at the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Lecture - part of  the ESRC Festival of Social Science, LSE.

12 March 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Using Empirically Inadequate Models to inform Your Subjective Probabilities: How might Solvency II inform climate change decisions?' at Oxford Maths Institute meeting on 'Climate: Methods for Model Comparison and Criticism in the context of data assimilation', Oxford.

24 February 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Translating Seasonal Forecasts into Year Ahead Hurricane Numbers: The Outlook and Some Recent Advances in ENSEMBLES' at Environmental Risk Management workshop (NERC + Maths KTN), Lloyds.

18 February 2010 - Leonard Smith presented (with comments by Roman Frigg) 'Causation and explanation in our nonlinear world' at Barcelona Conference on Causality and Explanation in Physics, Biology and Economics.

17-19 February 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Challenges in the Extraction of Decision Relevant Information from Multi-Decadal Ensembles of GCMs' at SAMSI workshop on Climate Change. Abstract.

3 February 2010 - Leonard Smith, Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley presented 'Decision-Making with Climate Models' at LSE Choice Group seminar, LSE. Abstract.

28-29 January 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Examining Uncertainties In Climate Models: Forecasting The Impact Of Best And Worst Case Climate Scenarios On The Future Of The ILS Market' at 7th Insurance Linked Securities (ILS) Summit, New York.

25-29 January 2010 - Leonard Smith presented 'Evaluating high dimensional models given only a few observations: Anomalies, re-analyses and reality' at workshop Exploring Complex Dynamics in High-Dimensional Chaotic Systems: From Weather Forecasting to Oceanic Flows (ECODYC10), at MPIPKS, Dresden.

13-15 January 2010 - David Stainforth presented 'Difficulties in Deriving Forecast Probabilities From General Circulation Models and Efforts to Estimate Uncertainty in Future Climate projections' at 'Nonstationarity, Hydrologic Frequency Analysis and Water Resource Management' workshop, Boulder, Colorado and the EQUIP launch meeting. Abstract.



15 December 2009 - AGU Fall Meeting 2009, San Francisco - Leonard Smith presented 'Quantitative Decision Support Requires Quantitative Use Guidance: Communicating deep-uncertainty and model-noise' (Contributed talk). David Stainforth presented 'The Search for Relevant Climate Change Information to Support Adaptation Decision Makers: Lessons from Reductionism, Emergence and the Past' (Contributed talk). David Stainforth also presented 'Uncertainty Estimation in Regional Climate Change: Extracting Robust Information from Perturbed Physics Ensembles' (Contributed talk).

9-10 December 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Using Ensemble Prediction Systems to improve risk management in the Energy Markets' at Weather Challenges for the Energy Market, Berlin.

16 November 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Poster title 1: On Weighting Seasonal Models' and 'Poster title 2: Evaluating Model Skill Relative to a Dynamic Climatology' at Ensembles Final Symposium, Exeter.

4-6 November 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Data Assimilation for Earth System Models: What's the Point?' at WCRP-CLIVAR: Initialization of Earth System Models for Decadal Predictions, at KNMI, Utrecht. Workshop final report.

15 October 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Toward Decision-Relevant Probability Distributions: Communicating Ignorance, Uncertainty, and Model-Noise' at Defra/Met Office, Royal Society/RMetS meeting on the science of the UK Climate Projections.

28-30 September 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'One Two Three More: Challenges to Describing a Warmer World' at the '4 degrees and beyond' Conference, Oxford.

13-16 September 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Experimental Design and Interpretation of Policy-relevant Climate Model Ensembles' at the SAMSI 2009-10 Program on Space-time Analysis for Environmental Mapping, Epidemiology and Climate Change, Opening workshop on Climate Change.

27 August 2009 - Leonard Smith (with David Stainforth, Ana Lopez and Edward Tredger) presented 'Climate Models and their Information Content for the Insurance Industry' to the ABI Climate Change Data Seminar.

3 August 2009 - Leonard Smith (with David Stainforth, Ana Lopez and Edward Tredger) presented 'Data Assimilation: What's the point?' at American Statistical Association/JSM, Washington DC.

31 July 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'When might a climate model prove fit for purpose? Expected Uncertainty -or- Big Surprise' at Max Planck Meeting, Dresden.

20 July 2009 - Leonard Smith (with Ana Lopez, David Stainforth, Ed Tredger and Roman Binter) presented 'How does the diversity in our models inform us about the uncertainty in our future?' at Symposium I of the Munich Re programme of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy: Interpreting Models in a Climate Change Context, London. Objectives and other talks of Symposium I.

16 June 2009 - Visegrad Summer School Lectures, Budapest.

16 April 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Seeing Through our Models: Coping with an inconvenient ignorance in a changing climate' at Cutting Edge Lecture, McGill University.

14 April 2009 - Leonard Smith presented 'Risk and Uncertainty: Understanding the Limits of Predictability' at GEOSS Small Sea Change: Big Business Impacts Meeting, Washington DC.

16 February 2009 - Leonard Smith gave a talk entitled 'You don't have to believe everything you compute' at the NERC/Maths KTN joint workshop on 'Statistical modelling of weather, climate and weather risks for insurance' at Lloyds of London Old Library.

10 February 2009 - Leonard Smith gave evidence to the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 'Uncertainty in Climate Projections' - a day of discussion supporting the RCEP study on 'Adapting the UK to Climate Change', Met Office, Exeter.